Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This claim is often made on here but whenever I check the verification statistics, it never seems to be really borne out.  The differences between the 4 runs at day 5 are not statistically significant, I would suggest. 

I couldn't agree more, Mike.

IMO, the 'Pub Run' argument is barely more credible than the Xmas-New Year lack-of-balloon-data hypothesis...In that, should one filter out the run-to-run amateur dramatics, the overall model-trends tend to 'overwrite' much of the short-term variations, anyway?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z is looking good next week across southern uk with plenty of high pressure / ridging bringing predominantly fine and warm conditions, further north is more changeable and cooler..As far as next week is concerned, I think this is better than the 6z further south. Beyond that, there's a cooler unsettled blip which is soon followed by high pressure and warmth, again especially across england and wales and then the run ends warm and humid further south with thundery showers.  

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a north / south split during the next few weeks with the north, specifically scotland staying in a generally cooler changeable / unsettled north atlantic airflow whereas further south there is plenty of azores high / ridge influence after this week and warmer too with predominantly fine conditions with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells with temperatures on most days into the low 20's celsius, occasionally closer to mid 20's c across the s / se.

Edited June 12, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM looks like it finally makes the grade.  Last few runs have disappointed in the final couple of frames, but this one pushes the high over the UK at T216:

Power to add at T240, just a little increase in optimism from me tonight! 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM looks like it finally makes the grade.  Last few runs have disappointed in the final couple of frames, but this one pushes the high over the UK at T216:

Power to add at T240, just a little increase in optimism from me tonight! 

Yes mike it's great to see an Ecm operational looking much better towards the end, looking forward to the mean which has been looking more settled than the ops recently..there's lots to like about this evening's run after this week..at least for england and wales..next tuesday looks potentially very warm across southern uk.

[mb018538]

Great looking ecm, high generally centred out to the west, but pretty settled and feeling nice in any sun. One to bank in the decent category!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very poor day though constantly being modeled for this Saturday, harsh as many will have summer fetes, bairns parties etc

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2018061212/UW96-21.GIFhttps://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018061212/gfs-0-96.png?12?12http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018061212/ECM1-96.GIF

Edited June 12, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Very poor day though constantly being modeled for this Saturday, harsh as many will have summer fetes, bairns parties etc

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2018061212/UW96-21.GIFhttps://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018061212/gfs-0-96.png?12?12http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018061212/ECM1-96.GIF

Yes some quite heavy and prolonged showers being modeled for many areas at some point during the day. Western areas notably cool as well.

As you say plenty planned for the day no doubt; a couple of friends at work have been asking me about the weather and I've told them to keep a brolly handy!

Edited June 12, 2018 by Reverse Zonality

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ensemble mean is supporting the op run, seemingly quite emphatically.  So we've high pressure building on op runs and ensembles, a very favourable Met Office contingency planners forecast, optimism from @Tamara earlier on the background signals.  Slam dunk!    

 

[Frosty.]

Mike beat me to it...but yes another very good Ecm 12z ensemble mean longer term with the azores high ridging in nicely which followed a very good operational too!...promising trend towards a return of summery weather..fingers crossed!

Edited June 12, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z ensemble mean is supporting the op run, seemingly quite emphatically.  So we've high pressure building on op runs and ensembles, a very favourable Met Office contingency planners forecast, optimism from @Tamara earlier on the background signals.  Slam dunk!    

 

1030mb approaching the south, my marker of confidence in high pressure location. Starting to look quite good for the end of the month! 

[northwestsnow]

FABULOUS EC and EC mean this evening..

The azores high is on the move, pretty much as Tamara suggested a few days ago.

[draztik]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

FABULOUS EC and EC mean this evening..

The azores high is on the move, pretty much as Tamara suggested a few days ago.

Yes. but nothing hot being forecast, whatsoever. If anything, we'll see a lot of cloud, as the high is predominantly to our west. Perfect conditions, for those that don't like it too warm. Yr.no, reinforces this, with raw ec data showing temps of 19-23C for London out to day 10.

all pretty standard fare. 

Edited June 12, 2018 by draztik

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, draztik said:

Yes. but nothing hot being forecast, whatsoever. If anything, we'll see a lot of cloud, as the high is predominantly to our west. Perfect conditions, for those that don't like it too warm. Yr.no, reinforces this, with raw ec data showing temps of 19-23C for London out to day 10.

all pretty standard fare. 

Completely agree, absolutely nothing in the output to suggest anything hot and nothing to get excited about. Would like getting excited in winter over maxes of 7 or 8c when wanting snow.

[Djdazzle]

GFS 18z is a bore fest. Cool and cloudy westerly winds for days on end while the Azores HP sits out west. What a waste!

All those who wished for a pattern change would be getting more crud, this time from the west.

[northwestsnow]

39 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 18z is a bore fest. Cool and cloudy westerly winds for days on end while the Azores HP sits out west. What a waste!

All those who wished for a pattern change would be getting more crud, this time from the west.

Hang on you are assuming the 18z will verify.

Lets wait a little while before writing obituries..

[cheeky_monkey]

looking scorchio here next week 

[Guest]

Gfs 00z slightly better on the surface of last nights run however closer inspection shows a mass of cloud caught being up, over and on to the U.K. through the majority of next - sigh......

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Gfs 00z slightly better on the surface of last nights run however closer inspection shows a mass of cloud caught being up, over and on to the U.K. through the majority of next - sigh......

Followed by an unsettled end. Zero sign of anything hot / sunny imo. 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Followed by an unsettled end. Zero sign of anything hot / sunny imo. 

Again , you are using GFS as your forecasting tool, there are others models/data/ensembles , UKMO looks better primed than GFS 144 to my eye so i wouldn't be suprised to see another nice ECM this morning.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Again , you are using GFS as your forecasting tool, there are others models/data/ensembles , UKMO looks better primed than GFS 144 to my eye so i wouldn't be suprised to see another nice ECM this morning.

To also add the GFS is only bad for Northern areas further south next week especially royal ascot looks very nice 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Again , you are using GFS as your forecasting tool, there are others models/data/ensembles , UKMO looks better primed than GFS 144 to my eye so i wouldn't be suprised to see another nice ECM this morning.

Is the Ukmo any better? Secondary low south of Greenland ready to slide eastwards and squeeze out high pressure. Clear deterioration. Gfs ensembles clearly show this as well. I’ll stand by my post, nothing to suggest anything warm/hot and sunny in the reliable timeframe.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

To also add the GFS is only bad for Northern areas further south next week especially royal ascot looks very nice 

Have the seen the cloud dragged into the ridge? Clearly not.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Is the Ukmo any better? Secondary low south of Greenland ready to slide eastwards and squeeze out high pressure. Clear deterioration. Gfs ensembles clearly show this as well. I’ll stand by my post, nothing to suggest anything warm/hot and sunny in the reliable timeframe.

Well its all about opinions, i feel UKMO looks better at 144 this morning than GFS.

ECM coming out , lets see what it says .

Looks a bit complicated at 144, not entirely sure where it goes from there being honest..

Looks OK the further south you head, i would imagine quite a marked temp difference north to south.

Edited June 13, 2018 by northwestsnow

[johnholmes]

Go over to the shorter term for the usual first class overview by knocker