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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Ground temps next Friday on GFS 12z, and to think they could be under-estimated by 2 or 3C yet!

12_171_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.c6b45d9c72a523090be52b0191077a59.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
12 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Hints in the models of a return to more of an Atlantic coming 2nd week of July. Hopefully just a blip. We'll see. 

sounds great im back home briefly mid July..was looking forward to some wind and rain

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

850s in excess of 16c for a large chunk on Wednesday and Thursday....expect 30c to be breached folks...

Quiete easily in my opinion!!with a very dry ground i wouldnt be surprised with a 33 or 34 degrees!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GEM 12z is an insane run so far.  I'll post the animated GIF when it's complete, but here the 850s at T198 - 18C into Cornwall.

image.thumb.jpg.67c5a1a7f3f2f951cb9a21b9a999233e.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
8 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Ground temps next Friday on GFS 12z, and to think they could be under-estimated by 2 or 3C yet!

12_171_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.c6b45d9c72a523090be52b0191077a59.png

Thats even pushing 30c here, Taps Aff

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

If the GFS was to come to fruition, it would be a rather exceptional and possible dangerous/damaging heatwave. Probably the worst since 2003. Temps relentlessly above 30 for many many days for a large proportion of the UK. No sign of any let up for the foreseeable according to this. UKMO is similarly an inferno and GEM, well need I say more!! #scorching

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Yes not a good outlook. If the GFS comes off we have a good chance of a record warm June. Hopefully the ECM will show a cooler more pleasant outlook. The clue will be the actual placement of the high pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yes not a good outlook. If the GFS comes off we have a good chance of a record warm June. Hopefully the ECM will show a cooler more pleasant outlook. The clue will be the actual placement of the high pressure.

Thats a very impartial statement.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well then!

GFS now showing four days in a row hitting 30*C here, with Thursday also in with a good shout so potentially a 5-day run.

As if that wasn't enough, UKMO places the high and 'heat pool' even more effectively for sending those temps soaring. That +144 is up there with the best I've ever seen from the perspective of 'homegrown heat' as opposed to a plume event.

Edited by Singularity
Clarification
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 6 (UKMO/GFS/GEM)

UW144-21.GIF?22-18   gfs-0-144.png?12   gem-0-144.png?12

UW144-7.GIF?22-18   gfs-1-144.png?12   gem-1-144.png?12

So reasonable agreement on high pressure stretching from the Azores through into northern Europe with a cut off cold pool west of Iberia, the GFS still weakest with the ridge stretching north into the UK and this is reflected in the slightly lower 850s. All three are settled and very warm/hot. It looks like longer term the ridge looks to persist with light winds over the UK but with the potential for the heat to build further (especially to our south) and this looks like wafting slowly northwards.

30C looks likely across all three, 32C on the UKMO and to be honest things could escalate from here with heights remaining in situ as well as seeing that low west of Iberia loiter around.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
51 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

It's like the Beast from the East all over again.

Why are you looking out that far? Jeez. We have enough uncertainty out to Friday 29th or Saturday 30th June. Never mind the second week of July! Enjoy it whilst we have it.

Looking at the next 14 days according to GFS 12z I wouldn't be surprised to see people start looking for something much cooler and fresher. Not that I'm complaining though :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I feel like the BBC are being deliberately coy on how warm it’s going to be....they have fleetingly mentioned 30c, but their graphics keep showing 27/28c more widely. Perhaps they don’t want to potentially have (fried) egg on face yet so are holding back on forecasting 30c+. It’s only 4-5 days away now, they can’t keep hiding!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

What's interesting for me this evening - we were hypothesising this morning what would need to happen for a June 1976 repeat to happen - this GFS was going that way until low res... 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What's interesting for me this evening - we were hypothesising this morning what would need to happen for a June 1976 repeat to happen - this GFS was going that way until low res... 

Did 1976 also have a warm/dry May? I was 4 so cant quite remember

Edited by JoeShmoe
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
Just now, JoeShmoe said:

Did 1976 also have a warm/dry May?

May 1976 was warm in the south but relatively cool in the north. Fairly changeable month but sunny in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/n/s/may1976.pdf

11 minutes ago, LoisE said:

Why is this not a good outlook? Heat and fine weather are surely welcome in the height of summer

Whilst I'm a lover of sun and warmth, it's safe to say that it is a terrible outlook for hayfever sufferers, those with other medical problems related to heat, can't stand heat etc. Skin cancer is also likely to increase with the high UV levels and everybody going out.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
50 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yes not a good outlook. If the GFS comes off we have a good chance of a record warm June. Hopefully the ECM will show a cooler more pleasant outlook. The clue will be the actual placement of the high pressure.

Unlikely. We'd still struggle to match 1976 for the CET after corrections. 

Though at 2C+ above average and the warmest in 40+ years it would be exceptional, not least since May felt warmer overall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Talk of a 1976 repeat is a tad premature at the moment....nowhere near certain that the heat will last any longer than a week at the moment, and even then it’s not on the same level. Let’s see where we are in a couple of days time. If we’re still seeing heat locked in through next weekend and into July, then some alarm bells may start to sound...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Talk of a 1976 repeat is a tad premature at the moment....nowhere near certain that the heat will last any longer than a week at the moment, and even then it’s not on the same level. Let’s see where we are in a couple of days time. If we’re still seeing heat locked in through next weekend and into July, then some alarm bells may start to sound...

I should clarify by saying that i don't believe a 1976 repeat is likely (i'm a stats man and a hell of a lot of analogues suggest a front load). Simply that the CET with such an extreme forecast could be in that region for this month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Allesley
  • Location: Allesley
14 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

May 1976 was warm in the south but relatively cool in the north. Fairly changeable month but sunny in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/n/s/may1976.pdf

Whilst I'm a lover of sun and warmth, it's safe to say that it is a terrible outlook for hayfever sufferers, those with other medical problems related to heat, can't stand heat etc. Skin cancer is also likely to increase with the high UV levels and everybody going out.

Fair enough, but we've had a long, hard, cold winter.... I am going to sit in the sun with my factor 50 and have a few glasses of Viognier. YOLO I was in Spain last June and it was considerably hotter. The locals in these Mediterranean lands treat the sun and heat with respect. "Mad dogs and English men...... " 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I should clarify by saying that i don't believe a 1976 repeat is likely (i'm a stats man and a hell of a lot of analogues suggest a front load). Simply that the CET with such an extreme forecast could be in that region for this month. 

Yes (I love your posts by the way) but what the analogues (I've been making hell of a lot of analogues also) don't take into account is the constant stationary wave over Scandinavia since February. I think August will be poor but the models like Glosea5 (CFSv2 differs), SST profiles etc don't suggest this. I couldn't imagine four consecutive very warm and dry months including all three Summer months.

I do not see a 1976 repeat BUT the SST profile in the Atlantic in May 2018 was very similar to that of May 1976 though the Pacific differs in 1976 to 2018. 

It will most certainly not be a record warm June. June 1846 will still stand as the warmest June on record for the CET.

4 minutes ago, LoisE said:

Fair enough, but we've had a long, hard, cold winter.... I am going to sit in the sun with my factor 50 and have a few glasses of Viognier. YOLO I was in Spain last June and it was considerably hotter. The locals in these Mediterranean lands treat the sun and heat with respect. "Mad dogs and English men...... " 

Just stating facts. I'm looking forward to it and I'll be making the most of it. 

Anyway...... back on topic to model output. 

GEM - scorcherio

GFS - scorcherio

UKMO - scorcherio

Is ECM going to be scorcherio or disasterio?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Unlikely. We'd still struggle to match 1976 for the CET after corrections. 

Though at 2C+ above average and the warmest in 40+ years it would be exceptional, not least since May felt warmer overall. 

I think you're right, SB: this June hasn't had the same degree of early June warmth that 1976 had; for it to equal that monthly CET, this year, really would take some doing, IMO...?

July though might be different, however, as the last two weeks of July '76 weren't really all that special. I know this because, in my infinite wisdom (and my being the consummate weather-prophet even then), that particular fortnight somehow coincided with my annual leave!:oops::unknw::wallbash:

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