Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 14/04/18


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Longer term signals continue to look very good for a continuation of very summery weather well into July on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean with strong azores high / ridge influence returning which is also the case with the Gefs 00z mean..very encouraging ☀️

EDM1-240.GIF

Hopefully, Karl, we'll not see any indication of a major pattern-change until late August...? Over to the teleconnectionists...?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

We timed our school activities well this year, Year 7 trip to Bath on 5th July, Year 12 Fieldwork on the Gower Peninsula 9th July

Bath Trip.png

GowerFieldTrip.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
31 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

We timed our school activities well this year, Year 7 trip to Bath on 5th July, Year 12 Fieldwork on the Gower Peninsula 9th July

Bath Trip.png

GowerFieldTrip.png

Lol. Looks very similar to what this coming Sunday was showing last weekend. Plenty of time for change.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Gfs gets that low no where near as close with that low as the ecm does!!more hot and sunny weather well into next week according to this run!!no changes on this run!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
3 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Fair enough I had only seen today's gfs when I wrote that

The theme this summer is that any rain that appears in the models keeps being pushed back.  In recent summers you've been wondering when it will stop raining, this summer your wondering when it will start raining.

Edited by 38.5*C
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro this morning goes back to being messy with a slow moving weak low near the UK. Finally dillutes the hot uppers by about day 6. 

ECMOPEU00_144_2.png

GFS this morning dillutes the warm uppers at about the same rate but has the upper low even weaker so certainly no rainfall. 

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Total rainfall out to D10 on 00z ECM struggles to exceed 1mm for the vast majority

d2bcda6d-9f99-4730-bb0a-4aaf2c1a5940.thumb.png.adaebcf5d278c2af3d150dd86d6c8d3b.png

 

Sorry, Gavin, not following you there.

The scale below is inches.  Most of the country has in the region of 0.2 inches which is 5mm.  Am I getting something wrong, or are you?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM clusters are a total mess at shorter range this morning:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_144.

Different depths and positions of the Biscay low meaning we're not really sure what we're going to get.

Here's something you don't see too often, especially at 192+ hours!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_192.

100% agreement on a ridge to the NE, no low pressure infringements.

No change out at day 10-12 either, staying settled with no rainfall in the offing. Even day 15 still has a strong ridge - no other options, amazing really. Not even a tiny cluster of low pressure scenarios, just variations on a theme - high pressure all the way. Summer 2018 could go into the hall of fame at this rate.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_240.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_288.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_360.

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Sorry, Gavin, not following you there.

The scale below is inches.  Most of the country has in the region of 0.2 inches which is 5mm.  Am I getting something wrong, or are you?

Not you

I got it wrong that used to others using mm I forgot that is in inches

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS 6z reduces any breakdown to a brief period in a pressure no man's land at T168, before building in the ridge again, here at T240.   Lovely!

image.thumb.jpg.1acf4b9b8ba63af1ddf27464fe9a22a4.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.9fdb12869043f61cde87e9f0d9b9b6c2.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: High pressure, snow + alll extremes of weather
  • Location: Bristol

Taking a snap shot of the GFS 06z at 240. Really following the script of the 0z ensemble mean. Upper trough regrouping mid Atlantic with a downstream ridge rebuilding in our vicinity. A high pressure dominated outlook.

 

 

 

 

72980ECA-23DF-462F-AB4A-911233ADF360.jpeg

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM 00Z clusters - the op run is in the smallest cluster at T96 - though due to short lead time in needs to be given extra weight.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_096.

The low still only brushing the SW on most clusters by T144

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062800_144.

Longer term, still looking good for a renewed push of high pressure between D8 and D13. Uppers above 10C for most throughout all 15 days, again.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Belting ukmo out to 144....staying hot until Wednesday at least then!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h500slp.png h500slp.png

More of a ridge across N parts on Sunday.

h500slp.png h500slp.png

More of a ridge generally across the UK on Monday.

h500slp.png h500slp.png

Next week starting to look a lot like this week. Currently with instability a bit closer to the south but this run sees the showers restricted to Cornwall & Devon. 

Temps in the south are still into the high 20s each day as of Wednesday 4th. No breaks in there at all - truly spectacular in that sense at least.

 

Rukm1441.gif Rtavn1441.gif

UKMO 12z (left) and GFS 12z (right) for +144 hours.

UKMO's a little further N with the high but the broad area of nothing much from the previous run has gone. By 7:30 this evening we'll know whether ECM has dropped that idea too.

Not very sure how the UKMO run would progress from there, but the N. Atlantic pattern has totally stagnated so the low out west could drift around there for quite some time.

GFS has suddenly developed a low from the S for next Saturday, but it has minimal support from the jet pattern so it might just be the convective feedback error being amplified. Brings some slow-moving thunderstorms to the far south - a dramatic drought-weakener there (still warm to very warm so a lot of evaporation limiting results), but elsewhere it stays bone dry for the vast majority. Further mid-high 20s temps on offer for the N. half of the UK.

 

These additions of high pressure tie in nicely with the rapid adjustments taking place to the tropical atmosphere in the Pacific and the subsequent response of the downstream pattern across N. America, the Atlantic, and then the UK and N. Europe. In fact, I'd not rule out further increases over the next few days.

gfsgwo_1.png

That's a big kick on the positive tendency side - and some way beyond what the model was predicting yesterday. The model is still in the process of coming around, though, and the above is based of the 00z set.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
9 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

GFS 12z looks quite wet for the first week of July especially in the SW, parts of Wales along with ROI, a big change after all this hot, sunny weather we've had

image.jpeg

The problem with GFS rainfall charts is they're low-res so don't do too well modelling convective rainfall. The rainfall probably wouldn't be that widespread in reality. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

I am actually lost for words with the 12z runs so far!!the heatwave goes on and on forever lol!!ukmo and gfs are belters with high pressure slap bang over and to the east of the uk!!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
22 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

GFS 12z looks quite wet for the first week of July especially in the SW, parts of Wales along with ROI, a big change after all this hot, sunny weather we've had

image.jpeg

The way that low goes under the block is a little unconvincing  - UKMO looks like it will either track SE or N instead. Even so, it's just two days (Thurs/Fri next week) which look more showery on the GFS before we're back to settled weather. Warmth never goes. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
50 minutes ago, Singularity said:

h500slp.png h500slp.png

More of a ridge across N parts on Sunday.

h500slp.png h500slp.png

More of a ridge generally across the UK on Monday.

h500slp.png h500slp.png

Next week starting to look a lot like this week. Currently with instability a bit closer to the south but this run sees the showers restricted to Cornwall & Devon. 

Temps in the south are still into the high 20s each day as of Wednesday 4th. No breaks in there at all - truly spectacular in that sense at least.

 

Rukm1441.gif Rtavn1441.gif

UKMO 12z (left) and GFS 12z (right) for +144 hours.

UKMO's a little further N with the high but the broad area of nothing much from the previous run has gone. By 7:30 this evening we'll know whether ECM has dropped that idea too.

Not very sure how the UKMO run would progress from there, but the N. Atlantic pattern has totally stagnated so the low out west could drift around there for quite some time.

GFS has suddenly developed a low from the S for next Saturday, but it has minimal support from the jet pattern so it might just be the convective feedback error being amplified. Brings some slow-moving thunderstorms to the far south - a dramatic drought-weakener there (still warm to very warm so a lot of evaporation limiting results), but elsewhere it stays bone dry for the vast majority. Further mid-high 20s temps on offer for the N. half of the UK.

 

These additions of high pressure tie in nicely with the rapid adjustments taking place to the tropical atmosphere in the Pacific and the subsequent response of the downstream pattern across N. America, the Atlantic, and then the UK and N. Europe. In fact, I'd not rule out further increases over the next few days.

gfsgwo_1.png

That's a big kick on the positive tendency side - and some way beyond what the model was predicting yesterday. The model is still in the process of coming around, though, and the above is based of the 00z set.

Your charts highlight the way I'm currently seeing things, S: there is simply so much hot air around the Northern Hemisphere right now that it'll require something with an enormous amount of momentum to really change things; which is why I'm currently looking to the teleconnection folk for guidance...

The next thing that I can envisage (the way things currently stand) is the start of polar-vortex formation...Late August-early September?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO T144 is just awesome 

image.thumb.jpg.5b3c4b3ac4c4d903d16c7b85277df4a8.jpg

I would like to see where that run goes for there, GEM ends well too  

image.thumb.jpg.68053d14354f75cd18902495c3f663c2.jpg

Summer 18 - we'll be talking about it for decades!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...