Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 14/04/18


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Notable change between 12z and 18z for next Saturday. 12z had most just about scraping 20C. Low-mid 20s for majority on 18z, but still a cooler North Sea coast!

55E01BD2-5C87-49EC-860E-B659FE5E6D3F.jpeg

8C8ACD96-B879-489D-80FB-84DDE537789A.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Flaming start to Wimbledon. Seems to be falling in line with the other models. 5B2CB7B4-36E8-422A-AA96-778389351783.thumb.jpeg.ec4961ccca1af0dcc3f414be3be2c8be.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Massive improvement from ukmo this morniing!!high further south and also pull in a continental flow at the weekend!!850s of +12 throughout!!gfs continues from tthe 18z last night and england and wales stay hot and sunny all the way through the weekend!!even starts to waft in more hot and humid air from the continent!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Latter stages of overnight Ecm yet again giving a thumbs down to any hopes of a continuation of the heatwave beyond next weekend. This transition while slow in nature certainly seems to be gaining momentum. So something distinctly far more average compared to this week seems very likely now as we enter July.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Interesting that the met updatebhos morning now says that eastern areas turning cloudier by the end of the week with that easterly. Wonder how far that will encroach inland, from a selfish point of view hopefully not here!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl
  • Weather Preferences: any storms
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl

 

 

1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

 

 

arpegeuk-41-88-0.png?25-06

The all time irish temperature record of 33.3c must be in danger of getting beat if those charts become reality .

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM run is nothing like the 12z from yesterday. It seems to completely overblown the low pressure in Biscay.

Yup although more hot and humid for the weekend it still more thundery and wet!!see where this sits in the ensembles!!ukmo is fantastic though!!hope its right!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Fantastic Ecm 00z, we have  dry very warm / hot sunny weather this week under high pressure with temps in the mid / high 20's c and some areas hitting 30/31c  followed by increasingly humid continental and still very warm conditions with sunshine and thunderstorms next week with temps still potentially in the mid 20's c range.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I think the models are really struggling with the evolution from Friday onwards. Lots of inter run variance between model runs, and of course between different models!

i do think though that ECM is making too much of the LP system. It could well end up staying further west and advecting sone hotter air.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Interesting that the met updatebhos morning now says that eastern areas turning cloudier by the end of the week with that easterly. Wonder how far that will encroach inland, from a selfish point of view hopefully not here!

Yes - nervous times for many of us as that dreaded murk can spread very far inland. Could potentially ruin what could have been an otherwise excellent week. I feel sorry for east coast dwellers in particular who have had to put up with this nonsense for what seems like forever now - and even when it's been sunny it hasn't been warm.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec idea of the upper trough having a say in the 8/10 day period well supported in the clusters yesterday. I wondered if it was a one off suite but seems not. Question would be how high heights manage to stay across the uk. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

One of the strange things about weather forecasting is how sometimes that weather can be quite easy to predict up to 10 days out, yet another period of weather can be picked up as problematic at long range and remain unresolved until very near the time. We're seeing that very phenomenon right now - whilst the current period 23rd-29th June seems nailed on as much as 7 days ago, the forecast for 1st July has changed more times than the colour of a tree-frog. Last night, the models did not take the upper low anywhere near the UK by this time:

ECM1-168.GIF?12  gfs-0-168.png?12

yet this morning it's much further north on all the main op runs:

gfs-0-144.png  UW144-21.GIF?25-07  ECM1-144.GIF?25-12

The clusters last night also showed important differences for how heights were forecast around the UK at this date:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062412_168.

cluster 1 having more westerly influence than any of this morning's op runs, cluster 2 not far off the UKMO and cluster 3 showing some similarity in to the ECM albeit the upper low still much further south)

These small differences turned into large differences by the 3rd July - much more presence from the Atlantic trough - though still to the west, meaning the chance of an extended period of southerlies remains:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062412_216.

Best guess beyond Saturday - Still hot where the sun gets through but much more mixed in weather type.

 

More runs needed - again!!

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

So the continental influences continue I suspect this will continue for sometime with atmosphere changing towards a more el Nino setup along with a relatively low solar activity.

High pressure has dominated being strong in nature with minor blips in between.

Dry hot summer was always very much at the forefront of my mind.

Very happy with the models ecm gem and ukmo all very nice classic 80s style summer home grown heat as well.

Excellent outlook 

Today I see continual higher heights over uk with a switch to a more easterly flow with low pressure to our sw would only help in becoming unsettled.

But not fresh or cool.

More likely unsettled warm humid with thunderstorms.

I would continue to be on the fence beyond day 10.

I believe the sluggish Atlantic dominance likely to continue for sometime yet.

So I believe there's absolutely nothing wrong with short midterm outlook.

Very nice and a very hot day today for fair few across uk.

Even in the north through this week is on course for some summery weather.

30c  to 31c likely today in the hot spots temps gradually increasing through the week.

maybe bit cooler by weekend but still very warm.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
17 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

So the continental influences continue I suspect this will continue for sometime with atmosphere changing towards a more el Nino setup along with a relatively low solar activity.

Two influences which are probably too small to have an impact on the UK directly. 1987 had an El Nino setup with low solar activity as did 2004 and 2009 but neither 3 will be remembered as hot and dry in years to come. Maybe the Atlantic SST pattern could be explaining things somewhat as cold SSTs to the south of Greenland usually lead to warmer European Summers.

High pressure set to dominate this week but the heat is set to trigger off some instability in the Bay of Biscay next weekend. This may well lead to a thundery breakdown but its still early days.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Lots of headaches around that Iberian trough that will need sorting out - could  lead to unsettled weather, not so much, or nothing at all. Big issues to resolve, no clear consensus yet. Let's see those ECM clusters and what they think of the weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Two influences which are probably too small to have an impact on the UK directly. 1987 had an El Nino setup with low solar activity as did 2004 and 2009 but neither 3 will be remembered as hot and dry in years to come. Maybe the Atlantic SST pattern could be explaining things somewhat as cold SSTs to the south of Greenland usually lead to warmer European Summers.

High pressure set to dominate this week but the heat is set to trigger off some instability in the Bay of Biscay next weekend. This may well lead to a thundery breakdown but its still early days.

The SST pattern is indicative of a strong +NAO tripole (itself largely the result of a strong +NAO period - they reinforce each other). So long as we see a +AO (May was among the most positive on record) then it's likely that we could see the pattern continue to rebuild. If the AO flips then the enhanced sub-tropical high resulting from a +NAO will probably find itself negatively tilted and simply serve to fire the conveyor belt at us. 

So it's swings and roundabouts. If the AO plays ball we get the best scenario possible. If it does not then rather than slow moving southerly lows that we can avoid, we get a raging Atlantic for the time of year since the enhanced sub-tropical heights will simply enhance the westerlies at the mid-lattitudes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS0z held out longer (and it looks like the 6z is too) however the Euro this morning essentially cuts off the hot spell by Sunday with thunder and more sustained rain taking over before the Atlantic finally moves through. Aggressive is the word. 

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Beautifull gfs 06z so far!biscay low further south compared to ecm and the hot and humid weather continues into the weekend!just brilliant!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...