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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks superb..increasingly anticyclonic very warm spell on the way..and for some..HOT!:smile:?️

EDM1-96.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

 

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The low west of Iberia has been adjusted to a weaker system, leaving us more dependent on what goes on between our NE and our SE for how much heat we import as opposed to generate ourselves.

If the low to our SE is also being overdeveloped, that should mean less of a cooler air feed from NE/E of us but we’ll be relying on homegrown heat for reaching the 30s. Possibly the outcome that would be at least satisfactory for the largest proportion of the population? 00z ECM is more or less along these lines.

Alternatively, if it adjusted west, we could get a feed of hot air from SE Europe - but likely at the risk of some instability in the south. The best outcome for southern thunder-lovers. Not seeing this in any deterministic model runs at the moment.

The best outcome for some serious heat is instead an adjustment of that low east to leave room for a ridge between it and the weak low west of Iberia. Our own high gains a ‘dangling tail’ on the western flank of which hot air is drawn north. This is what the 00z GEM does and 00z UKMO looks capable of doing.

...or we could have the more easterly feed of the GFS 00z, which is the best outcome for those who like it fine but very warm at most.

 

As a range of options go, I’ve seen much worse :) 

Edited by Singularity
East not West!
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Looks as though the 06Z run will end up going even more easterly as our high is linking up with increasing heights over Scandi - so again the trend away from heatwave to warm/very warm. I really think getting to 30C at this rate is going to be unlikely in this setup. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gorgeous 06z!!high slightly further south than the ecm!!850s better than ecm aswell!!out to 168 hours so far!!

Spot on...it's gorgeous and still half the run to update..

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14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Great. Two posts which totally contradict each other.

 GFS has nothing above mid 20's to Thursday now bar the London UHI. Seems like a gradual trend and from about 168/180hrs out looks like we are going to end up in no-mans land. 

Lets not forget 5/6days ago GFS and the other models had a max forecast for today of 30C.........I wouldn't better against high pressure regressing notably westwards again in a repeat of this week actual and there being no real heat at all? No I know you'll all moan at that, however its a possibility with current trending. 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks as though the 06Z run will end up going even more easterly as our high is linking up with increasing heights over Scandi - so again the trend away from heatwave to warm/very warm. I really think getting to 30C at this rate is going to be unlikely in this setup. 

Easterly are ok in summer time unless it's a cloudy easterly.

There's absolutely nothing in the outputs to suggest anything other than very warm hot weather to come.

The jet stream is of to our north and blocks like being shown are robust and can establish itself for a fair amount of time.

Also add the Iberian low which will wobble about allowing air to be sucked up from the south or southeast.

Been fascinating model watching for months.

I don't see anything to moan about at all.

Solid runs background signals also holding steady.

Solar activity has dropped over the last 24hours to.

All makes interesting observations.

Delighted with 2018 already.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Spot on...it's gorgeous and still half the run to update..

Temps of 23c in London on Wednesday. I normally agree with you Frosty but there is no sugar coating that. Not even above average, let alone warm / hot.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, rain_shadow said:

Honestly, who cares about the 30 C and sunshine when we have 25C and sunshine. We should very grateful for this set up, even without the 30C-s...it will be even more comfortable.

I couldn't give a monkey's about 30c..mid 20's c is lovely..easier to work in too!..great model output, me thinks some are being too critical.

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So warm spell goes out with a whimper on this run as HP regress well into the Atlantic opening the door for the north westerlies to enter to the picture. Please, please, please be an outlier......

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So warm spell goes out with a whimper on this run as HP regress well into the Atlantic opening the door for the north westerlies to enter to the picture. Please, please, please be an outlier......

I suspect it is an outlier. But the weather can make fools of us all.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Although the heatwave looks to be dead in the water now unless we see a change on the 12z runs.

You may have just opened up the old debate about "what constitutes a heatwave"!

For the last week in June, I think this will do for very settled and warm/hot:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062100_192.

No real way out from a very warm outcome there.

The 582 line / positive height anomalies still very close or over us by D15 on all clusters. Doesn't look like a return to Atlantic driven weather for quite some time. Short-term breakdowns from the SW probably the only option for rain, if there is one (just maybe some fronts into the NW):

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062100_360.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You may have just opened up the old debate about "what constitutes a heatwave"!

For the last week in June, I think this will do for very settled and warm/hot:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062100_192.

No real way out from a very warm outcome there.

The 582 line / positive height anomalies still very close or over us by D15 on all clusters. Doesn't look like a return to Atlantic driven weather for quite some time. Short-term breakdowns from the SW probably the only option for rain, if there is one:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062100_360.

Subjective I know, but a good run of 27C days with a couple of 30C days is what I would consider a heatwave. At no point on 06z does London even have a day at that level. Most of it looks average or slightly above - not really a heatwave. And the poor east coast folks will get punished again. Maybe not with clag, but with disappointing cool temps for high summer.

Caveat - the above is based on the 6z run.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, Djdazzle said:

Subjective I know, but a good run of 27C days with a couple of 30C days is what I would consider a heatwave. At no point on 06z does London even have a day at that level. Most of it looks average or slightly above - not really a heatwave. And the poor east coast folks will get punished again. Maybe not with clag, but with disappointing cool temps for high summer.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I don't get the heatwave dead posts at all? Sure we may not get 31-32c that was shown a couple of days ago, but as we often say, at that sort of range it's never nailed down. We look like we are starting to firm up on maximum temps in the mid to upper twenties instead, sunshine abound. Take next Thursday on the 6z GFS for example:

180-582UK.GIF?21-6

Temperatures widely in the 25-27c range, probably be revised up a notch..

174-600UK.GIF?21-6174-101UK.GIF?21-6

Humidity down in the 40s and 50s, dew points in single/low double figures....it'll feel fantastic rather than oppressive. Loads to look forward to!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

What are some folk talking about... we almost made 30C with 12-13C uppers in April. 2 months later with stronger sun factor in how everything’s dried out by these abnormally dry conditions - ECM quite likely would achieve successive 30c days. Finishes off great too....

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Subjective I know, but a good run of 27C days with a couple of 30C days is what I would consider a heatwave. At no point on 06z does London even have a day at that level. Most of it looks average or slightly above - not really a heatwave. And the poor east coast folks will get punished again. Maybe not with clag, but with disappointing cool temps for high summer.

Caveat - the above is based on the 6z run.

I'm not sure about that - based on the experience that GFS maximums are often 2-3C undercooked, I could see at least 4 days next week between 27C and 30C on the GFS 06Z op.

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

Some of the moaning on here could almost compete with iceman 85 !!

What's to moan about? A high pressure dominated run in high summer with temps of mid to high twenties widely.

The charts a couple of days ago have blinded people with +15c uppers and temps in the 30s. Yes its showing cooler weather (for now but that could easily change) but still SUNNY and very warm with lovely temps above average and little if any rain.

Going back to June 2012 we would be crying out for charts only half as good as the ones for next week. Puts things into perspective. Heatwave looking less likely next week but warm or very warm for most with chances of 30c or more still not entirely out of the question!

People spend more time searching for the weather they desire than actually stepping outside and enjoying the weather we have/upcoming.

25 degrees, 27 degrees or 30 degrees, it's still fantastic nonetheless

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Posted
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL
  • Location: Allerton Bywater, Castleford, West Yorkshire. 15m ASL

I never post in here as I aren't knowledgeable enough but have read on here for years, some people on here are pretty sad.  I love the weather mainly because of the extremes, in between weather doesn't really interest me, however if this time it isn't going to be a heatwave who cares, the weather is still going to be great.  Warm settled and no rain sounds good to me why can't people just enjoy that fact.  It puts me off reading half of the time due to some of the wind up/troll like posts and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

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