Model output discussion 14/04/18

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z goes the slow route from day 7, the high weakens and stays north of the UK allowing weak areas of low pressure to slip underneath (hence why it's potentially wet, stalled thundery fronts).

[mb018538]

QUite odd really, as the gfs ensembles show a fair amount of ppn spikes...but the ecm clusters posted earlier show nothing but high pressure?

[Captain Shortwave]

Still uncertainty regarding early next week regarding that Iberian low, the ECM feeds this a little bit which actually allows the heat over France to push across into the UK with the 90f mark likely reached across the south east on Sunday. The south west looks at risk of some thunderstorms for a short while.

The GFS has no interaction of the Atlantic trough with that low over the weekend whilst the UKMO is sort of a middle ground.

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144 is just awesome 

I would like to see where that run goes for there, GEM ends well too  

Summer 18 - we'll be talking about it for decades!

I would like to add the GEFS 12z mean is awesome too, keeps things warm / very warm throughout, especially further south and with plenty of azores high / ridge influence...so, predominantly settled but also a chance of some thundery continental weather too. I would say the first half of July is currently looking potentially very good.

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z looking very good next week too, blocking high to the NE the dominant feature and the uk bathed in warm / very warm air..more of the same as we have now..i.e..predominantly fine with plenty of hot sunshine and probably a more humid feel and the risk of a few T-Storms for a time, especially for the sw / w but then another surge from the azores high towards the end of next week..looks great.    

Edited June 28, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Yes tonight's ECM is now as you would expect from a small cut off low coming up against a block to the east. The lows are diverted either south or north, and don't get straight through the middle. 

The charts this evening don't suggest wall to wall sunshine after the middle of next week, but staying warm throughout and once again, for next weekend, our next round of high pressure moves in. 

[mb018538]

Cracking ECM...summer 2018 says full steam ahead!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay, remaining summery through whole of EC run, takes us up to middle of Wimbledon

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z whizzes past the slightly unstable middle period, and then it's a hugely strong ridge, T216 and T240:

Edited June 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Superb finish to the Ecm 12z..BANK!

[Craig84]

Blimey, that’s what you call a classic summer set up! Cracking ECM

 

 

[Dominic Carey]

Amazing ECM charts tonight!!

[Snowjokes92]

I cant actually believe nothing is giving another possible 10 days of more dry and warm/hot weather for the country and thats at least 10 days given the output. Okay maybe more instability mid week, but not everyone will see thunderstorms. But im sure many would welcome a downpour. But even in the event of a few downpours, its no where near enough, especially how most the output is so so dry

Edited June 28, 2018 by Snowjokes92

[shaky]

Amazing ecm heatwave all the way to the end!!better than gfs aswell!!full house tonight folks!!could do with sundays iberian low further south and west but thats being picky!!

[h2005__uk__]

I know GFS undercooks temperatures, but yesterday it had mid-20s for mid-Wales when the actual max was 31C, then today it had a high of 25C and some places there reached 33C!

[Stormeh]

Can someone let me know what it will be like in Devon and Cornwall from 1st July to 8th July. I see some showers or thunderstorms are possible. I love a good storm but I am hoping it stays dry and warm during the day 

[Northern Sky]

15 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

I cant actually believe nothing is giving another possible 10 days of more dry and warm/hot weather for the country and thats at least 10 days given the output. Okay maybe more instability mid week, but not everyone will see thunderstorms. But im sure many would welcome a downpour. But even in the event of a few downpours, its no where near enough, especially how most the output is so so dry

Agreed. It's not a good outlook for arable farmers. Things are starting to look pretty desperate. I do love the sunshine but everything is starting to look jaded, we could really do with a day or two of rain.

[Captain Shortwave]

To think we would have had almost two weeks of fine and very warm weather when we reach this point, and this chart is an absolute classic heatwave chart with a strong ridge building across pretty much the entirety of Europe with very warm air embedded and the chance of some real heat moving north from Spain beyond this point. There was certainly support from the morning ECM ens at least for this too. 

It really has been a crazy year with a very continental style climate setting up from February onwards and there seems to be little to suggest that this will change as we enter July.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ensemble mean still rock solid on building the ridge back in, here T240:

and runners up in Group G is probably better for England!  

Edited June 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

33 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Agreed. It's not a good outlook for arable farmers. Things are starting to look pretty desperate. I do love the sunshine but everything is starting to look jaded, we could really do with a day or two of rain.

Im not sure why things are 'desperate'. We've just had one of the Top 10 wettest Aprils all time, surely theres plenty of water to keep us going through a hot dry summer.  Id say things are concerning but not desperate.

Edited June 28, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Sweatyman]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z ensemble mean still rock solid on building the ridge back in, here:

and runners up in Group G is probably better for England!  

Yes! And Yes!!

[Frosty.]

Another excellent end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean to follow the operational which was exceptionally good...even before then, the warmth / heat continues and then by day 10 another strong surge from the azores high / ridge to extend this glorious spell well into July! 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another excellent end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean to follow the operational which was exceptionally good...even before then, the warmth / heat continues and then by day 10 another strong surge from the azores high / ridge to extend this glorious spell well into July! 

If this goes on for much longer Frosty, I mean Karl - the only 'excellent' runs'll be those that have some appreciable rain in 'em!

[Dbarb]

Have not had any rain in a month here and everything is bone dry, and now the models suggest none for a few weeks still...

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Stormeh said:

Can someone let me know what it will be like in Devon and Cornwall from 1st July to 8th July. I see some showers or thunderstorms are possible. I love a good storm but I am hoping it stays dry and warm during the day 

To be honest I think even for Devon/Cornwall it isn't set in stone for thunderstorms. Your location is probably the hardest to predict of all for next week. But I think the 5th to the 8th look increasingly good down there.