Model output discussion 14/04/18

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is,once again, excellent.

[northwestsnow]

We can add GEM now to the list of models keeping the UK very dry and increasingly warmer as we head through next weekend..

[Djdazzle]

Come on GFS, pub run special please!

As for the CFS, does anybody really take it seriously? I remember that it gets looked at about a month prior to Christmas Day and within the space of 12 hours, flips from sub zero to sub tropical!

[Frosty.]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is,once again, excellent.

You're absolutely right..the T+240 mean is a cracker..

[draztik]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Come on GFS, pub run special please!

As for the CFS, does anybody really take it seriously? I remember that it gets looked at about a month prior to Christmas Day and within the space of 12 hours, flips from sub zero to sub tropical!

Its taken seriously when it's showing folk exactly what they want to see. 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, draztik said:

Its taken seriously when it's showing folk exactly what they want to see. 

I've never taken the CFS seriously..whatever it shows, in fact..I hardly ever bother looking at it..that's how highly i rate it!!

[J10]

The start of next week is a potentially very cloudy affair for many Western parts, so will be pleased with the High Pressure becoming more widespread towards mid week. 

However, shouldn't complain too much it has been a cracking start to summer and the odd SW dominated blip will always occur. 

[BruenSryan]

To add weight to not taking the CFSv2 that serious. Look at the temperature anomalies the model was showing for July 2013 this time 5 years ago. I don't usually post here but just thought I'd say that. 

Think this afternoon and this evening's model runs are great with the south and southeast being favoured in both Ireland and the UK for earlier in the week then the west is best for the end of the week (if tonight's runs are correct) as in sun and warmth though everywhere will be average to cool. The agreement of the models this evening has been a while coming. 

Edited June 16, 2018 by BruenSryan

[northwestsnow]

Ironically although Exeter have been talking about NW Britain facing unsettled conditions i have a feeling looking at the output this evening that 'west is best' might begin to be the catch phrase as we through next weekend, there is a danger of those being further away from the high, ie eastern areas , catching some unwelcome north sea clag, not sure if its meaningful at this stage..

[northwestsnow]

18z turning into a cracker as the high never really leaves our locale and warmer uppers are slowly being dragged towards the UK ..

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ironically although Exeter have been talking about NW Britain facing unsettled conditions i have a feeling looking at the output this evening that 'west is best' might begin to be the catch phrase as we through next weekend, there is a danger of those being further away from the high, ie eastern areas , catching some unwelcome north sea clag, not sure if its meaningful at this stage..

High pressure looks stronger and the uppers are higher so hoping that any clag is less of an issue.

Yellow grass would be the main result if the 18z came off as modelled.

 

[northwestsnow]

Well 18z turns into a memorable run with some sizzling heat longer term.

Wish i hadn't seen it now as 00z won't be as good as that.

Still, alls well, great for me, as i finish for 2 weeks next friday and it will be fishing and football, really happy this is looking so settled,can't beat the great British oudoors when the weather is nice.

Edited June 16, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Ice Day]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well 18z turns into a memorable run with some sizzling heat longer term.

Wish i hadn't seen it now as 00z won't be as good as that.

Still, alls well, great for me, as i finish for 2 weeks next friday and it will be fishing and football, really happy this is looking so settled,can't beat the great British oudoors when the weather is nice.

One of my few summer posts, but the 18z is a cracker with settled conditions and increasingly warm temps.  Looks a virtual nationwide event as well. If the 00z follow suit then the bbq will be out for its 5th outing of the season

 

[Weather-history]

17 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

The GFS 06z op run was a dry run for most of England and Wales

GFS 0z op run is a dry run even further north its not that wet compared to say the 06z run

Edited June 17, 2018 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Well 18z turns into a memorable run with some sizzling heat longer term.

Wish i hadn't seen it now as 00z won't be as good as that.

Still, alls well, great for me, as i finish for 2 weeks next friday and it will be fishing and football, really happy this is looking so settled,can't beat the great British oudoors when the weather is nice.

00Z not great for summer fans, Thurs to Sat looking very chilly, yuk, as my location prone to Cheshire Gap sea mist

Edited June 17, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z not great for summer fans, Thurs to Sat looking very chilly, yuk, as my location prone to Cheshire Gap sea mist

But you have again singled out the least summery charts? The 00z runs are generally fine sunny dry and warm.

As per EC temp deviation plots which are above average for much of the UK away from the NW for 8 out of the 10 days.

 

Edited June 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[summer blizzard]

As expected that burst of westerlies across the Pacific during the first ten days of June (allowing for some lag) will deliver a more settled outlook as we head into the new month (my own expectation is for the more pronounced ridging to last the first third of July) before probably something more ordinary takes hold in terms of the usual N/S split. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

As expected that burst of westerlies across the Pacific during the first ten days of June (allowing for some lag) will deliver a more settled outlook as we head into the new month (my own expectation is for the more pronounced ridging to last the first third of July) before probably something more ordinary takes hold in terms of the usual N/S split. 

Yes i noticed your post from a week or so ago calling a more settled pattern towards the end of June, good call SB.:)

[Frosty.]

Another superb Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another superb Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term!

Yes Karl, the EC mean remains remains dry warm and sunny , good times!

I wonder if there is a weak signal for scandy heights longer term..

Edited June 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

The June GloSea5 charts are out, and it looks a very similar story to the May output. Big signal for warmer than average, possibly significantly so.  Here's the tertile charts and outer quintile charts for 2m temperature for Europe, over Jul, Aug, Sep:

Edited June 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Karl, the EC mean remains remains dry warm and sunny , good times!

I wonder if there is a weak signal for scandy heights longer term..

Not out of the question on the clusters, especially cluster 2 at T312

With the 582 line over southern areas in all clusters, it looks like a lot of settled weather here as the month ends - and though some 850s look low, I can't believe settled wouldn't mean warm at this time of the year. 

Not a bad story for northern areas too - probably between settled and changeable in this period, rather than unsettled

[northwestsnow]

Excellent GEFS - the dry signal is very strong.

Add to that a cracking Exeter update and alls good.

Yes there will be coolder days, possibly more so in the NW Britain, but overall, when you consider its the UK, no Spain, the outook looks great.

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent GEFS - the dry signal is very strong.

 

Yes it's an exceptionally good extended GEFS 6z mean for those of us hoping for a return of very summery weather with strong azores high / ridge influence, it would become very warm further south and even northern uk would see plenty of fine warm weather..fingers crossed!

Edited June 17, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

The GFS 6z op run is also superb.  Here's the back end stretching the settled spell into July:

The centre of the high moves around but remains close to the UK throughout.