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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Anyone expecting the models to show an endless heatwave every run is setting themselves up for disappointment but the week ahead looks amazing and longer term both the GEFS / ECM 00z mean indicate plenty more from the azores high / ridge going further into July.:smile: 

Very true Frosty - the same rules apply in summer as they do in winter - if you base all of your hopes on a couple of OP runs at day 5/6, then you can often end up disappointed. Things very often change even at this range....you only have to look at todays 00z GFS ensemble:

gefsens850london0.png

By day 5 you have 850s ranging from anything around 9c right up to 15/16c....that's a massive difference, and will obviously be the difference between high 20s and low 30s. Just sit tight and wait to see some really firm ensemble agreement.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Very true Frosty - the same rules apply in summer as they do in winter - if you base all of your hopes on a couple of OP runs at day 5/6, then you can often end up disappointed. Things very often change even at this range....you only have to look at todays 00z GFS ensemble:

gefsens850london0.png

By day 5 you have 850s ranging from anything around 9c right up to 15/16c....that's a massive difference, and will obviously be the difference between high 20s and low 30s. Just sit tight and wait to see some really firm ensemble agreement.

Yes I couldn't believe what I was reading on here earlier..it was as if next week's heat had been cancelled..happy to report it hasn't been and the mean is looking really good.:smile: 

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

Right. Enough model watching and contributing towards this forum. I am signing off now for the rest of this week to enjoy the sun/warm weather.

I hope you all enjoy the weather as well.

:)

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

No model is going to show endless days of persistent heatwave action run after run after run, this is the UK not the canaries. The models will always backtrack then leap forwards then backtrack again as they struggle with positioning of the high. Even July 2003 and 2006 the models were struggling on the timing of the heat, uppers etc etc.  Be grateful for this Sypnotic pattern and be thankful we're not under 2012 patterns

Edited by 38.5*C
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Well again complete contrast to yesterday’s model beyond Wednesday. Gfs 06z going for a more hurriedly breakdown by Friday which is really a notable difference to yesterday and while there maybe cross model agreement on a different evolution for the later end of the week I wouldn’t mind betting this get delayed somewhat. That said multiple days in the 30’s look of the cards this morning so defo change from outpu 12/18hrs ago which cannot be ignored.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well again complete contrast to yesterday’s model beyond Wednesday. Gfs 06z going for a more hurriedly breakdown by Friday which is really a notable difference to yesterday and while there maybe cross model agreement on a different evolution for the later end of the week I wouldn’t mind betting this get delayed somewhat. That said multiple days in the 30’s look of the cards this morning so defo change from outpu 12/18hrs ago which cannot be ignored.

I don't see any breakdown by Friday. By Sunday you're seeing some activity in the far south but it's so far off in deep FI I wouldn't worry about it too much and could well be gone again by 12oz run.

Otherwise slightly better 06oz with a slight reduction temperatures which again could go back up on the 12 oz. At the moment the prospects for the coming week are looking pretty good. Dry very warm possibly hot and being dry the garden shouldn't grow much :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Those all important ECM cluster ensembles....fair to say there's a lot of chaos.

Even at 144 hours there's differences. All high pressure based, but with subtle differences that will affect the temperatures. Cluster 1 closely matches the OP today, and that is the slightly more favoured option - but not massively so at 29%. The other clusters look better to be honest.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062300_144.

By 192 hours it's a complete mess, and when you tend to see a lot of equally divided clusters it doesn't really fill you with much confidence:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062300_192.

By day 10 there are unsettled options starting to appear:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062300_240.

Not worth looking beyond here - the clusters are all over the place. Best to get the here and now sorted before worrying about early July.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

That 6z run is pure garbage - breaks down quickly, and no real heat there either. I'd be surprised if it fits well in the ensembles, looks a bit on the cool side to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That 6z run is pure garbage - breaks down quickly, and no real heat there either. I'd be surprised if it fits well in the ensembles, looks a bit on the cool side to me.

Sorry you must be looking at the archives for 2007 or confusing high pressure for low pressure. The coming week may give something for people who like low 20's and some high 20's for those who love heat. North west of the country may see some rain and a risk of some rain for the far south this weekend which if Thundery will make another group of people happy.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The latest anomaly charts and my comments overnight Friday into Saturday

Friday-Saturday 22-23 June

 

Noaa very ridged pattern and with upper low beneath; possible thundery outbreaks?

Ec-gfs on sat show ec has dropped its large ridge/+ve heights and now shows a flat w’ly with only small height rises across uk and the cut off upper low still there; gfs has ridging but not like noaa.

So overall 3 rather different patterns shown so best keep a watching brief for now!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Very true Frosty - the same rules apply in summer as they do in winter - if you base all of your hopes on a couple of OP runs at day 5/6, then you can often end up disappointed. Things very often change even at this range....you only have to look at todays 00z GFS ensemble:

gefsens850london0.png

By day 5 you have 850s ranging from anything around 9c right up to 15/16c....that's a massive difference, and will obviously be the difference between high 20s and low 30s. Just sit tight and wait to see some really firm ensemble agreement.

On the other hand, if someone so wishes, they could say out to day 5/6 pretty solid agreement?

It has been said before that the obsession with what 'might' happen 10 days ahead and ignoring what looks pretty likely in the first 5 days is similar to many posts in here during the winter.

I'll drop the rest in the moans thread!

My take on things post 6 days is in the post re the anomaly charts. If they start showing variations with one another and their own previous pattern then it is best to wait for a day or two to see what transpires.

Edited by johnholmes
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Gfs 06z is garbage at times, while maybe an outlier (or not) it has maxes next Saturday almost 20c lower in the southwest than last night with parts of Dorset/Wilts/Somerset stuck under a disturbance and maxes of an incredibly low 12c.....incredible flip......

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean looks great, especially for southern uk longer term..and next week looks amazing..not a piece of garbage to be seen!:D:whistling:

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8 minutes ago, Paul said:

Yep, incredible flip - I mean a model showing some showers at 168 hours or so, which means temperatures are lower in a few counties is exceptional, usually they're all identical at that range with this sort of stuff, surely? What next, another 'incredible flip' on the next run when those showers are gone, or have moved elsewhere?

I do wonder about the motives of this sort of post, I guess I've given you the reaction you're maybe after though, oops. 

Come on, you know that a few showers don’t cause the models to have temps drop almost 20c. I’m just saying what I see, does this mornings gfs not show an enormous change in the forecast for parts of the south next weekend. Until then warm and sunny....

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

gefsens850london0.png

As expected from that 6z run, not entirely keeping with the ensemble suite...by day 7 its in the lowest cluster, by day 10 its 19th out of 20 members in terms of 850 temps...by day 14 you have a stonking wet outlier ppn spike too. Best chuck it in the bin and wait for the 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Come on, you know that a few showers don’t cause the models to have temps drop almost 20c. I’m just saying what I see, does this mornings gfs not show an enormous change in the forecast for parts of the south next weekend. Until then warm and sunny....

Well for starters, where is this 20c swing in the SW next Saturday?

This is the 06z, granted a bit cooler down the east coast (that change in wind direction caused by a relatively small shift in the high pressure's position), but the SW has moved a few degrees, and this over a week away.

00z 00z.png

06z 06z.png

I assume you're looking at Sunday rather than Saturday (just the odd 200 hours ahead), and yeah, the one very cool spot is SW/CS England and it is all about the position of the showers and cloudcover being modelled. Other parts, still well into the twenties..

showersun.png

But again, we're miles ahead, talking about a single model run and looking at details such as showers / differences in temperatures which are bound to change run to run. Nothing wrong in discussing it, but this ott, at times provocative and overly dramatic language to describe these changes is grating, tiring and off putting when it comes to those wanting to get involved in these discussions. So, if drama is your thing, please use the banter thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

A quick look though the GEFS 6z ensembles in the T192 to T240 range and I'm happy not much has changed, some with high pressure in charge, some with thundery breakdowns, some with reloading ridge from the Azores.  What's not to like?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

A quick look though the GEFS 6z ensembles in the T192 to T240 range and I'm happy not much has changed, some with high pressure in charge, some with thundery breakdowns, some with reloading ridge from the Azores.  What's not to like?

Precisely the point i made about the 6z mean in my post above, some won't be satisfied unless the models are showing endless heatwave conditions with temps in the mid 30's celsius!.:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Next weekend isn't looking too good for us easterners as low cloud probably becomes an issue again, but too far away to be certain of anything.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Ay, certainly more of an E'ly breeze being modelled, potentially dull and drizzly early on at least for this location

gfs-0-150.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Precisely the point i made about the 6z mean in my post above, some won't be satisfied unless the models are showing endless heatwave conditions with temps in the mid 30's celsius!.:D

Yes. If you take the GEFS 6z suite as representative of the amount of uncertainty that's sloshing about in the 10 day charts, then we should not be surprised by either yesterday's 12z op runs or this mornings op runs.  

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Thanks @mb018538 for covering those clusters earlier! The 30th/1st/2nd, then, remain a point of divergence between a continuation of settled conditions and a temporary break (though hardly unsettled). This period has been well flagged for several days. 

The questions remaining are will the settled conditions end, and will the heat be over after next weekend? On the first question, all week the clusters have leant towards another settled week next week regardless of what happens at the weekend, and this morning was no different with positive anomalies generally in a good place for settled weather by D12 (except cluster 3 in the NW) :

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062300_300.

The second question on heat continuing is less easy. The ensemble mean for upper temps definitely peaks between D5 and D9, though still well above average until D15. I suspect that masks a variance between runs which introduce a westerly element (less hot) and those where pressure was strong enough to stave off the mini-breakdown, and therefore retaining heat for the UK. 

So some uncertainties over whether there'll be a break in the weather next weekend and if it will stay hot beyond that (not a done deal either way), but reasonable confidence in a decent week to begin July. 

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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