Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Methuselah]

Whatever happens down the line, only something with a huge amount of momentum will change the overall pattern we currently have (okay, there are bound to be one-or-two minor attacks from the NE, NW or SW) but where is that 'something' going to come from?

I don't know, I cannot see it. Can anyone else?

[Sky Full]

Here are the animated projections from the ICON 7km and ARPEGE 0.1 for accumulated rainfall over the next five days:

    

Both these short range models show very little rainfall with only the far south west and far north west likely to receive measurable amounts.  Given the lack of rain generally over the last few weeks I can see hose pipe bans ahead....possibly as early as July.

 

[CheesepuffScott]

That's a boiler of an Arpege run for Sun/Mon.. low 30s for most of central/southern England. I see it has not done too badly with predicted temperatures in the short run, wonder if this will actually play out, or an over estimation? Well I personally hope for the former!

[Mike Poole]

GEM going straight for the settled option, here T240:

Edited June 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[cobby]

58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

To be honest I think even for Devon/Cornwall it isn't set in stone for thunderstorms. Your location is probably the hardest to predict of all for next week. But I think the 5th to the 8th look increasingly good down there. 

Well the models David Braine is seeing show a brief thundery few days the a return to dry weather

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, CheesepuffScott said:

That's a boiler of an Arpege run for Sun/Mon.. low 30s for most of central/southern England. I see it has not done too badly with predicted temperatures in the short run, wonder if this will actually play out, or an over estimation? Well I personally hope for the former!

I feel it's very consistent within 48 hours but sometimes makes placement errors beyond that timescale. Other models concentrating the heat a little further E? 

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I feel it's very consistent within 48 hours but sometimes makes placement errors beyond that timescale. Other models concentrating the heat a little further E? 

Hi mate whats the ecm temp projections for weekend into next week!!latest gfs gives mid to high twenties comfortably up to 168 hours across england!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hi mate whats the ecm temp projections for weekend into next week!!latest gfs gives mid to high twenties comfortably up to 168 hours across england!!

Last week gfs gave projections for this week around 27/28c. So expect some 30s next week

Edited June 28, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Allseasons-Si]

Well!,well!,well!

the 8-14 dayer from cpc is high preasure in change,the 6-10 dayer isn't too shabby either

a few days ago there was the potencial threat of the Iberian low playing havoc from the S/SW bringing a thundery breakdown,that looks like that will be a bust

i am liking this prelonged spell of summery weather and i hope it continues into the second week of July as i am heading for the isle of skye for a weeks holiday hiking,swimming and sea fishing

but in the back of my mind,a welcome of rain to dampen the fires over the peak district would help the firefighters and the army some what but that doesn't look likely,i do hope they get it under control soon,bless them

 

Edited June 28, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hi mate whats the ecm temp projections for weekend into next week!!latest gfs gives mid to high twenties comfortably up to 168 hours across england!!

ECM up to 30C in central southern areas on Sunday - so perhaps 32/33C?

For the rest of the week, always high 20s.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM up to 30C in central southern areas on Sunday - so perhaps 32/33C?

For the rest of the week, always high 20s.

Amazing stuff!!theres some days where the ecm only has 850s of 9 degrees in england yet still gives high twenties!!madness!!

[TJS1998Tom]

Looking good beyond day 10 if it plays out with the latest GFS run

[Sky Full]

GFS at +264:   

ECM at +240:.  

GEM at +240:   

All in reasonably close agreement given that this is 10 days away.   Does this make the dominance of the Azores high in mid-July a certainty?  About the same odds as England beating Columbia I'd guess.....

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well!,well!,well!

the 8-14 dayer from cpc is high preasure in change,the 6-10 dayer isn't too shabby either

a few days ago there was the potencial threat of the Iberian low playing havoc from the S/SW bringing a thundery breakdown,that looks like that will be a bust

i am liking this prelonged spell of summery weather and i hope it continues into the second week of July as i am heading for the isle of skye for a weeks holiday hiking,swimming and sea fishing

but in the back of my mind,a welcome of rain to dampen the fires over the peak district would help the firefighters and the army some what but that doesn't look likely,i do hope they get it under control soon,bless them

 

inconsistent though... they had been showing troughing. they, like all model suits have been struggling to define whats likely to happen from this weekend and beyond.

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

inconsistent though... they had been showing troughing. they, like all model suits have been struggling to define whats likely to happen from this weekend and beyond.

Have been struggling, not anymore though the signal is pretty consistent and strongly supported.

[mb018538]

Ecm sets up another easterly flow by 240 hours....how many easterlies can we get in one year! Amazing how many we’ve seen in 2018.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is another cracker and the azores high builds in strongly towards the end which would strengthen and extend this glorious spell well into july..it could go on and on..and on!

Edited June 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Brilliant charts Frosty, I mean Karl...If it's heat & sunshine you're looking for, it's hard to imagine anything better!

[mb018538]

Anyone want to hazard a guess on ppn amounts?

Some GFS members go fairly wet towards the end of next week....some such as the OP show barely a trace in the next 10 days. I guess it's going to be very hard to pin down, as it'll be convective showery rain rather than frontal. Some places inevitably going to remain dry, with nothing on the horizon.

[northwestsnow]

Another fabulous EC mean this morning out to day 10-

EC keen on the idea of a renewed push of the azores high by day 8/9.

[Red Raven]

Still no rain for the north. Here in Cumbria is extremely dry, young trees are beginning to show signs of die-back and the rivers/lakes very low. 

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Another fabulous EC mean this morning out to day 10-

EC keen on the idea of a renewed push of the azores high by day 8/9.

Yes another really strong finish as was the case with the operational, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows  a very nice sw / ne alignment for the azores high to surge in and prolong this exceptional spell of very summery weather.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

ECM raw data maximums exceed 27C somewhere every single day until D10, so not inconceivable that 30C would be threatened every day until the weekend 6/7 July (when the heat actually re-intensifies).

Still early days but looking like the heatwave may go into week 3 unbroken. I wouldn't completely rule out one thundery washout day next week, though, looking at the charts.

Last night's EC clusters D11-D15 developed a bit of split: Cluster 1 (55%) is a full-on heatwave for week 3, Cluster 2 (45%) is not completely settled in the north (though still fair), the south remains under the influence of good heights so largely dry and warm I'd imagine.

 

[summer blizzard]

As highlighted the Euro attempts a messy breakdown in about 5 days but flops because the high never leaves Scandinavia and as such the next ridge just absorbs the old one..

For those of us who want an end to this hell, our hopes rest with that most consistent and highest performing of models (i jest of course) the GFS which this morning is somewhat more successful.

[mb018538]

19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As highlighted the Euro attempts a messy breakdown in about 5 days but flops because the high never leaves Scandinavia and as such the next ridge just absorbs the old one..

For those of us who want an end to this hell, our hopes rest with that most consistent and highest performing of models (i jest of course) the GFS which this morning is somewhat more successful.

Indeed.



The GFS op this morning around that period (5th onwards) is pretty much bottom of the pile - so overly pessimistic I feel. I'd fully expect something much closer to the ECM outcome.