Model output discussion 14/04/18

[BlueHedgehog074]

Sorry to spoil da party, but just a reminder that this is the Model Output Thread and any toy-throwing-out-of-the-pram posts are more suitable for this thread: 

Paul has had to vaporise a few posts on here tonight. Don’t let yours be next.

Edited June 23, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[DIS1970]

Don't know what people are " moaning " about, because 24 - 27C is perfectly fine to me, especially this time of year, and in direct sunlight, which to some would more than likely be too hot.

[The Eagle]

 

Last 9 months in Ireland - hurricane, blizzards, heatwave 

Edited June 24, 2018 by The Eagle

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational, most if not all of the week ahead looks bone dry, very warm with plenty of sunshine and light winds with temperatures into the mid / high 20's celsius, especially further south. This is followed by occasional cooler more unsettled interludes which mainly affect northern uk and the general theme thereafter is for the azores high to continue ridging in across southern uk bringing largely fine and warm weather but further n / nw more changeable and cooler than the week ahead. The Gefs 00z mean longer term indicates the azores high / ridge will continue to be influental, for southern uk at least.

Edited June 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Ecm is brilliant this morning out to 144, really keeping a strong ridge over the UK, and warmer for the whole country.

UKMO makes a bit more of the low to the north which squeezes things a bit and starts to introduce cooler air in to the NW.

[Man With Beard]

Flip flop flip flop!! ECM op this morning going for a settled and hot weekend for all parts. In the last week its changed its mind everyday about these two days! Hopefully this is the final change! 

And the threat of the plume still lingers at T168

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is superb...long live the glorious very warm / hot spell if it verifies!

Edited June 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[Guest]

ECM is a good run and should things remain largely sunny and warm until I go back to work on July 2nd. 

All the models still with small differences in them however most places away from the east coast should see mid to high twenties for most of the next week. 

Wouldnt be surprised to see the highest temps recorded in places like Bournemouth, Yeovil, Taunton or Exeter as that easterly drift sets in mid week.

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM is a good run

It's much better than a good run, it's magnificent compared to the Gfs / Gem..stunning Ecm which has considerable power to add beyond T+240 hours..hope it's right!

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's much better than a good run, it's magnificent compared to the Gfs / Gem..stunning Ecm which has considerable power to add beyond T+240 hours..hope it's right!

It’s certainly a very settled and dry run although those on the east coast may be less happy. Nothing especially hot by the looks of things (30c plus).

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational, most if not all of the week ahead looks bone dry, very warm with plenty of sunshine and light winds with temperatures into the mid / high 20's celsius, especially further south. This is followed by occasional cooler more unsettled interludes which mainly affect northern uk and the general theme thereafter is for the azores high to continue ridging in across southern uk bringing largely fine and warm weather but further n / nw more changeable and cooler than the week ahead. The Gefs 00z mean longer term indicates the azores high / ridge will continue to be influental, for southern uk at least.

No real point in posting charts, as they'll be outdated withing minutes anyway, but it does look there'll be a distinct wodge of very hot air lingering over North Africa and Southern Europe in the coming days and weeks...The question is, therefore, will it (with perhaps a wee bit of help from some Atlantic/Iberian troughing) get 'plumalated' and waft its way up here?

And plumes means points means prizes!

[mushymanrob]

noaa charts suggest a slackening of the high pressure into july. a gentle westerly upper flow with pressure still on the  +ive side of neutral.

looks to me like the hot spell will fizzle out (as opposed to a thundery breakdown) as a westerly draft takes over, lowering temps, (but still warm) with some more unsettled conditions. the usual caveat - wetter windier cooler in the northwest with the southeast hanging on to the hottest, driest conditions.

the warm dry theme is set to continue, with another lengthier high pressure hot spell starting in about early/mid july, if the long wave pattern repeats.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Edited June 24, 2018 by mushymanrob
missed chart

[shaky]

Hot ecm this morning for the whole of the coming week!!!ukmo looked good up to 120 hours until it hit 144 hours and managed to somehow amplify things over greenland slightly and bring that low closeer to the northwest!!gota say didnt see that coming judging frrom the 120 hour chart and i actually thought pressuere would be far higher!!gfs is somewhere in the middle!!

[Dominic Carey]

Fantastic output again this morning very pleased, long may it continue .

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the Gfs 6z operational so far..it's got stronger ridging for longer than the 00z meaning that fine and warm weather is more widespread and longer lasting well into week 2..the week ahead, especially mon, tues, wed, thurs look very warm / locally hot and generally sunny with temperatures into the mid to high 20's celsius, I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere hits 30c during the coming week.

Edited June 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[bradymk]

Ridge lasting almost the whole run on the 6z albeit a few minor intrusions. Low accumulated precip for the whole run. Taking into account too that the precip goes low res after a certain timeframe. 

Generally between 2-10mm for most of the south for the whole 16 days. 

Arpege still going for 30c/31c with SW England the hotspot early this coming week. 

[Man With Beard]

The struggle to sort out the weekend is very evident when comparing last night's EC clusters with this morning's :

Last night none of the clusters were that confident on it staying settled: cluster 1 looked like becoming westerly before long, cluster 2 the high slipping NE and cluster 3 already broken down. 

But this morning, we have three out five clusters looking solid for a settled weekend (1, 2 and 4, representing 70% of members ), with last night's options reduced to small outliers. 

The knock on effect into next week is as one would expect - last night's clusters had quite a number of Atlantic dominant options between D9 and D15, but this morning we're back to very few. 

It may be that last night was a blip, but with such large run-to-run differences, I reluctantly must turn to the phrase "more runs needed" 

[Frosty.]

To sum up the Gfs 6z, in a nutshell, high res looks generally fantastic with high pressure / strong ridging domination bringing predominantly very warm fine weather with plenty of sunshine, the largely fine and warm conditions persist well into week 2 thanks to strong ridging but a few showers break out too..there is a changeable less warm blip but increasing warmth and high pressure building in strongly again later in the run.

Edited June 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is absolutely superb, it's dominated by high pressure / strong azores ridging throughout and temperatures vary between warm / very warm / hot...the warmest sustained temps further south..

[Mike Poole]

The warm spell has now started.  So I wonder if we'll see the uncertainty reduce as the models get a grip on what's going on?  I'd be looking for the 12s to firm some things up.  First out, ICON. Awesome:

850s at the end of the run:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS again suggesting Thursday will be last day of hot spell, a quite horrid chart again for Friday, sea mist and lots of it, but surely GFS wrong, other models keep it warm/hot

[Mike Poole]

So to the GFS, here to T192:

850s at T192, this isn't a hot run, but it's a dry sunny run.

its difficult to say much about the UKMO because it doesn't go far enough, here's the chart at T144 though:

i'll post the GEM in a bit!

[Mike Poole]

So to the GEM, eventually one for the storm enthusiasts, this one, but a lot of hot sunny weather before that:

[Man With Beard]

Yes GEM is interesting, it keeps the ridge throughout and then stalls the next Atlantic low to the west (seen some ensembles do this). Hot from start to finish as a result. GFS introduces cooler air by the weekend but still mid 20s. UKMO in the middle. 

Either way this week, it looks like 6 excellent days to come, followed maybe by 1 dodgier day to finish

[Djdazzle]

GEM looking very good for prolonging heat. Let’s see if ECM agrees because GFS looks too keen to sweep away the heat. The 144 mean, however, is better than the op.