Model output discussion 14/04/18

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 looks good to me..

Sun-wed look warm away from the NW of Britain.

*Hope we see the wind die back a bit its annoyingly gusty again today.

Hardly surprising 'annoyingly gusty' as you comment when you look at the Fax chart?

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

Current modelling is refreshingly poor with higher heights finally building north..

 

 

The GEFS 12z mean isn't refreshingly poor! it's actually very good from next week for the southern half of the uk with predominantly settled and warm / very warm conditions thanks to the azores high / ridge..

Edited June 14, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ends in a mess, looks similar to the GEM, here at T240

no Atlantic ridge as per GFS.  I think we are going to need to be patient regarding the evolution after about day 7,  more runs needed.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z looks refreshingly good for southern uk through the first half of next week with plenty of warm sunny weather, especially further south where it could become very warm.

[cheese]

30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean isn't refreshingly poor! it's actually very good from next week for the southern half of the uk with predominantly settled and warm / very warm conditions thanks to the azores high / ridge..

Looks good - low 20s for here. Can't complain. No North Sea murk either

Edited June 14, 2018 by cheese

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, cheese said:

Looks good - low 20s for here. Can't complain. No North Sea murk either

Agreed, away from scotland it's looking good..perhaps very good for southern counties for most of next week but did you have to show the whole post again, it just wastes page space.

Ta

Edited June 14, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The further south you go, the better the Ecm 12z looks next week with high pressure / ridging  bringing plenty of fine sunny and warm weather, even some potential very warm / hot weather through mid / late next week, lasting longest across the south / southeast.

[Mike Poole]

The ECM ensemble mean at T240 is best described as virtually a total absence of knowledge:

Let's see what tomorrow's runs bring.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The ECM ensemble mean at T240 is best described as virtually a total absence of knowledge:

Let's see what tomorrow's runs bring.

Indeed Mike but there's some nice azores ridging before then..next week looks potentially very decent further south with a good deal of dry, warm and in places very warm and sunny weather.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed Mike but there's some nice azores ridging before then..next week looks potentially very decent further south with a good deal of dry, warm and in places very warm and sunny weather.

Yep, Frosty, I think a decent period days 5-9 looks good from most of the model output, with the caveat that this will mostly favour the south, thereafter all is uncertain at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean looks OK to me, no heatwave showing, but no washout either.

Certainly looks warm for many next week .. moreso the further South one heads.

[Djdazzle]

Hopefully GFS 18z FI doesn’t verify because it’s awful.

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Hopefully GFS 18z FI doesn’t verify because it’s awful.

Agreed.

But it is FI so i wont lose any sleep over it.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Hopefully GFS 18z FI doesn’t verify because it’s awful.

Its just an outlier. Been seeing terrible FI popping up now and then since April which has never really verified.

[mb018538]

Not a bad set of runs at all this morning - the potential for some pretty warm weather into the middle of next week. I'm guessing a few places in the SE may see a 26/27c.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png

Hard to really know what's going to happen with so much ensemble spread. There's already a fair bit of disagreement at day 3/4, which obviously then leads to a dogs dinner of outcomes thereafter. Looks like a day by day approach is going to be needed, plenty of ways this could still go.

[mb018538]

ECM looks a bit dicey at the end, mid Atlantic ridge and a northerly setting in....hoping those lows push more to the NE and the azores high hold on.

GFS evolution looks more preferable - I don't like how the ECM develops the low NE, then as it gets towards the UK it just goes straight to the east and causes problems. GFS keeps it largely out of the way.

Edited June 15, 2018 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

Looks pretty benign after mid week with a bit of a stalemate between the azores high and the Atlantic trying to move towards the UK.

Hoping the background signals are maintained and we see a more 'ridgy' outcome longer term although there is still lingering doubts- Exeter have manintained their thoughts of a settled end to June,i'm a bit sceptical at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

Yet again the mean looks far better than the EC op.

Its been that way for days on end.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yet again the mean looks far better than the EC op.

Its been that way for days on end.

Agreed, in fact, this morning's Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks better than last night's 12z mean.

Expect a predominantly settled and warm azores high / ridge dominated last third of June across at least the southern third of the uk IF this is anywhere close..better the further south you are.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

The mean is ok, but there is a definite trend (even on the mean charts) for the high to start pulling back west towards day 7-10. So no heat wave looking likely, with a chance of those pesky lows having some influence. I'm hoping the lows align slightly better to stop the high retreating.

[Guest]

I get the feeling we are getting to a critical day or two in the modelling stakes which will ultimately dictate the weather the remainder of the June. With the first half of June daily max averaging 21.9C at Bournemouth airport (2.5C up on the LTA) its clearly been a consistently warm start to summer here, looks as though that average will be maintained throughout the middle of next week as well but the big question is will the Azores ridging be a temporary 3-4days affair? Seems as thought that is the favorite solution currently with another unsettled spell following into next weekend. However I just wonder weather the ridging might actually be a touch more pokey than currently forecast and break away from the main Azores allowing the jet to buckle somewhat in the mid Atlantic and allow something a little more southerly to develop - just a hunch but keep an eye out for this solution......

[Andy Bown]

22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I get the feeling we are getting to a critical day or two in the modelling stakes which will ultimately dictate the weather the remainder of the June.

Surely the weather dictates the models!?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Andy Bown said:

Surely the weather dictates the models!?

I meant the patterns/scenarios generated will likely be those that happening in actuality for the remainder of the month, it would be easily to slip into a troughing pattern which inevitably gets stuck over the UK for a minimum of 5-10days, was just saying I think that won't happen and the models really haven't a grip of conditions past the middle of next week.

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I meant the patterns/scenarios generated will likely be those that happening in actuality for the remainder of the month, it would be easily to slip into a troughing pattern which inevitably gets stuck over the UK for a minimum of 5-10days, was just saying I think that won't happen and the models really haven't a grip of conditions past the middle of next week.

This is sadly true, low pressures can get stuck with a slow jet stream not shifting them away. Let's hope we don't get left in that position.

[mushymanrob]

38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I meant the patterns/scenarios generated will likely be those that happening in actuality for the remainder of the month, it would be easily to slip into a troughing pattern which inevitably gets stuck over the UK for a minimum of 5-10days, was just saying I think that won't happen and the models really haven't a grip of conditions past the middle of next week.

i wouldnt worry, the anomaly charts dont suggest much troughing  (over us) over the next 2 weeks as pressure is predicted to be on the +ive side of neutral.

a lot of fairly decent 'normal' summers weather to see june out, mainly dry too away from the northern half of the country. theres no washout , nor any heatwave, just a lot of pleasant warm dry summery weather. cant be bad, unless youre in the northern half of the uk of course.

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2018 by mushymanrob