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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z UK is shocking tonight!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

12z UK is shocking tonight!!

Its certainly putting more emphasis on the Atlantic than either GEM or GFS.

I think it would be OK after 144 but i agre its nowhere near as nice as i was thinking it would be.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think it would be OK after 144

Yes I agree the Ukmo 12z would be much better across southern uk post T+144 hours and let's not ignore the first half of the week ahead which looks very good across the south with very warm and settled conditions..the cooler blip later in the week looks just that..a blip.:) 

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I agree the Ukmo 12z would be much better across southern uk post T+144 hours and let's not ignore the first half of the week ahead which looks very good across the south with very warm and settled conditions..the cooler blip later in the week looks just that..a blip.:) 

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Hope so mate, its been really poor here since mid week , its been windy and cool and today is just a drizzle fest, more like Autumn really.

ukmet 144 has me a little concerned , will nervously await EC now.

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Ouch - 12z output from Ukmo and gfs is poor really. 

Ukmo would deliver some really very cool weather especially given we are starting to enter into high summer, the strength of troughing to our east is clearly causing model discrepancies. The stronger the low the further west low pressure is dragged and the cooler the conditions.

while less bad gfs rapid regresses high pressure to west and the U.K. becomes stuck under a cold pool filled with cloud. Yes it’s dry but not ideal and temperatures take an age to recover. 

We really need that low pressure either much further east or much less intense however there appears to be a reasonable consensus that by the end of the week it could feel more like late April at times..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Och well, summer's over...It was good while it lasted though?:cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Ouch - 12z output from Ukmo and gfs is poor really. 

Ukmo would deliver some really very cool weather especially given we are starting to enter into high summer, the strength of troughing to our east is clearly causing model discrepancies. The stronger the low the further west low pressure is dragged and the cooler the conditions.

while less bad gfs rapid regresses high pressure to west and the U.K. becomes stuck under a cold pool filled with cloud. Yes it’s dry but not ideal and temperatures take an age to recover. 

We really need that low pressure either much further east or much less intense however there appears to be a reasonable consensus that by the end of the week it could feel more like late April at times..

Yes a bit of a step back tonight, that trough/low to the NE is a realy fly in the ointment it seems, although GFS/GEM look much more appealing than UKMET.

Over to ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

GFS 12z, apart from a few days from Thu, is a very good run all the way to end of FI. Temps still low 20s in south even on Friday. How some can say that’s poor is beyond me.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 12z, apart from a few days from Thu, is a very good run all the way to end of FI. Temps still low 20s in south even on Friday. How some can say that’s poor is beyond me.

Ay decent FI, but 3 crappy days Wed to Fri, Sat a bit better on the 12Z, than 00Z

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Another superb GEFS 12z mean longer term with lots of high pressure and warmth, becoming very warm further south and northern uk becomes fine and warm too..very good signs towards the end of June and into early July.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm  really liking the Ecm 12z with an anticyclone building in later in the week when it also starts to warm up again following a cooler day or so and let's not gloss over the first half of the week which becomes very warm further south with plenty of sunshine...it's turning into a superb run!

24_thickuk.png

48_thickuk.png

48_mslp850.png

72_thickuk.png

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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ECM 12z is fortunately much better. One thing to note about the next few days is that the North Atlantic is currently filled with cloud, while ridging of high pressure should ring some of it out there’s no doubt going to be a lot more cloud about Monday-Wednesday than what people appear to be thinking. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z turns into a great run for all..much as the 00z did..lots of positives today!:)

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

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240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

A quick look at what the main models are showing for +144H which is pretty much the extreme end of their reliable modelling abilities....  all in good agreement that the Azores can be expected to build in towards the UK in six days time:

UKMO.                                                            ECM

image.thumb.gif.ad11dc9a2f077bbcccf4a6aaff16f484.gif        image.thumb.gif.b471b8e3eb4da9bf4baefe310e605c08.gif

GFS.                                                                GEM

image.thumb.png.8f1f4f2df5f469191c8a61df32584cff.png        image.thumb.png.2bbb75e2ac50cd8cbb404340e6d7c29a.png

Then a look ahead to +192h for the ones which go out that far:

ECM                                                                 GFS

image.thumb.gif.891acc8dad519accc18faedd2c835392.gif        image.thumb.png.5dc63203000d47433d6e98be34b4f180.png

GEM

image.thumb.png.d7389e59c42321b057f5068157f89142.png

Oh dear!  They all disagree only 48 hours later....    ECM and GFS see the Azores high continuing to dominate our weather but in two completely different positions, whilst the GEM is not so confident and is reintroducing the Atlantic again!  Best to concentrate on the next 5 or 6 days then, and hope that the later evolutions all converge towards the ECM because that's looking very summery indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
37 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Countryfile forecast also looks nothing like the UKMO raw output.

possibly because the met office doesn't do that forecast anymore

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 12z, apart from a few days from Thu, is a very good run all the way to end of FI. Temps still low 20s in south even on Friday. How some can say that’s poor is beyond me.

because people on here aren't happy unless we're dripping like a pot roast.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

because people on here aren't happy unless we're dripping like a pot roast.

Truer words were never spoken

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42 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

because people on here aren't happy unless we're dripping like a pot roast.

This is a weather forum last time I checked, in the depths of winter you’d get nailed on here for bigging up charts that showed average maxes. While I’m sure it’ll be ok, there’s no there’s going to be a lot of cloud so I’m still not sure it’s going to be even as very averagely good as some of the charts are indicating.

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

This is a weather forum last time I checked, in the depths of winter you’d get nailed on here for bigging up charts that showed average maxes. While I’m sure it’ll be ok, there’s no there’s going to be a lot of cloud so I’m still not sure it’s going to be even as very averagely good as some of the charts are indicating.

not going to be a hypocrite; the winter hardcore are just as bad if not worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we pack the tickle tackle in please.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

not going to be a hypocrite; the winter hardcore are just as bad if not worse.

You guys might be better-off moaning in the moaning thread? Not that I never make off-topic posts. Far from it!

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