Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Mike Poole]

And here we go again, ECM at T240:

RIDGE.  Outstanding 

 

[Snowjokes92]

OMFG  dont get me started on thay ecm 12z run. The heatwave is still to forecast to climax according to that run and even beyond it continues!!! It is a bit concerning now though. Here in west yorkshire its been extreme even for our standards. First with the deep freeze going on and on. Now its the dryness and heat. Its been quite a year especially for us up north too. Wow.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean really impressed me..plenty more very warm settled weather with strong azores high influence well into july!..fingers crossed.

Decent end to the Ecm 12z too and it's a generally warm / very warm run..summery weather to continue next week?..I think it will.

[Snowjokes92]

Upgrades and more upgrades. On top of that, this is usually the time of year where it all gos t*ts up for us too. Seems a lot different this year. Even the ensemble means and teleconnections etc dont seem to be standing in are way for a poor summer. Historic output

[Deep Snow please]

32 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM follows the UKMO but with one slight difference, the trough crossing to our north over the weekend splits with a cut off feature developing over Scandinavia which inhibits to push of heat next week from the south. The pattern is pretty messy with showers possibly breaking out. Not sure how believable the ECM is regarding this feature as the UKMO sends the entire feature east and develops a clean high to our north east.

 Plenty of heat to our south and at the moment we cannot discount this pushing north and producing some incredible temperatures, though at the moment the most intense heat stays over France, this could change and don't take anything for granted at four days or further out.

As you say though it's only minor shifts on a global modelling scale that could see that heat pool currently sat over France coming over us which would see record temperatures widespread, this is turning out to be quite a memorable summer. Hosepipe ban quite a real threat if they dry run the UKMO and ECM predict comes off, absolutely no sign of precipitation in tonight's output. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ensembles?  Here we go then with some charts from the ensemble mean, T120:

Ridge over the top as is nailed by now. T168,  interesting chart showing the wobble in settled conditions:

And at T240, the return of the ridge which we all expected.  Didn't we?

Edited June 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Having watched pretty much all the 12z output, I think we need a direction of travel, and I think the FIM9 is a reasonable average of the output this afternoon here right through to T240:

 

[Frosty.]

A really good end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean with a strong surge from the azores high / ridge..very encouraging trend from the 00z continues with the 12z and prospects for July to deliver plenty more summery weather currently looking good!

Edited June 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z ensembles?  Here we go then with some charts from the ensemble mean, T120:

Ridge over the top as is nailed by now. T168,  interesting chart showing the wobble in settled conditions:

And at T240, the return of the ridge which we all expected.  Didn't we?

A more pronounced push of heat northwards into next week on the ensembles, proably getting close to 30C on most days next week if this turns out to be reality though with pressure falling there will be the risk of showers in the south and possibly patchy rain in the north if any fronts get close enough. Not much to say regarding week 2 apart from more of the same, the GEFs are similar with the distribution of heights.

      

general return to a normal base state of westerlies but plenty of wiggle room for the pattern to remain mostly dry and warm/very warm.

 

[Man With Beard]

38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A really good end to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean with a strong surge from the azores high / ridge..very encouraging trend from the 00z continues with the 12z and prospects for July to deliver plenty more summery weather currently looking good!

And the 12C uppers line never clears the Kent coast on the mean charts either. 

That's before the next high moves in. 

So we may start the next hot phase without the previous one having ended? Usually unbelievable, but it doesn't seem unbelievable tonight. 

[Catacol]

On 26/06/2018 at 16:49, Tamara said:

But it cannot stay there forever, especially bearing in mind the contrary oceanic signals happening in the Pacific. I will be keeping a very close eye on the tropical/extra tropical cycle as we head through the first half of July for events in the Pacific triggering a significant westerly wind burst and a surge in AAM that would shake-up the synoptic pattern from any attempts to descend into cool British summer wetness.  .

High pressure in the Atlantic and/or blocking at higher latitudes and a downstream trough c/o southerly tracking jet seem much more counter intuitive than the progression of last summer which took this sort of route. Rather instead, any breakdown leading to the increasing spectre as time goes by of a trough re-setting/stalling to the west of us and high pressure over and to the east.

 

A great post as ever Tamara - as I come out of hibernation long enough to blow my nose for the zillionth time this last month, search for a cool patch anywhere in the house, and pray that rain might come to save the garden. Ugh. I make no secret of my utter loathing of hot summer weather. In my book, if you want it hot go to Greece.

Anyway - why my first post in a long while? Well - aside from the fatigue of a long winter season on NW crowned with the excitement of March I have also been watching the pacific on and off through Spring, wondering just how the engine room of the planetary weather systems might view summer 2018 with knock on effects into the winter.

MetO forecast now is fairly bullish as to a move towards El, Nino

 

Region 3.4 emerging round about now from neutral to slight positive, with a gentle gathering up towards +1 by the time we hit mid autumn. As Tamara states - if we are to get a coupling of the ocean base state with the atmosphere which has retained a Nina blueprint for a long time now then we absolutely must see a significant rise in GLAAM. It cant happen any other way. ECM MJO forecasts clearly show the spaghetti heading towards a phase 5 orbit as the MJO hits the pacific

 

and JMA's July MJO composites clearly show the strong atlantic ridge supported by this evolution through phases 5 and 6, assuming this MJO gets out of the COD

So - will we get a Nino orbit as potentially suggested above? Knife edge. I am uncertain that a very neutral ENSO appearance through most of July is going to bring that ocean/atmosphere coupling into a Nino phase quite yet - Schraldi plots with their well known low AAM bias are unexciting

and unless the Nino grows in strength faster than either the Met or the CPC are expecting then any impact looks to me to be towards the end of summer and into autumn. If that is the case then one would expect the pacific to reamplify via an unimpressive MJO phase with the likely result of the UK ridge replaced with some kind of UK trough. However the water in the equatorial pacific is warm from west into centre (Nino 4 through to Nino 3) suggesting the MJO could possibly grow through phases 5/6/7/8... and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility therefore that July sees a tropical surge with consequent impacts in the sub tropics, namely suppression of the pacific ridge with consequent downstream impacts that might see the Euro warm spell continue. After all... look what happened in February.

No polar vortex to worry about in these summer situations. Less complex.... but still complex enough to ensure that long range weather forecasting is fraught with difficulty. Where Tamara is spot on in my opinion is that the evolution of conditions in the pacific through the first fortnight in July is likely to dictate the course of the rest of the summer. 

Meanwhile my T shirt is now sticking to my back and the only solution to this misery is another cold shower. Hooray.....

 

[shaky]

Quick update before my early morning run!!ukmo and gfs and arpege all the same this morning!!biscay low further soouth again and heatwave continues well into next week!!over to you mr ecm..

[mb018538]

52 minutes ago, shaky said:

Quick update before my early morning run!!ukmo and gfs and arpege all the same this morning!!biscay low further soouth again and heatwave continues well into next week!!over to you mr ecm..

Hmmm slightly misleading, the ukmo today is still good, but not as good as last nights 12z run - uppers are lower etc.

Doesn’t look like any rain is really going to turn up until late next week at the earliest though, and even then it could be a non starter as this weekends ‘breakdown’ has turned out!

[Timmytour]

I've seen this before. Expect the warm/very warm weather to continue to around 19th July. Then it all slips back into a more Atlantic driven pattern with plenty of rain to alleviate any concerns that may have arisen by then about water shortages.

This is all part of a well known pattern of weather that often occurs over the UK in the summer.

It's known as " It Was Nice Until The Kids Broke Up For School"

[mb018538]

Just a selection of temperature charts to shown no end in sight for the heat...

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/114-582UK.GIF?28-0

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/138-582UK.GIF?28-0

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/162-582UK.GIF?28-0

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/186-582UK.GIF?28-0

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/210-582UK.GIF?28-0

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018062800/234-582UK.GIF?28-0

Maximums there - 25/26c widely Monday/Tuesday, up to 27/28c in the east Wednesday, up to 30c in the east Thursday, 26/27c widely Friday, 26/27c in the east again Saturday

 

[mb018538]

00z GFS ensembles:



Bone dry for another 7-8 days at least, then a fair few ppn spikes appearing. That said, we saw this a week ago when the weekend was forecast to be unsettled and is going to turn out fine and settled instead.

ECM is also slightly less settled than the 12z runs from last night:

    

Pressure some 5mb lower generally, though still not bad.



Trough mover over the UK by late next week which will finally give some rainfall! Could be some very hefty slow moving showers there with little or no wind around.

[Leo97t]

I see this return to unsettled weather as being fairly permenant. I think summer 2018 will go down as an extreme example of a front loaded summer. 

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I see this return to unsettled weather as being fairly permenant. I think summer 2018 will go down as an extreme example of a front loaded summer. 

Are you some sort of troll??

ECM day 10 - high pressure building



GEM day 10 - high pressure building



Literally none of the models are pushing a return to a long unsettled regime.

[Leo97t]

Fair enough I had only seen today's gfs when I wrote that

[northwestsnow]

43 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I see this return to unsettled weather as being fairly permenant. I think summer 2018 will go down as an extreme example of a front loaded summer. 

Its possible, but i'm not sure what that has to do with the model runs this morning, which generally speaking keep the warm and settled weather out to day 10.

 

[Nick F]

Very little rain, probably zilch for most, early next week at least, hints of thundery showers mid-week onwards pushing N and NE across England and Wales on both 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF, as an upper trough lifts northeast, though the way the models have been depicting the blocking high squeezing the life out of any attempts to breakdown from the SW, confidence in this for me is not too high for now, given models have back-tracked on thundery showers for the south Sunday into Monday to limit to the far SW of England now.

Medium range - 00z GFS seems keen to strengthen the upper westerlies towards the UK, bringing a more mobile flow off the Atlantic, however, ECMWF and GEFS mean suggest ridging may rebuild from the SW. So perhaps a heatwave reload in early July?

 

[Frosty.]

Another fantastic GEFS 00z mean with plenty of high pressure / strong azores ridging and for southern uk especially..high temperatures..well into July it's currently looking very good  

[Summer Sun]

Total rainfall out to D10 on 00z ECM struggles to exceed 1mm for the vast majority

 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is absolutely tremendous for warm lovers- if anything the azores anticyclone is building again towards day 10 with very little rain expected and even beyond day 10 little sign of anything Atlantic driven near the UK.

Of course things can change in the 6-10 day period so nothing cast in stone but as it stands its looking really good.

[shaky]

Quick update before my early morning run!!ukmo and gfs and arpege all the same this morning!!biscay low further soouth again and heatwave continues well into next week!!over to you mr ecm..outstanding ecm this morning!!mean even better!!!