Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Djdazzle]

I’m just watching the GFS unfold for entertainment value. It just doesn’t look realistic to me.

[Frosty.]

All this moaning about the Gfs 12z and yet it's showing an increasingly lovely weekend coming up and most of next week looks glorious with very warm and sunny weather under high pressure..beyond that is FI!

[Djdazzle]

Interesting further into FI, the Greenland high just vanishes and we are back to HP to the east - almost like it just got teleported there. As Frosty mentioned deep FI so not to be taken seriously!

Edited June 21, 2018 by Djdazzle

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m just watching the GFS unfold for entertainment value. It just doesn’t look realistic to me.

You know what, it's really encouraging how the Azores High acts like it's winter and still manages to find a way to ridge back across the UK by 4th July .

A truly fascinating run, but as you imply, it pushes at the limits of credibility. For what it's worth, it would also be the worst possible outcome for the Arctic sea ice, unleashing a heavy assault on the ice that has so far been spared the worst of the melting, while stirring up what's already undergone enough melting to leave it very vulnerable to wind and wave activity.

So it's a demon of a run, something to hope against with everything you've got. Unless you're an evil overlord or something .

[Weather-history]

Sure is a vile run as a one poster has described it.......vile if you love rain! Look how dry that run is, that's out to the 6th July. Recent summer months have regularly breeched the 100mm mark  for the month. So let's get some perspective. 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Weather-history

[matty007]

Slowly degrading as we move closer, as usual. 

Going to be a lovely spell of weather for sure, but it’s very irritating to see slow downgrades every time we approach a nice spell. 

[Mike Poole]

Interesting to compare runs at T144, here's ICON, UKMO and GFS:

ICON has easterly flow across the south, UKMO south of east, and GFS more south easterly, so the GFS looks good at this point, which is in the semi-reliable.  The evolution thereafter looks a bit weird and I'm not buying it until it shows up on other models.

No sign of GEM this evening. 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Sure is a vile run as a one poster has described it.......vile if you love rain! Look how dry that run is, that's out to the 6th July. Recent summer months have regularly breeched the 100mm mark  for the month. So let's get some perspective. 

And out to 384hrs and if you look at the tip of Cornwall, it is a completely dry.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Weather-history

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

Slowly degrading as we move closer, as usual. 

Going to be a lovely spell of weather for sure, but it’s very irritating to see slow downgrades every time we approach a nice spell. 

UKMO looks very good still and in the shorter term the GFS is warmer than its last run.

[cheese]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Sure is a vile run as a one poster has described it.......vile if you love rain! Look how dry that run is, that's out to the 6th July. Recent summer months have regularly breeched the 100mm mark  for the month. So let's get some perspective. 

Doesn't matter if it's dry if we're getting plagued by low cloud. Of course on your side of the Pennines that will not be an issue.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Whilst I’m sure the GFS will change its tune as we go on, I can’t remember such warm air appearing from the east, other than perhaps 2003, that started off as a huge, slack generally easterly flow continent wide, with all the hot air piling up over W Europe. As said previously, North Sea coasts would be pretty dismal, but out west, it would be a complete stark contrast with 30c perhaps in spots such as Blackpool, Liverpool, W Scotland and SW England. 

UKMO is simply stunning, and more within the reliable timeframe too. So I’m not too worried about the 12z, let’s just watch it unfold day by day and relax! 

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Whilst I’m sure the GFS will change its tune as we go on, I can’t remember such warm air appearing from the east, other than perhaps 2003, that started off as a huge, slack generally easterly flow continent wide, with all the hot air piling up over W Europe.

The hottest spell of the summer of 1995 was from a slack easterly flow

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12z is a genuine possibility if you ask me. Quite plausible that the Iberian low will push NE and join the low to the E. Next week would remain high 20s but starting to cool down in the east next weekend. Probably a temporary blip. 

... Or the UKMO, another plausible outcome, keeping it settled for longer and hotter too. 

Not really possible to choose between the two beyond T144. Plenty of good weather to enjoy before then anyway. 

[SizzlingHeat]

Disappointed in the gradual decline in high pressure from the GFS particularly. We all mocked the ECM last night shifting the high further north but it's come back to bite with that high pushing further north with each run. Still lovely across the most part next week but becoming increasingly uninspiring afterwards. The UKMO is much better but I feel its the outcome of the ECM to decide which way this is going.

 

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS 12z is a genuine possibility if you ask me. Quite plausible that the Iberian low will push NE and join the low to the E. Next week would remain high 20s but starting to cool down in the east next weekend. Probably a temporary blip. 

... Or the UKMO, another plausible outcome, keeping it settled for longer and hotter too. 

Not really possible to choose between the two beyond T144. Plenty of good weather to enjoy before then anyway. 

Yes, the GEFS are all over the place at T240, there does seem to be an extra dollop of uncertainty in the mix this afternoon, here it is - the spread at T240:

Big change compared to the 6z suite, does make me wonder what has changed in six hours.  Awaiting the ECM and GEM with interest.

Edit: actually GEM great at T162:

Edited June 21, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Disappointed in the gradual decline in high pressure from the GFS particularly. We all mocked the ECM last night shifting the high further north but it's come back to bite with that high pushing further north with each run. Still lovely across the most part next week but becoming increasingly uninspiring afterwards. The UKMO is much better but I feel its the outcome of the ECM to decide which way this is going.

 

The ECM won’t decide anything! It’s a model!

GEM looking good out to 144.

[SizzlingHeat]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

The ECM won’t decide anything! It’s a model!

GEM looking good out to 144.

No but it correctly called the northern push of the high so it's obviously ahead of the game. If the ECM follows suit with gfs I think we can say it's a very plausible outcome

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is excellent with high pressure, warmth / heat well into FI..very warm / hot for southern uk with temps into the mid / high 20's celsius. Further into FI there are hints of a thundery spell followed by more azores high / ridging...it's very summery through late june and early July and looking at the models generally today there is good potential for some major heat next week with 30 celsius plus for favoured areas.

[SizzlingHeat]

19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The ECM won’t decide anything! It’s a model!

GEM looking good out to 144.

Although, all good to 120 so far!

[Mike Poole]

GEM done now, here at T240:

UK in a col at the end, but 850s of 12C widespread, surface temperatures up to mid twenties at least.  No obvious end to settled spell, decent run! 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM

Compared to yesterday

The 500mb ridge pushing north into the UK is much stronger, in fact we have the 16C approaching the south coast so 30C looks very possible across southern England by then if this verifes, very close to the UKMO tonight as well. That omega shaped ridge is the key to continue to keep heights higher over the UK and to continue building the heat northwards.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[CheesepuffScott]

ECM out to T144. Looking like an improvement over last run.

Edited June 21, 2018 by CheesepuffScott

[mb018538]

Cracking ecm out to 168, that’ll do lovely thank you!

[Man With Beard]

ECM is really, really good for next week. Hot - and settled too. 

[shaky]

Sublime ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!high further south and 850s close to 15 degrees!!