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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Holy  crap this ecm run is insane!!gets 850 temps close to +20 by 168 hours across england and wales!!high slap bang over the uk!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
6 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

The models this morning are giving the impression of the best last third of June since 1976. Outstanding charts this morning again with 22c-30c across the board easily from sunday. 

Edit: 35c somewhere from ECM on friday

E2BE75A2-7EFD-4257-B5EA-E0D16A626218.jpeg

Yikes, very hot! I'd say 32c/90f would be a certainty there, it'd just be a question of how high can you go!

ECM1-168.GIF?22-12

On the face of it, it's quite unusual, as we often only see 850s that high from a straight southerly/continental flow. Just shows how strong that anticyclone is.

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Well after a little bit of a wobble yesterday the models seem to have reverted to a slightly warmer solution having dropped the idea of a easterly. It really does look staggering next week with potentially some widespread 30s on the card. Yes yes yes!! 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
9 hours ago, rain_shadow said:

and none of these were shown a good week ago... Great timing of this memorable spell.

if you had been following them, youd see that despite a mean upper westerly flow, they had consistently suggested rising pressure.  they might not be the first to pick up on a new pattern, but they are the most accurate. who cares about being 'first'?... give me accuracy anyday and what matters if an accurate pattern is shown at 7 days or 14?

 

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Wow just seem ECM, it’s not often I mention temperatures above 30c as usually even in decent spells it’s rare to get anything much higher than 32c however this mornings run is very warm and could get us close to 35c. Probably won’t happen to that extreme and could possibly be the warmest model run of the entire summer! Great stuff!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

I think what’s remarkable here is the perfect position of the high pressure. In 1995 it was just too far west until a few days in. 1976 though was perfection and we might even match it for 1 week. Can we make it 2 like it did back then? This year has been a year to remember! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Also of note, pressure starting to fall as the Iberian trough (which is actually helping this hot spell even happen in the first place) is starting to lurk with menace by the end of the run:

ECM1-240.GIF?22-12

Not too far from the SW by 240, with all the heat and the air starting to become unstable to the south, we could see a repeat of a few weeks ago with some big storms. That's a long way off at present, and probably not worth discussing a great deal at the moment. One just to keep a keen eye on.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Work has been relentless over the past month or so but now the workload is easing off a bit and in good time too!

Superb charts over the last few days, even yesterday's were still good! The ECM has set the standard this morning though, good grief!

It seems that after 2 days of model output suggesting the heat may relax a little, today's runs are hotter and mid 30s is surely a possibility should the ECM come off. No sign of any epic thunderstorms from the output yet but you wouldn't bet against them appearing further down the line.

Still a lot to be resolved however. Get a slack easterly flow and it may well be a few degrees cooler, with the high over us, almost at peak solar heating and heat being wound up around the Portugal low... there could be some very high maxima on its way.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

18z accumulated rainfall out to 384hrs, almost rainless in a number of places.

GFSOPUK18_384_18.png

The lawns will certainly be looking very brown by the end of next weekend around Manchester- they are already pretty parched.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

I think what’s remarkable here is the perfect position of the high pressure. In 1995 it was just too far west until a few days in. 1976 though was perfection and we might even match it for 1 week. Can we make it 2 like it did back then? This year has been a year to remember! 

It's not out of the question according to last night's clusters - red areas indicating where the positive height anomalies will be (this is D15) - and they really haven't been showing anything substantially different for days.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062112_360.

This is a staggering D10 mean for upper temps:

EDM0-240.GIF?22-12

though I would caution, looking at the individual ensembles, there is a bit of a split between members following the op run (very hot even at D10) and those that have broken the heat slightly by that stage.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

GFS 0z goes a bit weird with the Atlantic appearing, not sure I believe that. ECM is gorgeous, low 30s in Scotland? ☀ 

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Posted
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

if you had been following them, youd see that despite a mean upper westerly flow, they had consistently suggested rising pressure.  they might not be the first to pick up on a new pattern, but they are the most accurate. who cares about being 'first'?... give me accuracy anyday and what matters if an accurate pattern is shown at 7 days or 14?

 

you are right, I was joking . our luck had to come with the almost perfect position of the high pressure (that if you like what is coming). Lack of rain is a concern though but you can't have everything...

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
12 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

GFS 0z goes a bit weird with the Atlantic appearing, not sure I believe that. ECM is gorgeous, low 30s in Scotland? ☀ 

I wouldn't worry about the Atlantic at this stage, the Jet Stream is in one of those good moods we only see every 20 years when it prefers a more Northernly track. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
23 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

you are right, I was joking . our luck had to come with the almost perfect position of the high pressure (that if you like what is coming). Lack of rain is a concern though but you can't have everything...

fair play sir :)

we are long overdue for a dry summer, (dry doesnt always mean hot , thinking 1979 for eg) , although the southeast has 'browned off' quite regularly in recent years , the rest of us hasnt. so tbh i believe the models suggesting some sort of continued high pressure domination.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Scorching gfs 06z even for early part of next week!!the high has now moved towards the east of the country and now winds are coming in from the south south east!!850 temps of +15 even as early as monday evening!!amazing how things have changed!!its gona feel seriously hot next week and i cant wait!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Spot the difference time.

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.3cb7d2e1cb5847ee2af3ea9268988f50.gif

archives-1976-6-26-0-0.thumb.png.dd40e6510dac2e81a0c3fa7b60dca956.png

A significant one is the low west of Portugal.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

I really hate it when all the beautiful green countryside turns brown, especially so early in the Summer. I'd love to see some rain in the outlook ☹️

Often hot weather leads to thunderstorms, what kind of synoptics would we need for that to happen? At the moment it just looks dry dry dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
5 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I really hate it when all the beautiful green countryside turns brown, especially so early in the Summer. I'd love to see some rain in the outlook ☹️

Often hot weather leads to thunderstorms, what kind of synoptics would we need for that to happen? At the moment it just looks dry dry dry.

I think we would need that cut-off low over Iberia/Portugal to move Northwards slightly.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
8 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I really hate it when all the beautiful green countryside turns brown, especially so early in the Summer. I'd love to see some rain in the outlook ☹️

Often hot weather leads to thunderstorms, what kind of synoptics would we need for that to happen? At the moment it just looks dry dry dry.

I actually quite liked the parched look, although I wouldn’t want to see it all the time as I would miss the green landscape.

Today’s weather is the worst combination if you don’t want to see parched ground - strong sunshine and a drying wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Spot the difference time.

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.3cb7d2e1cb5847ee2af3ea9268988f50.gif

archives-1976-6-26-0-0.thumb.png.dd40e6510dac2e81a0c3fa7b60dca956.png

If that ridge in the Atlantic can push over the top of the Iberia trough and join the high to our east, the 2018 chart could actually end up better for heat than the 1976 one - not only do we have the high pressure now, but 1976 did not have a low to the SW pumping heat up from the south.

I must stress, this is not a forecast - 1976 style conditions need a near perfect scenario. All I'm saying is that we are currently much much closer to this "perfection" than we have been at any time since 2003.

As things stand, I'd give the current pattern a 25% chance for 10 successive days above 30C somewhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS 6z turns on the blowtorch!

156-582UK.GIF?22-6180-582UK.GIF?22-6204-582UK.GIF?22-6228-582UK.GIF?22-6

29c Thursday, 30c+ Friday, Saturday & Sunday

Scorchio

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 6z turns on the blowtorch!

156-582UK.GIF?22-6180-582UK.GIF?22-6204-582UK.GIF?22-6228-582UK.GIF?22-6

29c Thursday, 30c+ Friday, Saturday & Sunday

Scorchio

Yup GFS forecasting 32C for next weekend and ECM 35C, could be a real scorcher of a week coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If that ridge in the Atlantic can push over the top of the Iberia trough and join the high to our east, the 2018 chart could actually end up better for heat than the 1976 one - not only do we have the high pressure now, but 1976 did not have a low to the SW pumping heat up from the south.

I must stress, this is not a forecast - 1976 style conditions need a near perfect scenario. All I'm saying is that we are currently much much closer to this "perfection" than we have been at any time since 2003.

As things stand, I'd give the current pattern a 25% chance for 10 successive days above 30C somewhere.

2006 came pretty close, just didn’t find a way to persist and the setup got totalled by the Atlantic coming back in. 

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