Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Methuselah]

26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Deep FI. How many times do we see heat simply blown away only for it to hang on?

The same number of times as we see heat hang on, only for it to be blown away? It's called 'FI' for a reason.

[cheese]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ESE wind wouldn’t be bad at all. Would be warm and dry.

SE winds are great here, ESE a bit iffy.

[Singularity]

So GFS has tried out the more wavy Atlantic jet, but still delivered a long run of mainly very warm to quite hot days for much of lowland E&W, punctuated only by a brief thundery breakdown with a quick rebuild of HP right through the UK.

Very encouraging. Meanwhile UKMO and GEM keep the jet flatter anyway. 

Curious how GEM seems obsessed with Scandinavian height rises lately. Not an unrealistic proposition mind! In that scenario those in the east would have to hope that the warmer North Sea and generally hotter, less humid (as higher temps encourage lowe humidity) continent than we had early this month reduces the extent of low cloud development.

 

As a set of options to consider, these are a fine set to behold. Not yet had time to check the ensembles to see if any west-shifted highs remain, though.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean looks great for the majority who enjoy very summery weather with predominantly settled and increasingly warm conditions right across the uk but especially southern uk where it becomes very warm / hot for days and days!..lovely stuff.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC decent for Saturday, only 3 days of filth, wed to Fri

[DTHFCJ]

Plenty of warm/very warm/hot members,nice if you like the heat!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z already looks like a belter of a run at T192:

The dry period has been nailed for some time, the heat is uncertain to an extent but getting less uncertain by the day!

[Frosty.]

I'm running out of superlatives, the Ecm 12z is gorgeous, high pressure building in strongly and becoming centred over the uk, the atlantic sent packing as the uk becomes very warm nationwide..and in places...HOT!

[mb018538]

Cracking ECM, 30c+ for sure on those charts. Some home grown heat from that anticyclone too!

[Mike Poole]

ECM at T240:

So we have a MASSIVE high over Northern UK, continental flow for most of England, and a heat pump in that low west of Portugal, what could go wrong?  A question that is becoming increasingly difficult to answer...

I think the answer is it's increasingly likely nothing is going to derail this spell 

Edited June 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Beautiful Ecm 12z charts again this evening..anticyclonic heaven really and temperatures soaring into the very warm / hot category..i.e ... into the 80's F widely i would think..and for some, nearer mid to high 80's..awesome!...I may melt but at least I will melt happy

Edited June 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T240:

So we have a MASSIVE high over Northern UK, continental flow for most of England, and a heat pump in that low west of Portugal, what could go wrong?  A question that is becoming increasingly difficult to answer...

Lots of things the high could end up 250miles west. Other than that it looks pretty blocked and enough evidence for me to book next week off tomorrow.

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lots of things the high could end up 250miles west. Other than that it looks pretty blocked and enough evidence for me to book next week off tomorrow.

I recall July 2013 had a high slightly west like that, didn't prevent 18 consecutive days at 28C or above! 

I guess our east coast friends might be worried about the high drifting too far north. Otherwise it's still looking exceptional. 

[cheese]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T240:

So we have a MASSIVE high over Northern UK, continental flow for most of England, and a heat pump in that low west of Portugal, what could go wrong?  A question that is becoming increasingly difficult to answer...

I think the answer is it's increasingly likely nothing is going to derail this spell 

Really wish that high was a bit further south though.

Edited June 19, 2018 by cheese

[Mike Poole]

The ECM 12z ensemble mean.  Note at T192 the mean high localised to the UK, and by T240, the mean chart has high pressure from the Azores to the UK, but note  that low west of Portugal, it's always there and could prove important.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

18 minutes ago, cheese said:

Really wish that high was a bit further south though.

Wouldn’t worry about it at this stage.

[Mike Poole]

Here's the FIM9 at T240,  this one slower to bring the heat to the UK than some of the others, but the 850 chart shows big heat waiting in the wings to the south:

The low heights west of Portugal clear on this one too.  I'm watching this! 

[SizzlingHeat]

Fantastic ECM 12z mean once again. Solid heights across the entire UK for the entire run with 850s above 10-12c for 5 solid days across most of England and Wales during next week which would suggest several days of 30 degrees is looking likely. Rock solid support across the board for an incredible end to June. 

Mediterranean blue skies for most with light winds and soaring temperatures. UV levels very high also. 

One thing to note, I was looking at the heatwave of 1976 where 35.6c was recorded in Southampton on June 28th. 850s were not above 15c for most of the hot spell and with 15c and above looking a distinct possibility I wouldnt be surprised to see a 35degree or touch higher if some of the output which is showing materialises.

Phenomenal stuff. Bring it on. BBQs, lovely warm evenings, sea swims after work and happy people!

[Singularity]

A fascinating case of temperatures being limited by the sheer strength of the high pressure cell days 9-10 of the ECM run.

I'm sceptical of it being quite that strong, but an easterly type outcome of some sort does seem to have gained support to a significant degree this evening.

With such high 850s, though, I'd still not rule out 30*C being reached at some point in the week - but in the southwest rather than southeast!

Not that such details are worth worrying about at this stage. The day 7-10 pattern could still end up flatter (as in flatter ridge!) and hotter for eastern parts of England, or we could see the HP locate further west with a cooler outcome fir all but the far southwest, or the high could locate more east with instability coming into play; sultry with a risk of thunderstorms.

 

What's really nice, though, is having some fine, very pleasant looking weather looking highly likely for the preceding few days, so that we know we're odds-on for experiencing something to appreciate*, whatever happens next .

 

* when you get the chance (those on holiday in the UK next week... how lucky you are looking to be!).

[Paul]

Can we keep it to discussing the model output in here please. 

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z has a peak temp of 32c given its tendency to underestimate these maxes somewhere could potentially hit 34c if things remained unchanged

35.7c would break the joint record last hit in 1976

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Does anyone know what the long range models are showing for August? It’s about time we had a decent one!

Yes, the Met Office GloSea5 model shows high probability of well above average temperatures over Jul - Sep period:

And for what it's worth the last four CFS runs for July are as follows for Z500 height anomaly,  you can't look at a single run in isolation from this model, so the last four are:

All these would give a decent-ish July.  As to August, the GloSea5 output is promising, but I think it will be a wait and see as I would not trust CFS into the second month.  Hope that helps.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Evening thunder]

31 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Fantastic ECM 12z mean once again. Solid heights across the entire UK for the entire run with 850s above 10-12c for 5 solid days across most of England and Wales during next week which would suggest several days of 30 degrees is looking likely. Rock solid support across the board for an incredible end to June. 

Mediterranean blue skies for most with light winds and soaring temperatures. UV levels very high also. 

One thing to note, I was looking at the heatwave of 1976 where 35.6c was recorded in Southampton on June 28th. 850s were not above 15c for most of the hot spell and with 15c and above looking a distinct possibility I wouldnt be surprised to see a 35degree or touch higher if some of the output which is showing materialises.

Phenomenal stuff. Bring it on. BBQs, lovely warm evenings, sea swims after work and happy people!

Just thought I'd post, I noticed a slight discrepancy with the archive charts for that spell a few weeks ago. On Wetterzentrale, 850's are shown below 15C for that day where Southampton got 35.6C:


 

Yet I remembered them being above 16C, so visited the Netweather Archive, and sure enough:

 

A bit odd but tbh I believe the 2nd one more. I may be wrong as I suppose the extra dry ground could have helped but I don't recall temps being more than 20C above the 850's before, even in dry conditions. I tend to think of a difference around 15C-17C, perhaps 18C tops for sunny dry conditions under high pressure, and I'd probably want to see 850's up around 17C+ to consider the mid 30's.

Just my thoughts though and hardly makes a difference to the output!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, the Met Office GloSea5 model shows high probability of well above average temperatures over Jul - Sep period:

And for what it's worth the last four CFS runs for July are as follows for Z500 height anomaly,  you can't look at a single run in isolation from this model, so the last four are:

All these would give a decent July.  As to August, the GloSea5 output is promising, but I think it will be a wait and see as I would not trust CFS into the second month.  Hope that helps.

If that comes off I think summer 2018 will definitely be one for the books along with 1976, 1995, 2003. Pretty good for a year ending in 8.

[Matthew.]

What a fantastic year of model watching this has been! Hope the ECM is on the money