Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Most likely a technical issue it happens to most of the models now and then

It’s probably looked at NAVGEM and choked!

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I think its daily express programmed

Lol - I saw this and went the Express website and alarmingly their heatwave article was quite accurate suggesting a few days at 30c or slightly above. Maybe Nathan’s got a new job - let’s just hope he’s not the new brexit reporter - ‘UK economy to be hit by £19 quintrillon divorce bill’ which ironically is almost the same I wha my Ex thought she was entitled from me lol....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's crap.

Agreed it is the most unreliable, but it doesn’t mean to say it’s entirely impossible, although we all know the chances are extremely remote. Under the right circumstances however, I really do believe we can do it. Uppers will ideally need to be 22+c between mid July and mid August, an uninterrupted slack flow from S’ern Spain, lasting for a few days. 

Nevertheless every model and forecaster at some point have had some big blunders, take the met office on a few occasions, with the unforgettable 2007 barbecue summer! And also past tornadic storm setup days I.e 28th July 2005 and 28th June 2012, which the met office only went as far as describing these forecasted showers on these exceptional days as heavy thundery showers! A bit of an understatement given the severity and danger to life the storms on these days posed. 

In a nutshell, everyone and everything can have their ‘crap’ days! 

Edited June 20, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Agreed it is the most unreliable, but it doesn’t mean to say it’s entirely impossible, although we all know the chances are extremely remote. Under the right circumstances however, I really do believe we can do it. Uppers will ideally need to be 22+c between mid July and mid August, an uninterrupted slack flow from S’ern Spain, lasting for a few days. 

Nevertheless every model and forecaster at some point have had some big blunders, take the met office on a few occasions, with the unforgettable 2007 barbecue summer! And also past tornadic storm setup days I.e 28th July 2005 and 28th June 2012, which the met office only went as far as describing these forecasted showers on these exceptional days as heavy thundery showers! A bit of an understatement given the severity and danger to life the storms on these days posed. 

In a nutshell, everyone and everything can have it’s ‘crap’ days! 

40C is definitely possible and has almost certainly been achieved in the U.K. before accurate records were kept.

[Mike Poole]

GEM 12z finally out here at T192:

That's all good. The T240 not without interest 

Edited June 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

GFS 18z is astonishing. Then goes for a reload!

[CheesepuffScott]

GFS 18z is ! High 20s-low 30s all the way out to FI

[Chris.R]

A bit IMBY I know but next week is also looking perfect for the foehn effect and other topographical factors to maximise the heat across lowland NW England. Wouldn’t be surprised if we match the Southeast occasionally  in temperatures after Monday. 

[Guest]

A great run again from GFS this morning but it positions HP further norther like ECM last night and subsequently there’s a struggle to build any real heat. It takes until Wednesday to past 25c and doesn’t produce any 30c’s as the warmth is solely relying on day on Day heating with almost no warm adevection from the south. There’s a clear trend to show this in the ensembles too in additon to support from the UKMO so while a stunning spell of weather looks highly likely a true heatwave seems unlikely.

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A great run again from GFS this morning but it positions HP further norther like ECM last night and subsequently there’s a struggle to build any real heat. It takes until Wednesday to past 25c and doesn’t produce any 30c’s as the warmth is solely relying on day on Day heating with almost no warm adevection from the south. There’s a clear trend to show this in the ensembles too in additon to support from the UKMO so while a stunning spell of weather looks highly likely a true heatwave seems unlikely.

Yeh in the end i dont think we will end up as cool as the ecm 12z but it also dont think we will end up as hot as the gfs 18z from last night!!ukmo looks more likely with the high sat pretty much right over the uk with mid to high 20s temperatures!!still pretty darn hot if you ask me lol

[SizzlingHeat]

The GEM this morning is a sight of beauty. High pressure anchored favourably for the entire week with 850s approaching 18-19c by the weekend across the south. Widely beweetn 12 and 17 uppers from mid week. Looks fantastic! 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The GEM this morning is a sight of beauty. High pressure anchored favourably for the entire week with 850s approaching 18-19c by the weekend across the south. Widely beweetn 12 and 17 uppers from mid week. Looks fantastic! 

Yes the GeM solution is optimal to and would have a reload from the Azores waiting in the wings.

[SizzlingHeat]

Just now, Alderc said:

Yes the GeM solution is optimal to and would have a reload from the Azores waiting in the wings.

Looks phenomenal. The heat generated from midweek and particularly towards the end of the week would be well into the mid thirties for many if this solution was anywhere close. Even from the start of the week it's very warm with high twenties from Sunday / Monday.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Looks phenomenal. The heat generated from midweek and particularly towards the end of the week would be well into the mid thirties for many if this solution was anywhere close. Even from the start of the week it's very warm with high twenties from Sunday / Monday.

Agreed, however it certainly appears to be a notable outlier this morning when comparing against the other models. So mid twenties until the middle of next week maybe 28-30c back end of next week. 

[mb018538]

Fantastic runs this morning. The GEM isn't without support either, it's very, very similar to the UKMO chart at 144 hours:

GEM 144/UKMO144


Both have 850s of 12-14c across a good chunk of the country, so you'd say a 30c+ looks on the cards for Tuesday/Wednesday/both.
GFS also looking decent, so no complaints there either.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/06/20/12/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062012_240.png

Last night's wobbly ECM not really sitting with the ensembles either, so nothing to get worried about at the moment. Won't bother with anything post 10 days, as that's not worth worrying about at the moment.
 

[SizzlingHeat]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Agreed, however it certainly appears to be a notable outlier this morning when comparing against the other models. So mid twenties until the middle of next week maybe 28-30c back end of next week. 

Although it may be an outlier when comparing across models, it certainly isn't an outlier when it's viewed amongst other members in the ensembles. Many of the perturbations going above 15 and up to 18-19c in some instances. The mean sits comfortably between 10-15c uppers right through until 2nd week of July. This is for Poole (south coast) but still pretty representative nationwide 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Alderc

[Guest]

ECM this to 144hrs taking the high in a more northerly position like last night and this mornings GFS and as with its predecessor a slower rise in temps and uppers. Clearly still a very good start to the day in model land.

[mb018538]

ECM not as good as the others again this morning, high orientated slightly too far to the west up against that disturbance in SE of Europe - net result is that the higher 850s are lower, and take longer to arrive. Starting to make an impression from the west by midweek, but nowhere near as good as the others this morning. One to watch,

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is only out to T+192 so far but already looks fantastic with high pressure dominating and becoming very warm /  hot across the uk..wonderful!

Out to T+216..it's better ( warmer / hotter) than yesterday's 12z..great run!...cracking run and a great finish..high summer conditions across the board.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Guest]

I think emphasis is shifting away from a major heatwave now and talk of low thirties (apart from in the GEM) solution generally looks unlikely in the major models this morning but there’s still going to be at least a week of summer weather. One thing we need to watch out for in the next few runs is that high pressure doesn’t end up too far away.....

[mb018538]

I'm also not going to get stung like I did last year!

We had those 5 days of 30c+, and temps pushed 35c on the 21st June. I honestly thought after that spell that summer 2017 was going to be a corker....July was average first half, then terrible....August was unsettled and 0.6c below average, then September was unsettled and below average too.

As good as May (2nd warmest on record) and June (shaping up to be near the best June months on record) have been thus far, no guarantees on the rest of summer!

[shaky]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

A great run again from GFS this morning but it positions HP further norther like ECM last night and subsequently there’s a struggle to build any real heat. It takes until Wednesday to past 25c and doesn’t produce any 30c’s as the warmth is solely relying on day on Day heating with almost no warm adevection from the south. There’s a clear trend to show this in the ensembles too in additon to support from the UKMO so while a stunning spell of weather looks highly likely a true heatwave seems unlikely.

Ecm 00z is better today!!doesnt take the high any further north and also 850 temps looks higher aswell in the second part of the run!!easily late 20s i think for much of next week on the ecm!!

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm 00z is better today!!doesnt take the high any further north and also 850 temps looks higher aswell in the second part of the run!!easily late 20s i think for much of next week on the ecm!!

I agree with shaky..I described the Ecm 00z further up the page and it's better than last night's 12z...i.e..hotter and with a stronger high and better longevity wise, the 12z yesterday was also very good though...super spell incoming according to the 00z runs that's for sure!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I think emphasis is shifting away from a major heatwave now and talk of low thirties (apart from in the GEM) solution generally looks unlikely in the major models this morning but there’s still going to be at least a week of summer weather. One thing we need to watch out for in the next few runs is that high pressure doesn’t end up too far away.....

In general yes, I think this is the way the models have gone in the last 24 hours - consensus is building around a week of high 20Cs (maybe a 30C), so still in the "heatwave" category for me but nothing record breaking. The EC clusters dropped the "plume" cluster last night (you'd expect heights directly to our E or SE, with lower heights SW):

 

Although looking at the EC ensemble members on weather.us, I think it may have revived that cluster this morning.

And just something in the back of my head - models always seem content to show cut-off lows over Biscay/Iberia as stable in the T144-T240 period, but I feel 8 times out of 10 they become less stable once you hit T72-T120 and want to head NE - so I would not be surprised at all to see that low to our SW eventually try to push NE a bit more, probably by D9/D10 - which would either mean a link up with troughing to the east and stronger easterly flow for the UK (still mainly settled), or if the link up did not happen, it would encourage a plume followed by a thundery breakdown. Just my guessing at this stage.

Anyway, main headline remains warm or hot next week with spells of sunshine.