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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
23 hours ago, CreweCold said:

One thing that has been a clear trend recently is that troughing is shown to push further and further S. It's a gradual deterioration with the NW of the UK seeing the most unsettled of the conditions first of all.

In the mid range we see the unsettled weather push across most of the country 

gfs-0-228.png?12

Not dire by any means but a far cry from the glorious May we experienced.

On another note, the CFS (which was so bullish about an extensive mid lat high across the UK) is backing away from the glorious July it once promised

glbz700MonInd1.gif

The UKMO now shows at day 6 the beginning of the break up of the +NAO signature which has promoted the fine weather we have enjoyed, you can see the deeper Greenland troughing begin to dissipate

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Can't grumble at today's UKMO 12z

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.a67d488b151f24f6ba048389da3fe14d.png

Any unsettled weather looks to be just a blip with high pressure looking likely to make a welcome return early next week

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Can't grumble at today's UKMO 12z

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.a67d488b151f24f6ba048389da3fe14d.png

Any unsettled weather looks to be just a blip with high pressure looking likely to make a welcome return early next week

Yes if anything todays output looks the polar opposite of the post you replied too.

Add to that the meto update and its looking really good for late June and early July.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Wimbledon now in range on GFS 384! looks okay on this 12Z for fun I know, Federer opens up on Centre, that time again folks!

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

So not only is the trough-ridge combo sharper but the ridge is now looking stronger too.

That brings about the import of cool air Thu-Fri, but in exchange the ridge has much greater potential longevity than before, which seems like a pretty good deal to me :) .

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

That CFS chart above really looks like it wants a down hill route from July. CFS also going downhill with a poor August aswell. Total turnaround to what it was showing two weeks ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

So not only is the trough-ridge combo sharper but the ridge is now looking stronger too.

That brings about the import of cool air Thu-Fri, but in exchange the ridge has much greater potential longevity than before, which seems like a pretty good deal to me :) .

Careful what you wish for. The ukmo temp profile (850’s) look distinctly chilly - with no guarantee it will export what you’re hoping for thereafter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's some really decent late June weather on the Gfs 12z, not only in the week ahead but the extended outlook too...as these charts show.:smile:

12_216_mslp500.png

12_240_mslp500.png

12_240_uk2mtmp.png

12_264_mslp850.png

12_288_mslp850.png

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_ukthickness850.png

12_312_mslp850.png

12_336_uk2mtmp.png

12_336_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

That CFS chart above really looks like it wants a down hill route from July. CFS also going downhill with a poor August aswell. Total turnaround to what it was showing two weeks ago.

That's the CFS for you: my order for a chocolate teapot is already in the post!:D

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10 minutes ago, draztik said:

Careful what you wish for. The ukmo temp profile (850’s) look distinctly chilly - with no guarantee it will export what you’re hoping for thereafter. 

Indeed, some notably low uppers and a fair bit of cloudy likely, could be chilly at times even in any sun, overnight getting well into single digits away from city centres. Still it could be worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Overnights could be quite humid for a time next week especially so in the south. Complete opposite in the far north with low single figures some

ukmintemp.thumb.png.10ac6657ad3c2560d95d9393e643e4f1.pngukmintemp.png1.thumb.png.f6bbd8c36d13a9aa3bbb219512073b16.pngukmintemp.png2.thumb.png.e180ac48966b7dd7d1a5bac318c972eb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Indeed, some notably low uppers and a fair bit of cloudy likely, could be chilly at times even in any sun, overnight getting well into single digits away from city centres. Still it could be worse.

The nights are at their shortest and it won't feel chilly in the late June sun..you've actually made a decent week ahead, at least for the south sound awful..congratulations!:D:whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Summing up the 10/14 day period 

fridays 12z eps post day 10 = 1 cluster

following run post day 10 = 5 clusters 

Exeter must be putting some stock in the settled cluster Blue, their update today sounds superb.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The nights are at their shortest and it won't feel chilly in the late June sun..you've actually made a decent week ahead, at least for the south sound awful..congratulations!:D:whistling:

Single digits for overnights in Manchester while those in Scotland could be putting on their heating is awful for mid June.

Edited by 38.5*C
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, 38.5*C said:

Single digits for overnights in Manchester while those in Scotland could be putting on their heating is awful.

Yes was about to post, some parts of Scotland may see a ground frost, Wed into thurs, thurs into Fri, dreadful model runs for those 2 days

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The nights are at their shortest and it won't feel chilly in the late June sun..you've actually made a decent week ahead, at least for the south sound awful..congratulations!:D:whistling:

speaking of nights at their shortest

in 7 days from now in London the days will be 13 seconds shorter than what they will be 5 days from now

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Indeed, some notably low uppers and a fair bit of cloudy likely, could be chilly at times even in any sun, overnight getting well into single digits away from city centres. Still it could be worse.

Indeed, could even be the odd snow flurry about if the uppers get low enough... 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
16 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Indeed, could even be the odd snow flurry about if the uppers get low enough... 

Indeed, before the big freeze arrives later next week the Ecm 12z shows some very warm settled weather across southern uk..especially wednesday.

48_thickuk.png

72_thickuk.png

96_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC has a go with an angry Atlantic low at 168 but i suspect the ridge might hang on keeping the UK dry..

And again at 216, could do with the Atlantic calming down a tad, the EC 12z has really fired it up this evening!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC has a go with an angry Atlantic low at 168 but i suspect the ridge might hang on keeping the UK dry..

And again at 216, could do with the Atlantic calming down a tad, the EC 12z has really fired it up this evening!

The Ecm 12z actually looks good, plenty of high pressure / ridging and plenty of warmth further south, just that cooler blip thurs / fri but there should be a decent amount of sunshine for most of the uk..I've seen much worse in late june!:smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

That CFS chart above really looks like it wants a down hill route from July. CFS also going downhill with a poor August aswell. Total turnaround to what it was showing two weeks ago.

Why do people bother with CFS, especially Crewe Cold? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Exactly, waste of time....they are guessing at best. Just wait until the time comes and we will see what unfurls. May and June so far have been pretty good, rest of June not looking bad, so a more than acceptable start to summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Really good looking GEFS 12z mean.. azores ridge domination with a good deal of settled and sunny weather..the south of the uk looks generally warm bar that cooler blip later next week..the warmest weather particularly across southern / southeast england..decent summer weather.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The outlook for the rest of the June looks pretty dry and probably pretty warm once we balance out the warmer/cooler spells, high pressure never looks too far away.

ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?16-0   EDM1-192.GIF?16-0   EDM1-240.GIF?16-0

So the first half of next week looks potentially very warm before a front sinks south east introducing cooler conditions, this is then followed by warmer air running towards the UK with potential signs of something a little more substantial occurring in week two, the operational at day ten looks to be setting up a plume type event which looks possible off the ECM ens at least.

GFS less keen on potentially developing that Euro ridge in week two, instead it keeps a westerly pattern with warmer/cooler conditions though with the jetstream running a fair way north then rainfall again looks pretty limited.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Indeed, could even be the odd snow flurry about if the uppers get low enough... 

Snow was forecast for Ben Nevis during Hector. I recall in about 1987 or so when during an August depression with high winds it was snowing at 2500 ft...

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