Model output discussion 14/04/18

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Have the seen the cloud dragged into the ridge? Clearly not.

The "cloud" forecasts have been out 12-24 hours this week.. now you are looking at over 5 days away and predicting cloud amounts lol! That's as bad as will it snow.. 

Its Intresting how the GFS always loves to over do it this week was meant to be really unsettled across the board and thus far in the south its been very summery and today is no exception. Okay some cloud yesterday.. 

Yesterday's ukmo and ecm showing something of a smiliar setup is good news... One would assume that as per usual the GFS is blowing the lows up.. 

Granted it has done well with the low tomorrow but looking over the high RES models this morning it looks like barley any rain makes it into the south.. 

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Is the Ukmo any better? Secondary low south of Greenland ready to slide eastwards and squeeze out high pressure. Clear deterioration. Gfs ensembles clearly show this as well. I’ll stand by my post, nothing to suggest anything warm/hot and sunny in the reliable timeframe.

Seriously, you are relentless aren't you. I'm sure if we had a repeat of 1976 style charts you would find the negative in them. The ECM appears to be taking longer to build the Azores in than the GFS but could turn out very decent for the south nevertheless. And dry for many in the southern half of the UK which is something we can't always guarantee even in June.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

The "cloud" forecasts have been out 12-24 hours this week.. now you are looking at over 5 days away and predicting cloud amounts lol! That's as bad as will it snow.. 

Its Intresting how the GFS always loves to over do it this week was meant to be really unsettled across the board and thus far in the south its been very summery and today is no exception. Okay some cloud yesterday.. 

Yesterday's ukmo and ecm showing something of a smiliar setup is good news... One would assume that as per usual the GFS is blowing the lows up.. 

Granted it has done well with the low tomorrow but looking over the high RES models this morning it looks like barley any rain makes it into the south.. 

It stands to reason that there will be a lot of cloud with a fairly moist airmass moving over a cool North Atlantic.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

EC a little bit of a backtrack on yesterdays runs- still looks good for the south but a little underwhelming for north of Birmingham i would suspect.

192 looks a bit grim but hopefully the azores high can move in thereafter.

[Frosty.]

I notice the GEFS 00z mean looks very good longer term, as it has on recent days..no downgrade that I can see. The azores high ridges in next week, especially across southern uk with increasingly settled and warmer weather which continues into the following week.

Edited June 13, 2018 by Frosty.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Seriously, you are relentless aren't you. I'm sure if we had a repeat of 1976 style charts you would find the negative in them. The ECM appears to be taking longer to build the Azores in than the GFS but could turn out very decent for the south nevertheless. And dry for many in the southern half of the UK which is something we can't always guarantee even in June.

It’s not about being relentless, it’s more over enthusiasm from other people calling various outputs ‘fantastic’, ‘great’ when in reality they show absolutely standard summer weather with NW/SE split and temps mid teens to 20-22c in the south east. I’m not being negative just realistic.

[mb018538]

Another spoiler low being chucked into the mix at 144-192 hours which Is preventing a nice build of the Azores high. It just doesn’t look like it’s going to get the push it needs to move over the UK, and perhaps be kept at arms length by those pesky low pressure systems. Not too bad overall though, could be worse.

[Djdazzle]

ECM never gets the Azores high close enough. That seems to have been a feature of summers in recent years. Could change though.

[johnholmes]

comparing Sunday to Tuesday charts

 

net wx wed 13 june 2018 500mb anomaly charts comparison.doc

[Frosty.]

Some knee jerk reactions this morning..the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good again for a high pressure build from the azores during next week with the south looking increasingly fine and warm...the GEFS 00z mean indicates the same!

[fujita5]

Looking reasonably good for the south with any unsettled conditions becoming increasingly confined to the north.  As several have mentioned it's standard British summer fayre.  Personally I would prefer summer to be dominated by high pressure to the south or SW as it gives nice clear skies and lower humidity for much of the time IMBY, it's been pretty awful recently with the north sea cloud.  

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Some knee jerk reactions this morning..the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good again for a high pressure build from the azores during next week with the south looking increasingly fine and warm...the GEFS 00z mean indicates the same!

Looking at weather.us, ECM op has less than 10% support amongst its ensembles from T168 onwards. Aside the op, there really is no change in the D7-D10 synopsis this morning.

The slightly flatter picture between D5 and D6 is fairly typical of what op runs have done for years in summer, but I'd be surprised to see the D7-D10 get flattened much more, ridging looks much stronger across the board for this period; ECM this morning is worst case scenario.

[Guest]

GFS 06Z rolling out, looks as though a continuing trend of a much less robust ridge from the AZ high. To be honest its just a bulge of less unsettled conditions for couple of days. 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 06Z rolling out, looks as though a continuing trend of a much less robust ridge from the AZ high. To be honest its just a bulge of less unsettled conditions for couple of days. 

No need to worry: the next few days' runs will no doubt come up with myriad different trends...Meanwhile, the weather will just get on with being the weather?

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 06Z rolling out, looks as though a continuing trend of a much less robust ridge from the AZ high. To be honest its just a bulge of less unsettled conditions for couple of days. 

But GFS shows a mainly dry warm and at times sunny week across much of England and wales next week with temps generally around 20-22 degrees.

Hardly a disaster surely ? Granted it does look cooler and more unsettled the further north west you head.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

comparing Sunday to Tuesday charts

 

net wx wed 13 june 2018 500mb anomaly charts comparison.doc

yes, the anoms appear to be suggesting the azores high becoming a much more influential player, ridging closer, and providing a lot of fine summery weather for the south at least, with the worst conditions as usual in the northwest.

maybe no heatwave just yet, but a lot of pleasant weather in between weakening systems . looking pretty dry to for most of us away from the northwest.

itll be interesting to watch this evolution further, will the azh sit to our west? or will it displace or give birth to a seperate ridge that will bring some heat?.. either way the outlook isnt bad away from the northwest and pretty promising id have thought.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But GFS shows a mainly dry warm and at times sunny week across much of England and wales next week with temps generally around 20-22 degrees.

Hardly a disaster surely ? Granted it does look cooler and more unsettled the further north west you head.

I could understand the moaning if he was in scotland but he's in Bournemouth.much closer to the azores high / ridge influence with largely fine warm weather!

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I could understand the moaning if he was in scotland but he's in Bournemouth.much closer to the azores high / ridge influence with largely fine warm weather!

Again there is no moaning, only my interpretation of what I see in the models, which is yes a primarily dry set of conditions, especially down here, however emphasis will likely be on a notably amount of cloud - or infill. GFS did a pretty good job with its cloud predictions of the grotty/clag coming in from the east over the past week or two so have little reason to doubt it next week currently. Temps about average. 

Recent history would dictate that this evolving pattern is flattened out somewhat compared to the forecast 6-10 days out, models have over egged the north east extension of the ridging from Az highs in the 6-10day range for years and compared to the forecast 24-36hrs ago this is clearly the case. In 24-48hrs time I'm sure the scenario will have changed or maybe settled into status quo. History suggests to me there is something like a 25/35/40 weighting with 25% being increased ridging, & 40% becoming more unsettled on how this will evolve next week. Just my thoughts.

[gottolovethisweather]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Some knee jerk reactions this morning..the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good again for a high pressure build from the azores during next week with the south looking increasingly fine and warm...the GEFS 00z mean indicates the same!

4

Looking increasingly fine and warm where cloud cover dissipates, .@Frosty. As far as I know, this is what the backbiting and snide remarks revolve around (not from you personally as you're above all that). Past history and over numerous occasions in recent weeks, it has remained cloudy, murky or of a similar description and cool for most of the day. Which of course, contrasts deeply with what was actually forecast for a specific location, i.e. sunny and warm. I have travelled widely in southern England during this timeframe for my job and the forecast was a bust on numerous occasions. Don't take the model outputs as SAID, some forecasts WILL be wide off the mark, yet most will hopefully get the dry, sunny and warm weather they deserve. Be careful out and about in Storm Hector tomorrow and overnight, people. 

Edited June 13, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

But GFS shows a mainly dry warm and at times sunny week across much of England and wales next week with temps generally around 20-22 degrees.

Hardly a disaster surely ? Granted it does look cooler and more unsettled the further north west you head.

22 degrees? Lovely. Perfect tee shirt weather . Just what we need for Sumner.

[Frosty.]

An increasingly decent GEFS 6z mean I think most will agree, at least for southern uk thanks to the azores high / ridge with predominantly fine and warm weather during late june.

Edited June 13, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

12z another run where the AH never quite makes it, yet there seems nothing synoptically that would prevent it ridging.

[Singularity]

GFS is just showing its low-GLAAM bias in the longer-term, forcing the Azores High to stay retracted to the west.

Arguably, one should in their mind's eye correct the position increasingly far east as you go forward from day 8. That may be over-simplistic in approach though!

 

In the much shorter term, LP to the east is giving the models a real headache, with the position varying within a the area I've circled in blue. This majorly affects how well the AH can ridge in during Mon-Wed with some fine weather chances across southern parts.

[Man With Beard]

1030mb mean high well into the UK on the GEFS at T204. 

That's not going to flatten easily. 

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

1030mb mean high well into the UK on the GEFS at T204. 

That's not going to flatten easily. 

Yes, to put a bit more meat on that, here's the probability of pressure >1030 from GEFS at T192.  

This is a promising position from the ensemble at day 8, more runs needed but I think this builds on the optimism from yesterday for some decent summer weather towards the end of the month.

Edited June 13, 2018 by Mike Poole