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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
6 hours ago, Alderc said:

Again there is no moaning, only my interpretation of what I see in the models, which is yes a primarily dry set of conditions, especially down here, however emphasis will likely be on a notably amount of cloud - or infill. GFS did a pretty good job with its cloud predictions of the grotty/clag coming in from the east over the past week or two so have little reason to doubt it next week currently. Temps about average. 

Recent history would dictate that this evolving pattern is flattened out somewhat compared to the forecast 6-10 days out, models have over egged the north east extension of the ridging from Az highs in the 6-10day range for years and compared to the forecast 24-36hrs ago this is clearly the case. In 24-48hrs time I'm sure the scenario will have changed or maybe settled into status quo. History suggests to me there is something like a 25/35/40 weighting with 25% being increased ridging, & 40% becoming more unsettled on how this will evolve next week. Just my thoughts.

I agree that in many recent years since 2006, there’s often been a flatter outcome than initially modelled. However, this year isn’t at all similar with no screaming jet running across S England/N France. So we are likely to see some decent weather in between unsettled snaps. Plus infill tends to affect inland more than the coast, so your area could do very well.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well this is really great from the GEFS 12z mean longer term..even better than the 6z charts i posted earlier, the azores high really flexing it's muscles here. The last third of June could be fine and warm across most of the uk, especially the southern half if this is anywhere close!☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
6 hours ago, Alderc said:

Again there is no moaning, only my interpretation of what I see in the models, which is yes a primarily dry set of conditions, especially down here, however emphasis will likely be on a notably amount of cloud - or infill. GFS did a pretty good job with its cloud predictions of the grotty/clag coming in from the east over the past week or two so have little reason to doubt it next week currently. Temps about average. 

Recent history would dictate that this evolving pattern is flattened out somewhat compared to the forecast 6-10 days out, models have over egged the north east extension of the ridging from Az highs in the 6-10day range for years and compared to the forecast 24-36hrs ago this is clearly the case. In 24-48hrs time I'm sure the scenario will have changed or maybe settled into status quo. History suggests to me there is something like a 25/35/40 weighting with 25% being increased ridging, & 40% becoming more unsettled on how this will evolve next week. Just my thoughts.

Of course though tropical maritime westerlies will differ greatly from north easterlies in regards to how far cloud can push in. At this time of year I would suspect that in milder interludes cloud cover will be minimal across central and eastern areas which would allow temperatures to rise into the mid-twenties quite comfortably. Monday and Tuesday next week look good for this though by Tuesday a weak front will be pushing south east.

126-582UK.GIF?13-12   150-582UK.GIF?13-12

Monday in particular shows how well areas east of the Welsh mountains/Cumbria/Highlands can do off a quite mundame set up.

The ECM shows 850s pushing close to +15C so potentially getting close to 80F and probably feeling pretty humid as well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Just to complete the 12z ops, GEM at T192 very much along the line of the GEFS suite:

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The high declines thereafter.

ECM looks so different with a slack pressure close to UK (T240), I'm sceptical until I see it backed up by other runs:

image.thumb.jpg.98b1d3fa4eeec5bb1fcb18c886e7e092.jpg

Took 4 edits to get these pictures to behave 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Next Wednesday looks potentially hot across southern uk on the Ecm 12z..I love my snow & frost in winter but I also love summer heat, hopefully plenty more charts like this in the next 3 months!?️☀️

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Next Wednesday looks potentially hot across southern uk on the Ecm 12z..I love my snow & frost in winter but I also love summer heat, hopefully plenty more charts like this in the next 3 months!?️☀️

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What sort of ground temps would a 15/16C isotherm produce this time of the year?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, CheesepuffScott said:

What sort of ground temps would a 15/16C isotherm produce this time of the year?

Close to 30c 86f if there was plenty of sunshine.:smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A more typical synoptical outlook for the foreseeable - something we haven't been able to say for quite a few weeks. A persistant westerly airstream on the way, with the azores high nosing into SE parts and the jet aligned SW-NE to our north west, though storm Hector is quite abnormal for mid June. Wettest cloudiest and coolest conditions reserved for the NW, which hasn't really been the case for a long while, drier warmest and sunniest conditions in the SE. Pulses of warm uppers invading SE quarter perhaps raising temps into mid 20's possibly for a 24 hr window.

There are marked differences between ECM and GFS though at the 144 hr timeframe, ECM keen to keep stronger heights ridging north towards Greenland, GFS maintains more of a milder SW flow. 

We are approaching the summer solstice, which in my view marks the start of true summer, weatherwise, when the northern hemisphere begins to settle into its predominant summer base state - lasting often well into September. The position and strength of the jetstream is the crucial factor, and emerging southerly tracking jet at this time of year often bodes poorly, whereas one maintained on a northerly path, bodes better for at least some settled warm weather at times. High pressure overhead or to the NE is the synoptic you really want to see. This year it looks like the second option, northerly positioned jet, but with enough vigour to prevent predominantly sustained settled weather - well we've had weeks of that already, so it would be a tall order to see similar weather hold sway for another 3 months. This isn't me forecasting a poor summer without any settled weather of any significant length, more that I expect unsettled spells at times, these doing battle with settled weather initially and actually losing the battle, but gradually winning it as we move into the second half - again very normal - a summer that gradually performs less well for settled conditions (note I mention settled conditions, not necessarily warm, indeed plume events could become more common in the second half meaning the highest temps more likely second half, but settled conditions shortlived).

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z mean, ridge looks strongest at T192, lessening at T240, has some consistency with earlier output re the uncertainties from day 8 onwards, I guess, charts:

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South faring better on current output.

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42 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

What sort of ground temps would a 15/16C isotherm produce this time of the year?

Under ideal conditions 31-33c, however as we’ve seen recently uppers of 14c with bundles of clag saw many areas stay below 20c. That chart is probably a 25-27c in the far south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Mike beat me to it again..you have to be quick on the draw in here sometimes!:D

In a nutshell, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean trend to build in the azores high / ridge is very much alive and well as far as southern uk is concerned with some fine and warm weather developing next week across most of england and wales, hopefully the signal will strengthen on subsequent runs to include northern uk in the good weather too!:smile:

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EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

The current GFS run in the furthest reaches of possibility shows the Azores high gradually filling until it covers the entire Atlantic from one side to the other - quite extraordinary....

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I am not too sure exactly what this evolution would mean for the UK though but it would have to be better than a string of Atlantic lows screaming in from the west one after the other.  Is it possible that we can hope for a long, settled spell to take us well into mid-summer?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

cloud fest sure of it, NW wind and high pressure, 16 degrees away from S/SE, don't be fooled by red colours

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

Not having looked through the charts for nearly 6 weeks now (been enjoying the weather for the most part) I thought I would have a look at the output for the first time as we approach the summer solstice. Next week seems to be looking rather reasonable in the south, with temps in the low twenties. Although it seems that high pressure will fail to succeed in the medium term at least with a succession of lows skirting the north of the country thanks to a relatively strong jet stream. The high pressure to the south weakens any southerly tracking fronts so it looks pretty cloudy for a lot of the time across the majority of the country for next week during the associated warm and cold fronts crossing west to east. It appears any brighter weather is likely for the eastern and southern eastern side with a lot of low cloud across the west and north. Muggy, sticky nights for some during next week with a TM airmass on a west to south west wind. Unless the high makes more progress in shunting the jet further north, the abundance of nuisance cloud will no doubt be relatively prevalent I would imagine in this setup....however very little rain in the south at all during the next 10 days or 2 weeks it would seem. Into July, its anybody's guess....something akin to the 12z gfs control one would do very nicely...and its not without support on the ensembles either!

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Mike beat me to it again..you have to be quick on the draw in here sometimes!:D

In a nutshell, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean trend to build in the azores high / ridge is very much alive and well as far as southern uk is concerned with some fine and warm weather developing next week across most of england and wales, hopefully the signal will strengthen on subsequent runs to include northern uk in the good weather too!:smile:

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Trailing fronts and a lot of cloud for many I would imagine with the jet rolling over the high. Brightest and warmest conditions indeed for the south and east. Perhaps low twenties for some which would be pleasantly warm even with the cloud.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Back end of the weekend into early next week looks settled, dry and increasingly warmer if UKMO is to be believed.

GFS none to shabby either way much of the above, esp for England and Wales.

UKMO at 144 is very warm for the south i would imagine mid 20s is achievable with the uppers moving up from Portugal.

Doesn't look particularly locked in but another 3 to 4 days of warm weather from sunday for many..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Will add its looking brill for people across much of the UK on monday for the England game, starts at 19:00 here so i would guess temps still in the low 20s for those wanting to watch the game outdoors at a barby etc ..

Hopefully EC will follow a similar script- raw data for Manchester on monday is 20 and light cloud, London sunny spells and 23, i suspect both will go up a couple of degrees before then.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes ECM concurs that sun/mon/tues will be warm dry and increasingly sunnier the further south you head, bit of a north south split which will probably become more apparent from mid week onwards, further on i would like EC to drop its hints of northern blocking ..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

edit EC looks warm to hot by 144 hrs as air sourced from way to the South west brings some very warm uppers across the UK.

Lovely stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

edit EC looks warm to hot by 144 hrs as air sourced from way to the South west brings some very warm uppers across the UK.

Lovely stuff.

Although it finds a way of ruining things later in the run. However I’m not placing much credence in that as things seems to be improving in the medium term across the  models which will affect the later evolution.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The anomaly charts to me suggest a NW-SE split, warmer and more settled on average the further SE one live. Less settled the further NW and fairly changeable. I cannot see anything in the next 2 weeks to suggest any major upper ridge development to give a return to the weather just leaving many areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061312_240.

At D10, EC clusters still much more positive on ridging towards the UK (about 70% last night) compared with the op run (in a cluster at around 30%).

I'm more or less in agreement with John Holmes above, in that I don't think ridging will ever establish itself over the UK for any great period before the month end, but I still think the ECM op runs of late are on the pessimistic side of the potential outcomes. 

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