Model output discussion 14/04/18

[mb018538]

Ensembles are a complete mess this morning, it looks like there is a slight trend to develop a bit of an easterly component, as well as keep the very warmest 850s away compared with yesterday’s runs - though obviously still very warm, with the 15c uppers still making a visit.

00z gfs is a cold outlier and doesn’t sit well in the ensembles so maybe best ignored. Everything still looks great, though a notch down on the very hot runs of the 00/12z runs yesterday.

[mb018538]

ECM also following suit - while its perfectly acceptable, it’s just not baking hot like yesterday. Warm to hot still very much on the cards, so nothing to get in a fluster about.

[Djdazzle]

Huge downgrade from last night in terms of heat. ECM in particular from potential mid 30s to high 20s at best.

[sausage]

yep a huge disapointmebt this morning. egg on face for me. south east hot rest average. not so exciting afterall.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Huge downgrade from last night in terms of heat. ECM in particular from potential mid 30s to high 20s at best.

Downgrade yes, but not entirely unexpected - still wasn’t universal agreement on that very hot set up. Anyway, there are still very hot gfs ensemble members, and I’ll guess ecm members too, so it could change again by the 12z

[JoeShmoe]

Not sure how folk can complain about days on end of 25-30c and blue skies but hey ho !

Personally i'll be in the beer garden watching the world cup

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, sausage said:

yep a huge disapointmebt this morning. egg on face for me. south east hot rest average. not so exciting afterall.

25-27C is average then is it? Could do without the ridiculous OTT reactions to every model run, especially when your information is incorrect and misleading.

It's a little down on yesterday's blowtorch runs but temperatures will still be well above average and potentially hot especially further south. It's nowhere near a 'huge downgrade'.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Reverse Zonality

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Huge downgrade from last night in terms of heat. ECM in particular from potential mid 30s to high 20s at best.

Overblowing a low to the north, which hasn’t even developed yet off the US Eastern coast. Ignore it. I shall imagine the output may be different in 12 hours time. 

[JBMWeatherForever]

Still very likely to see low thirty's later next week in some Southern and central parts !  Also no breakdown in the foreseeable !

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

25-27C is average then is it? Could do without the ridiculous OTT reactions to every model run, especially when your information is incorrect and misleading.

It's a little down on yesterday's blowtorch runs but temperatures will still be well above average and potentially hot especially further south. It's nowhere near a 'huge downgrade'.

A drop of 5-7C at the 120 / 144 is a huge downgrade in terms of temps. For the SE anyway.

[Polar Maritime]

The Models this morning continue to show a very warm and sometimes hot week ahead, With temps in the high 20's & turning hotter as the week progresses, With temps touching 30c by Friday as shown by the Net-Wx MR model.

Time to get the Summer hat out..

 

[mb018538]

Don't worry folks, NAVGEM is still going mid thirties for the latter half of the week, and we're close to 100f again by Thursday!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2018062300/navgemfr-8-138.png?23-08
 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

15 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The Models this morning continue to show a very warm and sometimes hot week ahead, With temps in the high 20's & turning hotter as the week progresses, With temps touching 30c by Friday as shown by the Net-Wx MR model.

Time to get the Summer hat out..

 

Imagine if the record went right on Merseyside!! 38c showing there! 

[bluearmy]

Only on here could output like we currently have elicit disappointment ! 

Five clusters in the 10/14 day on yesterday’s 12z eps so a little more uncertainty but no sign that the generally warm and settled outlook is under much threat. The Wimbledon grass might be looking pretty burned by the finals weekend .....

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Imagine if the record went right on Merseyside!! 38c showing there! 

Is that ground rather than 2m temps ????

[Paul]

55 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

A drop of 5-7C at the 120 / 144 is a huge downgrade in terms of temps. For the SE anyway.

Just to help you out here in terms of model watching - in case this is fairly new to you, or anyone else. A change at 120/144 to the details, such as temperature etc, is not a 'huge downgrade'. It's something which is going to happen run to run, a tiny change in the positioning of the high pressure can change the wind direction and therefore change the temperatures. Following the models at that range in that amount of detail is fair enough in some respects, if you enjoy watching what they're doing, but reacting to them with this upgrade/downgrade stuff constantly is over the top. My advice would be to stop, but if people want to do that, then the model banter thread is the best place for it.

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that ground rather than 2m temps ????

Yep

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Imagine if the record went right on Merseyside!! 38c showing there! 

That's the ground temp on the left

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That's the ground temp on the left

Aha, my bad, thought it seemed too good to be true! 

[Man With Beard]

Thanks @Paul, we must remember this is the UK, you are not going to get the same model run day after day from 10 days out! No issues with the forecast today. Still mainly hot and sunny till D8 at least. Yesterday's ops were nearer the top end of the spread for heat, this morning's perhaps on the lower side after D7. D10-D15 still veering towards warm/settled, though of course a northerly/easterly element could get in during a high pressure dominant situation. 

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Aha, my bad, thought it seemed too good to be true! 

NAVGEM would probably forecast it as 2m temps!

It'll be interesting to see the ECM clusters this morning and where they go. I'll leave @Man With Beard to fulfil the honours at 1130ish when they appear!

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Aha, my bad, thought it seemed too good to be true! 

That level of temp in this country is really not ‘ good ‘ ...............

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

NAVGEM would probably forecast it as 2m temps!

It'll be interesting to see the ECM clusters this morning and where they go. I'll leave @Man With Beard to fulfil the honours at 1130ish when they appear!

I'm out this morning - feel free to post today or any time!!

[Mike Poole]

GEM the pick of the main models this morning, here at T240:

The others look OK, ECM maybe a tad disappointing, but only to be expected run to run variance at the range we are typically discussing.

[Frosty.]

Anyone expecting the models to show an endless heatwave every run is setting themselves up for disappointment but the week ahead looks amazing and longer term both the GEFS / ECM 00z mean indicate plenty more from the azores high / ridge going further into July.