Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Guest]

Gfs 06z ensemble suggest the ops run was in the warmest third most of the way through and a warm outlier towards the end of the week.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Gfs 06z ensemble suggest the ops run was in the warmest third most of the way through and a warm outlier towards the end of the week.

I wouldn’t say it’s an outlier per se, it has other ensemble member support throughout.

either way the mean stays above 10c for a significant period of time, so staying warm for most.

[Djdazzle]

Re the 29c achieved in April with 12-14 uppers, there wasn’t an easterly drift associated with that.

if the 6z can’t be a warm outlier surely?

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is actually fantastic..becoming hot across southern uk and warm  /  very warm everywhere else with loads of sunshine thanks to extensive high pressure / azores ridging..and this isn't positive spin, it's what's shown and trying to add some balance to the negative / misleading comments!.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Just seen BBC weather they are still confident of a heatwave next week....   

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Just seen BBC weather they are still confident of a heatwave next week....   

38.5c could you imagine if it hit 38.5c!!that would be amazing!!!for that the high has to move another 300 miles further east lol!!

[Timmytour]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks superb..increasingly anticyclonic very warm spell on the way..and for some..HOT!

 

Could do with the Azores high retreating back to where it should be for the month of July.  Not looking too good for my holiday in Cape Verde at the moment!

[Britneyfan]

Going by the gfs you can easily add a few degrees onto its output as it always undercooks temps, so if it shows 27 degrees normally we can reach 29 or 30 so I would not be surprised to see a 30 or 31 later next week 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Re the 29c achieved in April with 12-14 uppers, there wasn’t an easterly drift associated with that.

if the 6z can’t be a warm outlier surely?

Anyone would think there’s a beasterly! The reality winds will be very light the UHI of London will work to full pelt, great set up for homegrown heat and optimum time for it too with the shortest nights.

[mb018538]

UKMO holding rock steady, following on from this morning with another great run. Most of the UK under 12-15c 850 air, so it’s hot hot hot!

[shaky]

Another fantastic ukmo with high pressue slap bang across the country!!gfs not bad aswell now with more of a continental influence and drawing up warm air from france!!easy mid to high 20s on these charts i can only assume!!

[mb018538]

GFS churning out an odd looking run tonight, very different to what we’ve seen....let’s see how it stacks up.

[Djdazzle]

GFS certainly looks like a hotter run with less of an easterly influence and a cut off low to the west will help advect the warmer air.

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS certainly looks like a hotter run with less of an easterly influence and a cut off low to the west will help advect the warmer air.

But then more of an easterly influence around the 168 192 hour mark but still very warm and sunny with 850s of +13!!very weird indeed!!

[Djdazzle]

I’ve never seen a summer chart like T180 on the GFS. That would be a dream in January . . .

[sausage]

yep the gfs has easterlies developing yet warmer air. all good if thats the case. doubt low misty cloud with such high uppers!!

[mb018538]

Don’t like the look of the gfs myself, stiff easterly setting in once more could mean a lot of haar again. Hopefully an outlier, something along the lines of ukmo would be ace.

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, sausage said:

yep the gfs has easterlies developing yet warmer air. all good if thats the case. doubt low misty cloud with such high uppers!!

Warmer temps at 850 would mean exactly that, crossing over relatively cool sea water. Not good at all.

[Frosty.]

Perfect / Perfick Ukmo 12z

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, sausage said:

yep the gfs has easterlies developing yet warmer air. all good if thats the case. doubt low misty cloud with such high uppers!!

My location never escapes, no expert but would have thought high uppers, hot land and cold seas will increase chances of sea mist? only really late Jul to late Sept could be okay, as that's when the seas are at their warmest

Edited June 21, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Don’t like the look of the gfs myself, stiff easterly setting in once more could mean a lot of haar again. Hopefully an outlier, something along the lines of ukmo would be ace.

It’s going downhill into FI - seems determined to regress that high any way it can.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s going downhill into FI - seems determined to regress that high any way it can.

It’s vile - probably the worst run we’ve seen since this warm spell appeared a few days ago. If we get anything like that we’re going to have a lot of narked off people, myself included! Let’s hope it’s a big outlier. Will check the postage stamps later to see how it compares.

[Singularity]

Yes this is nicely done by the UKMO 12z; the low dropping down from Sweden stays a good way east, leaving the plume positioned across the UK with little if any moderation.

It's conceivable that the low by Iceland will re-orientate the high by the following day such that we see more of a S component to the flow - but the shallow low west of Iberia may also be given a chance to develop a bit and try to destabilise our weather from the southwest, much as a number of GFS runs have shown in recent days (but not today as of the 12z!).

 

I see GFS has managed to find yet another solution, this one featuring that rarest of phenomena - a flaming northeasterly! 

Well okay, not quite flaming, but I expect actual maxima would be widely in the high 20s for CS and SW England. The prospect of such warmth on a NE flow is interesting as we'd see some unusual hot spots would be observed. Not very attractive to heat seekers near and along eastern coasts, though! The one saving grace is that the air is drier than we've seen in recent easterlies, so low cloud would be much less of an issue.

...not that this run seems very likely to be near the mark, given that each new day brings corrections by the model away from the Nina-like patterns that support such retrogression of high pressure. The pattern NW of us is a world away from that of recent ECM runs.

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Singularity
Low Cloud Mention

[BruenSryan]

The GFS ensembles are also showing the indexes (NAO and AO) going into negative territory through the first week of July indicating the Greenland blocking that the 12z forms. Oh boy.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

It’s vile - probably the worst run we’ve seen since this warm spell appeared a few days ago. If we get anything like that we’re going to have a lot of narked off people, myself included! Let’s hope it’s a big outlier. Will check the postage stamps later to see how it compares.

Yes, worst direction for here, see what EC says later, this screams 16 degrees and misty/windy for here, at least in FI