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Model output discussion 14/04/18

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Posted
Posted

Proper eye candy the ECM tonight. Given dry ground conditions, maximum insolation and relatively mild SSTs those uppers should get close to 32/33c. However still 7/8days away and remember at that range this Thursday looked like being 30c or so, so bundles of caution required and the gfs scenario can’t be ruled out either. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

The best way to describe the ECM mean tonight is stunning

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.thumb.png.8450ab4ec3816f179313bcb9a0ab0bee.pngECMAVGEU12_168_2.thumb.png.0691352454a5ce9774dcee2f0c014cde.pngECMAVGEU12_216_2.thumb.png.666728b7b66b67cfca66f7c70fcc43a5.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.thumb.png.2b04bf45d4f0693d3ef3a34256774bc6.png

More upgrades in the coming days hopefully

:)

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The best way to describe the ECM mean tonight is stunning

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.thumb.png.8450ab4ec3816f179313bcb9a0ab0bee.pngECMAVGEU12_168_2.thumb.png.0691352454a5ce9774dcee2f0c014cde.pngECMAVGEU12_216_2.thumb.png.666728b7b66b67cfca66f7c70fcc43a5.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.thumb.png.2b04bf45d4f0693d3ef3a34256774bc6.png

More upgrades in the coming days hopefully

:)

Let’s just hope it’s not the summer version of “That ECM!”

Good to see it has support from the ensembles.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Some comments about the Gfs 12z not looking so good but the GEFS 12z mean is fantastic for warm / very warm settled conditions with plenty of high pressure / ridging, especially for southern uk..hope things work out for the majority who love summery weather!:smile: 

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Some comments about the Gfs 12z not looking so good but the GEFS 12z mean is fantastic for warm / very warm settled conditions with plenty of high pressure / ridging, especially for southern uk..hope things work out for the majority who love summery weather!:smile: 

Comments around the GFS mainly relate to the post day 10 period when it has been cutting off the warmth and fear of the front load. 

GFSOPEU18_312_1.png

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Posted
Posted (edited)

Well well, gfs this morning really turns on the heat, temps widely into the 30’s during the early part of next week. A classic summer run but good to see HP finally building in the right place. Back to this week and unsurprisingly the models and a few on here completely Under played the amount of cloud being dragged in from the Atlantic. Looks like we’ll need Wednesday push down from the north to clear everything away. June’s sunshine now falling behind average. 

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
Posted

I think this mornings GEM run wins the award for the most 1976esq output. A huge blocking high just to the north and east with the Atlantic in full hibernation mode. 

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CheesepuffScott Accomplished

CheesepuffScott

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted

GFS this morning is heaven. That’s what I like to see. Yes, hopefully the cloud stays at bay

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I think this mornings GEM run wins the award for the most 1976esq output. A huge blocking high just to the north and east with the Atlantic in full hibernation mode. 

It must be good if you are unable to find any negatives!

 

 

 

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The GEFS 00z mean is also Fantastic this morning for prolonged high pressure / azores ridging and warmth..becomes very warm across southern uk..?️☀️:smile:

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Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It must be good if you are unable to find any negatives!

 

 

 

 

It’s not about finding negatives, it’s about being realistic. Take this week, everywhere slated me for suggesting there would be a huge amount of cloud tied up with this ridge, enough said. Caution still needed regarding next week as nothing is yet nailed on although ecm out 144hrs looks pretty good and shaping up to deliver a big plums as it looks pressure will fall over Iberia.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM - heatwave incomingggggggggg!!

good news if you are a sun and heat fan. Bad news if not!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s not about finding negatives, it’s about being realistic. Take this week, everywhere slated me for suggesting there would be a huge amount of cloud tied up with this ridge, enough said. Caution still needed regarding next week as nothing is yet nailed on although ecm out 144hrs looks pretty good and shaping up to deliver a big plums as it looks pressure will fall over Iberia.

I think cloud amounts were always going to be a pain this week although yesterday from mid morning was beautiful here. Cloud expected to break again today.

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Posted
Posted

Well I’m not sure you can get a better summer chart than the ecm 216hr. Temperatures could be 30c into the Scotland 32/33c in the south east. Absolute bank. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Another fantastic 00z from ECM high pressure starting to dominate and next week sees temps beginning to climb

ECMOPEU00_96_2.thumb.png.a11b7711ae129e704cb578c5160aa9c6.pngECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.62f004992d97792ed2cf119b1d5c6602.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.46208ed07d6035811b2aa47894d84c57.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.2b9a3fd6c0fc3fa31a177f43fcb67760.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Those last 2 ecm charts this morning are the best of the summer by a mile! High anchored in the right place, upper low off biscay not spoiling things, temps into the 90s for sure. Wow.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Wow, just wow..the Ecm 00z just as the 12z last evening shows a nationwide heatwave on the way..fingers crossed!

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

240_thick.png

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

The tendency in recent years has been for 24 hour plume events, so if this output verifies we will break that particular issue. Couple with the very dry ground, there is the potential for a very significant hot spell. However, as has been mentioned, we aren’t there yet!

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Thanks to whoever hacked the ECMWF, GFS etc to produce these such fine outputs.

I know to be fair, the outlook in the previous model runs always looked generally High Pressure dominated, but must admit they’re looking particularly good today. The possibility of the High Pressure drifting to the East allowing some very warm air to get sucked up from the South at times. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

A north to northwesterly wind for a few days as the high begins to build by the weekend that will get cut off as the high continues to drift further east, allowing temps to rise easily into the mid 20s for the south maybe a touch higher

UKMOPEU00_72_1.thumb.png.8b03eed54ab5aac0cef71cef46e7bdcc.pngUKMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.64ba21ccd645ac1c3239f024feac4de3.pngUKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.f5a816ff830c54379477c6898a77a49b.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.4eb056224d2f15513ba9e6ec573ae9af.png

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