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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM looking fantastic at T192, big UK high with 850s of up to 14C, here:

image.thumb.jpg.b97dfc50073176d5811e692b3c07c5bb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.acf95e34047f5ea3e1704a176ad89313.jpg

Also worth noting the GFS parallel at the same time, no sign of the issues with the standard GFS, a great run also:

image.thumb.jpg.a864b416fb23b3c3fb3bacc1da546057.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.fd4e97bba8d2e7df0cf597b42f1e2769.jpg

Summer's here folks ☀️

Edit: GFS parallel still great guns at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.9dd34d4d895af1dd18e3418c872b0793.jpg

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow what an Ecm 12z, much hotter than yesterday's 12z..anyone who has next week off is in for a treat!:smile:

It would get very hot / humid and thundery later.?️stunning output.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow what an Ecm 12z, much hotter than yesterday's 12z..anyone who has next week off is in for a treat!:smile:

2 weeks after Frosty, Wimbledon could be off to a hot start, EC not quite in range yet, but this looks like potential storms from south at around 31 degrees

ECM1-216.GIF?21-0

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And the end of the ECM, looks like a thundery outbreak, possibly short lived, here at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.50f0567007ce06b073e301888811a986.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.afeea5c8028942ddadf7e5544f302348.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Cracking run. Day 6 onwards is going to vary so much between models, as they can’t even agree on the high location by 144 hours.

whats most reassuring is that the best two runs tonight are from the best two models - ecm and ukmo. If they say hot, I’m more willing to believe it!

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

Well from the runs tonight I wouldn’t be surprised some areas seeing the maximum break in terms of sunshine at 135hoursish between tomorrow and the end of the month. Incredible stuff! Brings back memories from 2013

Edited by Matthew.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Well from the runs tonight I wouldn’t be surprised some areas seeing the maximum break in terms of sunshine at 135hoursish between tomorrow and the end of the month. Incredible stuff! Brings back memories from 2013

North west again, like most of May, early June

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
41 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Why are people so fixated by hitting 35-36-37-38 degrees? All I care about is these are the best summer model runs for quite a while. Anything sunny and in 20s is comfortable enough for BBQs and any other out door activity. I’d rather have lower temperature that lasted for longer than scoring 38 degrees followed by thundery breakdown.

Because it’s so rare in this country. There is something appealing about extremes.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

The hottest spell of the summer of 1995 was from a slack easterly flow

NOAA_1_1995080118_1.png

indeed, only that came 6 weeks later then this one, and the north sea is still cold. the current modelling including todays noaa suggest a slack easterly . personally im not happy about that, we had similar in 2013 and we 'enjoyed' a cloudy cool weekend in the middle of that heatwave. just a few runs ago the runs were suggesting a thundery breakdown over next weekend, that option is off the table this evening.

cant see anything near 30c off an easterly, except perhaps in the far west. and north sea cloud is likely to spoil thing imho.

the latest 6-10 dayer

 

610day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Ironically although the 12z GFS synoptics look a bit poor, it's still very nice for many areas. 

GFSOPEU12_198_1.pngGFSOPUK12_198_17.png

GFS often under-does maxima by 2-3C too, like today here and numerous times in warm spells.

Apart from the GFS, I feel some concern about a slight easterly drift could be a bit over-done (or at least be IMBY). But then I guess an east or even NE flow favours here, and a SE/S breeze is when it's 'cooler' here relative to many. A lot of heatwaves/fine summer spells have a slight easterly drift at least some of the time.
I can see it being a bit annoying in the east but then us in the W/SW often have to deal with an onshore flow 

I assume mushymanrob hasn't seen the ECM 12z as that shows both the chance of 30C in more than the far west (IMO), and a thundery breakdown next weekend. A lot of options seem to be on the table though by then (as is normal though).

On another note I noticed how close the evolution of late June 1995 is to the current charts, including a brief toppler of cooler uppers on the 21st. Not sure how much significance that has though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Beautiful evolution of tonight's FIM9, brilliant weather for the UK, and when the high seems to be slipping away at the end, the next ridge off the Azores is well on the way at T240, enjoy:

tempresult_mbv9.gif

⚡☀️ I think summer 2018 will prove to be one of the really memorable ones!

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Posted
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
48 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well, for those of you wanting ridge dominated weather for a good 2 weeks the 500 mb anomaly charts show this well enough. For the 3rd day running, or is it 2(?), all 3 have ridge charts for the UK. Perhaps the best of the three is this evening from NOAA and their 8-14 carries this on.

mo chart this evening but will post in the morning if I get time.

and none of these were shown a good week ago... Great timing of this memorable spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

WOW!! I've just been having a read through this thread, and I have to admit I was half expecting to see a 'Summer is over post' with some of the doom and gloom on here! Lol :rofl:
For what its worth, my personal take on the charts this evening is that summer is far from over! Its about 95% certain got a heatwave hitting us next week, and as for the week after it looks like we could/might see some form of thundery outbreak, but even that is only 50/50 at the moment, and then we go back to being anticyclonic... Assuming the we even stop being anticyclonic in the first place! :)

Anyway, I know that people knock the CFS, but this is what the CFS is showing for the next four weeks... And from what I can see, only on week four does the current spell look like ending... And at week four, I wouldn't loose sleep over it, as that could all change by tomorrow. :good:

wk1.wk2_20180620.z500.gif

wk3.wk4_20180620.z500.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

UKMO this morning = Wow! 

even better than yesterday, high in the right place, and actually gets hotter with some 16c air coming in. GFS has dropped that mad 12z run and come more into line. Looking like full steam ahead!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Brilliant output this morning!!heatwave and temps up to 30 degrees back on!!high further south on gfs and ukmo is just amazing from start to finish!!oh and a brilliant ecm up to 120 hours so far!!15 degree 850 temps coming up into southern england at 120 hours!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM outstanding also at 144 hours:

ECM1-144.GIF?22-12ECM0-144.GIF?22-12

850s up to 16-17c along the south coast, warm or hot across the board really. Looks like everyone is invited to this party.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

The models this morning are giving the impression of the best last third of June since 1976. Outstanding charts this morning again with 22c-30c across the board easily from sunday. 

Edit: 35c somewhere from ECM on friday

E2BE75A2-7EFD-4257-B5EA-E0D16A626218.jpeg

Edited by Matthew.
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