Model output discussion 14/04/18

[ChezWeather]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hmm I might be going against the grain here but there is a fly in the ointment at a very short timescale developing. We still have no agreement on how the approaching Atlantic trough behaves over the weekend and where any potential cut off low goes if this forms at all. The GEM shows it stalling close to the UK bringing showers and cooler conditions for next week and frankly given the uncertainty over this you couldn't discount a cold pool landing over the UK. On the other hand the trough could still clear eastwards cleanly or even sink west of the UK and feed into the low south west of the UK which could push hot air further north next week.

I am not making any call here, the broad trend is clear but it doesn't take into account the possibility of disturbances which could take away the generally warm and sunny outlook.

I think a short term blip would be welcomed by many who are wanting some much needed rainfall, lets just hope the general pattern for July is warm and sunny!

Personally, id be happy with the good old "three fine days and a thunderstorm" weather 

[Mike Poole]

GFS out to T192:

Possibility of some thundery outbreaks for the south in the middle of that I'd imagine, but fantastic by t192.  

[Dominic Carey]

Great output on the models this evening 

[Mike Poole]

GEM has a much messier middle bit, but the destination is the same at the end of the run:

Good 12 set so far, wonder what the ECM will make of it all?

Edit: just want to add the jet stream plot from the GEM at T240, nicely illustrates where it is, and where it isn't!

Edited June 29, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Although the Gem 12z has a messier middle bit next week, it's still mostly very warm / hot both this weekend and most of next week, especially across inland parts of southern uk..there's then a brief cooler blip and then the run ends like this, warm / very warm and sunny..even the so called poorer output looks better than the usual uk summer dross doesn't it!

Edited June 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

27 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

I think a short term blip would be welcomed by many who are wanting some much needed rainfall, lets just hope the general pattern for July is warm and sunny!

Personally, id be happy with the good old "three fine days and a thunderstorm" weather 

Messy has a habit of becoming something more sinister, we now have a low being modelled at three days out where one model has it close to Scotland whilst another has it off the NW coast of Norway. That is several hundred miles and hardly inspires confidence in the further outlook as the precise location could have knock on effects down the line.

I am not against seeing some instability or even a few bands of rain from time to time. Knowing luck it will park itself over the north sea and plague eastern areas whilst the west continues to roast (GEM) wasn't far off doing that.

[shaky]

Amazing how different the gfs and ukmo are at 72 hours!!ukmo takes a small shortwave through scotland and then north east!!gfs clears it way to the north!!hopefully ukmo is an outlier although it probably wont make much of a difference in the end and to he fair ukmo is still pretty hot and sunny all the way to 144 hours!!arpege still scorching for sunday and monday!!over to the ecm and hopefully clears that shortwave away further north!!

[philglossop]

On 27/06/2018 at 21:17, Mike Poole said:

Having watched pretty much all the 12z output, I think we need a direction of travel, and I think the FIM9 is a reasonable average of the output this afternoon here right through to T240:

 

If we get a thunderstorm breakdown in early July, that will simply mirror early July 1995. And look how that turned out  

[blizzard81]

I have come out of my winter hibernation for once due to the exceptional weather we are experiencing. I love extremes and it's about time the UK had something memorable with regards to the weather. This year is very exciting in that regards. I will only take notice of the gem if the ecm veers anywhere near it on it's next run. 

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Messy has a habit of becoming something more sinister, we now have a low being modelled at three days out where one model has it close to Scotland whilst another has it off the NW coast of Norway. That is several hundred miles and hardly inspires confidence in the further outlook as the precise location could have knock on effects down the line.

I am not against seeing some instability or even a few bands of rain from time to time. Knowing luck it will park itself over the north sea and plague eastern areas whilst the west continues to roast (GEM) wasn't far off doing that.

But...given that 'our old friend inertia' (How! for older viewers) is getting mentioned ever more frequently, I think I'll stick with the Met Office's outlook, rather than dissect each wee model 'blip' that emerges ...for now!

[ancientsolar]

Long way a way... to next sunday and surely has to change.. though after the temperatures of 32 33 ish.. i'm not sure .. ~ but that chart represents something of near record breaking temperatures.. +219hours
GFS 

+ 240 hours ~ high pressure really starting to center over us.


indoors.. here it's 25 at night.. and 27 now ... horrible nights sleep!! It'll all be worth it if I can record some thunderstorms.. .. perhaps i'll check on the rivers in the Welsh valleys ! ~ What i'd give to be in Spain right now... just for some air conditioned cheap hotel room! 

Edited June 29, 2018 by ancientsolar

[Mike Poole]

Now we're into this heat wave, we should keep our eye on the red stuff from the south.  Pick of the GEFS ensembles is P14:

 

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Fabulous GEFS 12z mean, staying hot this weekend and throughout next week across southern uk and very warm / hot for much of the following week too, warm / very warm elsewhere and predominantly settled with strong high pressure / ridge influence..to me there is no end in sight to this generally gorgeous summery spell!

Edited June 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Took the ECM one more frame to get there than the UKMO but we'll let that go.  T168:

Go the heat, summer 2018cool bananas!

[knocker]

De;eted.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by knocker

[Methuselah]

47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Now we're into this heat wave, we should keep our eye on the red stuff from the south.  Pick of the GEFS ensembles is P14:

 

 

Exactly! El Scorchio a definite possibility...

[Frosty.]

Stellar Ecm 12z unfolding again this evening..the heat goes on for most of the uk!..wow what a beauty, high pressure strengthening again later!...Epic T+240

Edited June 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Exceptional ECM 12z tonight, here's the last three frames:

that last one is monster! 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Exceptional ECM 12z tonight, here's the last three frames:

that last one is monster! 

It really is isn't it? This year feels so different. Love your posts Mike. Keep them coming

[draztik]

that last chart Mike posted is rather scary indeed, and what could develop from it, thereafter. This is now turning into a particularly unpleasant situation. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

that last chart Mike posted is rather scary indeed, and what could develop from it, thereafter. This is now turning into a particularly unpleasant situation. 

Speak for yourself lol  

[Leo97t]

5 minutes ago, draztik said:

that last chart Mike posted is rather scary indeed, and what could develop from it, thereafter. This is now turning into a particularly unpleasant situation. 

Explain

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Speak for yourself lol  

If draztik isn't happy then you know the model output must be excellent. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

If draztik isn't happy then you know the model output must be excellent. 

I think he means hot and sweaty

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Speak for yourself lol  

Indeed, for the vast majority these are dream charts in a wonderful prolonged summery spell pretty much nationwide..it may be hell for a few but it's heaven for most..long may it continue..if the Ecm 12z day 10 chart is anywhere close..expect most of July to be fantastic!