Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z looks great to me, mid / high 20's celsius with tons of sunshine..can't believe anyone would moan about that!

[SizzlingHeat]

Less hot ECM. Unlikely to breach 30 anywhere with that setup. Still sunny and 'very warm' rather than 'hot' with temps of 28c I would imagine. Still fantastic and only another possible variation to the theme. See where it sits on the ensembles later 

[ICE COLD]

Yep the ECM 12 not as good for you summer lovers as the 00z run . By day 9 850s are 4 or 5 lower than this morning . 

00z - 

12z - 

As we say in the winter that's a downgrade

[SizzlingHeat]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep the ECM 12 not as good for you summer lovers as the 00z run . By day 9 850s are 4 or 5 lower than this morning . 

00z - 

12z - 

As we say in the winter that's a downgrade

At T216 I won't pay much attention to minor variations. As long as the high is still in place, small changes will cause subtle temperature changes. Still high twenties on this chart though so unlikely to be particularly noticeable at surface level whether it's 28-29 or 31-32. Still lovely.

[Frosty.]

Yes a really disappointing Ecm 12, lots of high pressure, lots of sunshine and temperatures poor, only getting into the mid / high 20's c..bin it!!!

Edited June 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Yes ECM the least brilliant of the bunch this evening, still warm, dry and decent, just not the really hot spell, and ends averagely at T240:

Still this spell extends 10 days so the models will still chop and change for a while.

 

Edited June 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Captain Shortwave]

I think for anyone who wants the heat, the good news is the depth of those cut off lows seem to be overdone in the longer ranges, a bit unlucky really as the depth of that cold pool allows a ridge to suddenly appear over Western Russia, which goes against the majority of the model guidance and general forecasts for the coming couple of weeks. This also allows the high to get pushed eastwards later on. It is still fine and warm to day 10 with any easterly reserved for southern England which shouldn't pose a problem regarding cloud amounts.

So in the end;

1) The run is going against general model guidance at the moment, if it repeats and gains model support then it is an evolution that can be considered more likely.

2) cut off cold pools like this tend to be overdone and are often weaker come the day in question which would mitigate half the issues with the evolution shown here.

The outlook remains fine and very warm and potentially hot as we move through next week.

The irritation here is the introduction of a cut off low into eastern Europe adds a level of uncertainty into the mid-range forecast that will probably be the cause of argmuents for those who like/dislike high temperatures. 

Edited June 20, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[cheese]

28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FI and just a variation of the theme I know, but my location is the capital of north sea mist, this to me looks very misty?

Yes, that chart doesn't look good for here, probably dull and misty with those awful easterlies returning again (wish they'd go away forever).

[Djdazzle]

ECM prob a cold outlier. Would still deliver 30c rather than 32/33.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

No doubt the ECM is dangling a carrot again, but if its onto something, it would produce better conditions than its god awful previous runs have. 26 is preferable to sodding 32.

agree fully there, but EC at least for 2 days, suggests to me north sea mist, and 16 degrees, it can take until past 2pm to lift, at least for my location

W areas look hot with unbroken sun

Edited June 20, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Singularity]

I agree with @Captain Shortwave that the ECM 12z run seems out of kilter with the consensus of late.

The departure begins on the 5th day so it will be quite the shakeup if all the other models now follow suit. It's happened before so it can't be ruled out, but I suspect this run might be akin to one of those in winter that suddenly shows a bitter easterly against the run of play.

Now just watch those models align toward the not-so-hot easterly outcome tomorrow .

For what it's worth, ECM generally has maximums in the mid-20s Mon-Wed, then high 20s through to run's end, but with the highest temps generally central parts westward, as one with expect in an easterly flow. So far from disappointing unless you're hoping for temps getting into the 30s in some spots (let alone widespread temps into the 30s!).

Ha @Ice Man 85, I was just thinking you must have enjoyed watching the ECM 12z roll out! 

Edited June 20, 2018 by Singularity
Temp Stuff

[Frosty.]

Superb Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, next week looks very summery indeed!

Edited June 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean at T192, T240:

it looks from this that the op was an outlier with the high moving farther north.  Need to see the clusters to back this up.  Any road, as far as the mean is concerned, good to see the 12C contour well into the south still:

Go summer 2018 

[Mike Poole]

For those underwhelmed by the ECM 12z, check out where the FIM9 gets to, heading to full on plume mode, here at T240:

Summer model porn 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

ECM 12z still very summery and BBQ weather. Who can complain? Probably just a one run wobbler.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM 12z 850s not as high as the 00z run . Which is better for everyone , as it's more bearable .  

It will be on the cooler side of the ensembles, but still fairly warm all the same - except on the SE coast once again. If this is worst case scenario for heat lovers, things must be good! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

For those underwhelmed by the ECM 12z, check out where the FIM9 gets to, heading to full on plume mode, here at T240:

Summer model porn 

Would be good elevated activity to my eye from that. However, if we still have the hot uppers and the jet stream starts to ride over them, then that would create the recipe for the real severe potential, prolonging the storms, becoming organised and of course, supercell potential. 

[Man With Beard]

Looking at ECM individual ensembles on weather.us, still set pretty well until 29th but the sense of model chaos from about 30th June has grown even further from this morning. High pressure generally losing its grip at this point. But with heat probably already in the UK, some very interesting possibilities from plumes to thundery washouts - or perhaps a new Azores ridge moving in. Being still at D10, though, not worthy of more than a 'watch' for now. 

[Djdazzle]

Regarding the 40C temp prediction on NAVGEM, what is it with that model that allows in to produce such extreme values?

Edited June 20, 2018 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Regarding the 40C temp prediction on NAVGEM, what is it with thst model that allows in to produce such extreme values?

It's crap.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's crap.

Yes but why? What is it about the way that it is programmed?

[SizzlingHeat]

Why is the GEM 12z taking so long to trickle out? Would be good to have seen the input from this model this evening given its consistency of late.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Why is the GEM 12z taking so long to trickle out? Would be good to have seen the input from this model this evening given its consistency of late.

Most likely a technical issue it happens to most of the models now and then

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes but why? What is it about the way that it is programmed?

I think its daily express programmed

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes but why? What is it about the way that it is programmed?

Something is clearly wrong with it and it’s been like that for years, I think last year it had closed a 42c isotherm over London.

Looking at next week where it has 40c progged, it’s 850s are higher than all the other models, though not outlandishly high at 18c or so indicating a jump of 22c to surface conditions which is just silly. 18c in the other models would generate 33/34c. Maybe it’s like GFS’s DPs and if this silly max parameters are changed it’s loses further integrity in the other areas creating far more unrealistic synoptic output????