Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 14/04/18


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

If we are watching records next week, Ireland may be the place. ECM op has it getting to 31C there later next week. All time record just 33C.

As for the UK mainland, the uppers vary day to day after D4 but the temperatures seem unaffected - they just keep going up day by day. Next weekend particularly hot, well into the 30s in the SE I'd guess. 

The level of heat next week will only be tempered if a stronger flow of the N Sea develops, unlikely but still possible. 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

If we are watching records next week, Ireland may be the place. ECM op has it getting to 31C there later next week. All time record just 33C.

As for the UK mainland, the uppers vary day to day after D4 but the temperatures seem unaffected - they just keep going up day by day. Next weekend particularly hot, well into the 30s in the SE I'd guess. 

The level of heat next week will only be tempered if a stronger flow of the N Sea develops, unlikely but still possible. 

Yep about time it was smashed. It has happened multiple times to the UK since 1900 (1911, 1990, 2003), so why not Ireland's turn now.

 

29x68f5.jpg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Arpege for the start of next week

arpegeuk-41-74-0.png?22-18   arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?22-18

High twenties widespread on both Monday and Tuesday, it does show low thirties towards the Bristol area but from last year it tends to have issues around that part of the UK. The highest temperatures could be anywhere inland across England and Wales with Ireland not far behind, warmest parts of Scotland look to be around Aberdeen and Inverness potentially though gradually NW Scotland should join the party.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

I think this weekends temperatures will be very telling to determine how hot it may get next week. You would presume if temperatures were indeed a few degrees higher than the forecasts, you probably be able to have the idea it maybe slightly hotter than forecast.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 12z is absolutely amazing later next week onwards with widespread low 30's celsius..high 80's to low 90's F across a large swathe of the uk including ireland..real heatwave conditions...a scorcher

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
17 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Arpege for the start of next week

arpegeuk-41-74-0.png?22-18   arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?22-18

High twenties widespread on both Monday and Tuesday, it does show low thirties towards the Bristol area but from last year it tends to have issues around that part of the UK. The highest temperatures could be anywhere inland across England and Wales with Ireland not far behind, warmest parts of Scotland look to be around Aberdeen and Inverness potentially though gradually NW Scotland should join the party.

best 2 charts of next week, full sun 26 degrees, who'd say no to that!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

NAVGEM strikes again. 36c in Ireland, 20c in Morocco. Sure 

 

navgem-8-174.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

All good on the ECM 12z ensembles, here's the position at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.dc06e103c2735e7baf680ce6d0dc9855.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.544571b7913bacdaa43e396f2d66e769.jpg

The most telling chart for me was a mean chart at T192 with +14C uppers into the UK:

image.thumb.jpg.5dda036a97d3781d2c05adc347691a17.jpg

This could be a really significant weather event that we're on the cusp of.  Very interesting to see what happens! 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Excellent GEFS 12z mean, the jet stays well to the north with the azores high looking very strong well into early july..hopefully the height of this summer will reach dizzy heights in terms of very summery weather!:smile:

Fantastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean too as Mike posted above.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Accumulated precipitation out to July 1st not a drop for the vast majority

 

87d0c51a-d6b4-44c7-9ce2-ffbc01f15a8d.png

Yes, how hot it's going to get has been the theme of most of the discussion on this thread, but how dry is exceptional.  Here's the GFS cumulative precipitation to t240 from the 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.32bd840e22798046b4ad78beb720cd6e.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

What a lovely spell this is going to be. I’m glad it hasn’t downgraded again and seems to only look more settled and warm. The prospect of no rain for 10+ days is blissful. But saying that, it’s been very dry for some time now. This spring and into summer has been the best for some time. 

I can only see it getting better and think we’re in for some real heat and sun this summer. 

Smacks of 2006/2013 to me. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

sounds great im back home briefly mid July..was looking forward to some wind and rain

Maybe come back in November. You'll get it in abundance!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

It’s a real leap, but possible 1976 repeat? 

Looking at the models there’s no reason why the warmth and HP can’t keep rebuilding. I’ve been thinking that looking at the models for some time now, all the ingredients are there. 

July 2006 and July 2013 are the best months I can remember, but the rest of those summers were hit and miss. 

Possibility that we can have a really settled full summer? 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Tonight's FIM9 keeping the enthusiasm for heat going today.  A result of the high pressure train from the Azores,. 

image.thumb.jpg.ca881340e4162dafa4233cc1121be5ee.jpg

A GIF would probably illustrate this better:

tempresult_nbq2.gif

2m temperatures at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.f350733645ba1cbe7d32f42a51c3ace0.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

Toasty GFS 18z , not as hot as ECM 12z but hardly cool by any means.

 

gfs-0-6618z.png

18_63_ukthickness850.png

gfs-0-96.png

18_87_ukthickness850.png

gfs-0-120 (2).png

18_111_ukthickness850.png

gfs-0-144 (3).png

18_135_ukthickness850.png

gfs-0-168 (5).png

18_159_ukthickness850.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hands up who thinks the pub run is wrong here:

image.thumb.jpg.7b85df9a868cc0d31afc32625f0d1aed.jpg

goes against all other model guidance, and the Met Office long ranger, and all common sense.  Bin it.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hands up who thinks the pub run is wrong here:

image.thumb.jpg.7b85df9a868cc0d31afc32625f0d1aed.jpg

goes against all other model guidance, and the Met Office long ranger, and all common sense.  Bin it.

Come on Mike, that chart is 16 days away! The chance of ANY run being right at that range is remote.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Come on Mike, that chart is 16 days away! The chance of ANY run being right at that range is remote.

Yes, which is why I said bin it!  But you have to admit it's not a chart we've seen the likes of recently so I thought it was worth a comment, even if dismissively.

Meanwhile, the GFS 18z ensemble mean is still showing strong ridging from the Azores, here at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c1586806a29e24faa2870f0c97c20444.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, which is why I said bin it!  But you have to admit it's not a chart we've seen the likes of recently so I thought it was worth a comment, even if dismissively.

Get what you’re saying. Wonder if it’s in line with the ensembles?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hands up who thinks the pub run is wrong here:

image.thumb.jpg.7b85df9a868cc0d31afc32625f0d1aed.jpg

goes against all other model guidance, and the Met Office long ranger, and all common sense.  Bin it.

Summers over!

(Sound of toys bouncing on ground from a now empty pram)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

Rip see you again Summer soon maybe next year :(. 

But seriously, GFS 18z.... Pub Run.... enough said. It's like that GFS 12z run from the day before. 

Trump-Pram-Website_800.png

Edited by BruenSryan
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Rip see you again Summer soon maybe next year :(. 

But seriously, GFS 18z.... Pub Run.... enough said. It's like that GFS 12z run from the day before. 

Trump-Pram-Website_800.png

Remember the ‘pub’ run is actually not the really the pub and the second most accurate run of the 4 from GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Remember the ‘pub’ run is actually not the really the pub and the second most accurate run of the 4 from GFS.

What? There's two runs I take less serious and they're the 06z and 18z based on their verification. Also, the chart given is at +384 hrs so even if it was the 0z or 12z, I wouldn't take it serious at all. Just look at it for long range trends or fun.

P.S. Don't quote pics please.

Edited by BruenSryan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...