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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM enemble mean rock solid concerning the Azores ridge over the whole UK:

image.thumb.jpg.8b1aa3eef562262e1016a8aae8917165.jpg

i think we can be pretty certain about a long dry spell.  How warm will depend on where the centre of the high sets up which may change a bit, but probably not too much, in future runs, but better model output across all models at this time of year would be hard to find!   

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Cooment re the anomaly charts noted. They are not infallible but do, in my view, give a more balanced idea of the probable upper air pattern 6-14 days ahead of the time of issue.

The compiled comments and charts Sunday to Today (Tuesday) are shown on the link below

 

net wx 19 june 2018.doc

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM ensembles for weekend after next (D11-D12): flicking through members on weather.us, looks like a split between run of the mill warmth (low 20s) and real heat (low 30s).

The amount heat will depend on how much the orientation of the high allows a southerly input.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean oozes very summery potential..this is great news for Wimbledon and other sporting events as well as uk holidaymakers..dream charts, cross model support for a potentially prolonged spell of very warm / hot weather..?️☀️

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

3F30B093-FCE6-4B12-B8E5-4FB84940616B.thumb.png.895821e0e4ce986649075ff548b98ef8.png

 

while its its very tempting to go into full ramp mode with these amazing charts appearing, worth noting there are still ensemble members that don’t go for the heat yet....so certainly not guaranteed.

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

3F30B093-FCE6-4B12-B8E5-4FB84940616B.thumb.png.895821e0e4ce986649075ff548b98ef8.png

 

while its its very tempting to go into full ramp mode with these amazing charts appearing, worth noting there are still ensemble members that don’t go for the heat yet....so certainly not guaranteed.

Absolutely, look at how naff this week is turning in compared to the forecast a few days back. The real heat is still in FI

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean oozes very summery potential..this is great news for Wimbledon and other sporting events as well as uk holidaymakers..dream charts, cross model support for a potentially prolonged spell of very warm / hot weather..?️☀️

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Looks superb Karl.

Us weather nuts have been treated to some real superb charts this year i mean who will forget the run  up to the Beast from the East and now the above charts that Karl has posted above for the heat lovers.and yes England might get to the knockout stage of the world cup.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

We've certainly been looked after since mid April!

April 2c above average
May 2.1c above average
June currently 2c above average, looking like staying there or going above by the months end....

Everything changed after the SSW, it's like it flipped a switch in the atmosphere and changed the normal parameters. Fascinating what the rest of summer will do, got plenty to live up to.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

In terms of getting the strong, sustained ridge of high pressure in place (let's do that before worrying about how high or not the temps go), the key point to keep an eye on is Sunday;

19Jun18_GFS00z_138_ToWatch.thumb.JPG.11be94b0f1f98808a621c7b0cdf396b0.JPG

At this point, we have a cut-off low west of Iberia and a trough in the N. Atlantic attempting to reach down and interact with it. If this happened, the cut-off low would move N or NNE, the Atlantic trough would strengthen, and we'd see 1-3 increasingly warm/hot days followed by a breakdown.

At the other end of the spectrum, without that trough digging down at all, the ridge would focus further west, much as GFS was going with until recently.

 

At this time, though, there is strong agreement on the optimal middle ground, with the Atlantic trough doing enough to move the ridge east, but a strong jet streak across the N. Atlantic (circled blue) coming along just in time to put an abrupt end to that trough's attempts to reach down to the cut-off low, leaving that low trapped beneath a bridge of high pressure - a classic setup for prolonged settled weather affecting locations N and NE of the low.

I believe the arrival of this handy jet streak be traced back to the westerly wind burst in the tropical Pacific (Tamara may affirm or contradict; she's more intuitively connected with this). Following this, the trade winds look quite variable, so (if my thinking is correct) we'll have to hope that firstly, the WWB does do the trick (still time for that jet streak to become more disrupted an wavy...) and secondly, Nina-like forcing doesn't make a comeback sufficient to force the jet to buckle again only a few days later. GFS has explored that outcome on a few runs over the past couple of days.

 

The heat is certainly a possibility with the cut-off low positioned west of Iberia, feeding the anticyclone a steady flow of hot air from the continent - but should the high focus too far N or NE, this heat may divert more west of the UK - a detail still some way from being resolved when considering the ensemble scatter.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

OK T+300 but at the end (or in between) a potential decent week of heat.

Usual thundery UK breakdown - lets hope its shortlived but some interesting pyrotechnics on offer for the midlands.

ukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.png

ukcapeli.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Wow, just wow..the Ecm 00z just as the 12z last evening shows a nationwide heatwave on the way..fingers crossed!

120_mslp500.png

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168_mslp500.png

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192_mslp500.png

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That Friday chart is insane. 

Pressure ~1025mb and uppers above 15C means 30C possibly from Inverness to London. 

Shades of 2013 rather than the usual lower pressures seen in recent years which cause a humid fest and high cloud when it's that's warm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

204-582UK.GIF?19-6

6z GFS has the first 30c of the year in the London area next Wednesday. Still 8 days away so will no doubt change, but another good run in the bank here.

Also, just checking through the CAPE/LI charts - as you'd expect under a strong anticyclone, no fireworks predicted this time around. Just hot and sunny weather!

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

EC clusters unchanged from yesterday. Very strong heights next week for all, probably maintaining into the following week (though at such long range there are naturally a few alternatives).

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061900_216.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061900_300.

Heatwave remains the best guess at this stage though all depends on how the high forms.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

204-582UK.GIF?19-6

6z GFS has the first 30c of the year in the London area next Wednesday. Still 8 days away so will no doubt change, but another good run in the bank here.

Flaming June alright!

1f321.png?1f525.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Beautiful  Gfs 6z operational with predominantly very warm / hot anticyclonic conditions and even a plume at the end of June / start of July with a risk of thunderstorms..stunning run.:smile:?️?️

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

204-582UK.GIF?19-6

6z GFS has the first 30c of the year in the London area next Wednesday. Still 8 days away so will no doubt change, but another good run in the bank here.

Also, just checking through the CAPE/LI charts - as you'd expect under a strong anticyclone, no fireworks predicted this time around. Just hot and sunny weather!

And as GFS tends to undercook maxes, you could probably add 2 or 3 degrees to that figure.

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5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

And as GFS tends to undercook maxes, you could probably add 2 or 3 degrees to that figure.

i think maxes look reasonable, I think adding 3C is maybe a bit much. Despite the incredible set-up its more a build your own heatwave rather rather the air getting dragged up from north Africa. At the moment I would say the uppers of 15/16C  would deliver 30-32C in the south and quite unusually that build your heat looks like being relatively dry so many not as oppressive as some warmer spells in recent years.   

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, Alderc said:

i think maxes look reasonable, I think adding 3C is maybe a bit much. Despite the incredible set-up its more a build your own heatwave rather rather the air getting dragged up from north Africa. At the moment I would say the uppers of 15/16C  would deliver 30-32C in the south and quite unusually that build your heat looks like being relatively dry so many not as oppressive as some warmer spells in recent years.   

Sometimes the maxes have been out by a lot more than 3C. I’ve seen 25C on GFS charts forecast 6 hours out when in reality 30C was reached.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Definatley Flaming June if this comes off. You will never find better charts than what GFS 00z and 06z showing,. Jet Stream well pushed to the North, TT1000-500 564Dm right over the UK with several days under blue skies and hot sunshine I wont be surprised if we can get 850 uppers touching 20C out of this. Even Scotland could comfortably reach the low 30s as daytime length is at its max.

South Easterners should consider getting their air conditioning working as I wouldn't rule out 37C in the usual hotspots given how bone its been down there  Echos of 1976? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Just now, Djdazzle said:

Sometimes the maxes have been out by a lot more than 3C. I’ve seen 25C on GFS charts forecast 6 hours out when in reality 30C was reached.

Seems to be different errors in different situations. ECM op run maxes have similar issues. The only ones that seem right more than often in a hot spell is the AROME or HIRLAM, and they only go out 2 days!!

Probably best to see model output on temperatures as a guide e.g. 27C = somewhere between 25C and 30C

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Sometimes the maxes have been out by a lot more than 3C. I’ve seen 25C on GFS charts forecast 6 hours out when in reality 30C was reached.

Yes I know we've all seen that. However temps currently progged next week are assumed under continuous sunshine and almost perfect conditions so would expect them to be a little more accurate, the algorithms within the models should take into consideration the dry ground state. To be getting towards 35C you really need uppers of 18-20C IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

Definatley Flaming June if this comes off. You will never find better charts than what GFS 00z and 06z showing,. Jet Stream well pushed to the North, TT1000-500 564Dm right over the UK with several days under blue skies and hot sunshine I wont be surprised if we can get 850 uppers touching 20C out of this. Even Scotland could comfortably reach the low 30s as daytime length is at its max.

South Easterners should consider getting their air conditioning working as I wouldn't rule out 37C in the usual hotspots given how bone its been down there  Echos of 1976? 

 

There's a few ensembles that could do that, but then there always are at this time of year?

I'd say it's just the chances are higher this time round e.g. instead of a 5% chance of 37C within 14 days, I'd give it a 15% chance.

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

There's a few ensembles that could do that, but then there always are at this time of year?

I'd say it's just the chances are higher this time round e.g. instead of a 5% chance of 37C within 14 days, I'd give it a 15% chance.

Yes, lets not forget 37C has only been recorded on 2days accurately in the last 100+ years. Uppers then we about 21-22C. We are some way of that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes I know we've all seen that. However temps currently progged next week are assumed under continuous sunshine and almost perfect conditions so would expect them to be a little more accurate, the algorithms within the models should take into consideration the dry ground state. To be getting towards 35C you really need uppers of 18-20C IMO.

Not suggesting 35C - merely the point that the maxes can be undercooked, regardless of the conditions / synoptics.

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