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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z isn't bad at all for southern uk during the next few weeks with plenty of high pressure / ridging bringing predominantly fine and pleasantly warm weather next week and further ahead too. So although the jetstream will click into gear through the second half of this week for the first time in ages with a more changeable / unsettled and cooler atlantic regime..it looks like northern uk will be most affected but even the north would see some fine spells too.

12_60_250mbjet.png

12_192_mslp500.png

12_288_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a gradual change back to warmer largely settled weather during the course of next week and beyond, especially for england and wales with the azores high / ridge becoming very influentiall!:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Decent looking ecm for sure; Azores high flexing some muscle and keeping those lows away into next week. No heatwave, but some fine weather to be had in places.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Following this week's gradual change to cooler atlantic weather with some wind and rain, especially further n / nw, next week's Ecm 12z charts look rather good ( away from scotland / n.ireland ) with the emphasis on high pressure / ridging from the southwest and becoming very warm / hot for a time further s / se..more summery weather to return?..hopefully!..the signs are promising for southern uk at least.

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

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216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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I’m really not convinced by the 12z’s, TM airmasses arcing around a high pressure really suggests a lot of cloud and again potentially reasonable Synoptics not delivering at the surface. Additionally as the main centre of the Azores high never really displaced from its origins we’ll only ever get a short term benefit from it. If the ecm has a 264 & 288hr slide that low to the north west would be sliding down over the U.K. 

I think we have an unsettled spell likely Wednesday-Sunday with maybe a couple of days better weather following with temps recovering to low twenties, anything else appears to wildly optimistic at this stage. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

11Jun18_ECM12z_192.thumb.JPG.65ea9c75150ceee2b72e3cf9d215c9e5.JPG11Jun18_ECM12z_240.thumb.JPG.abe1a1ec4bd8120df6abd5b79beb0631.JPG

Well, at least I can doodle all over these things now without that adding hassle .

Estimated position of a trailing front on the +192 (black line), with very warm conditions possible in any sunshine ahead of it.

Did the same estimation on the +216 but as a dotted line, as I expect it would be a decaying boundary by then with broken cloud rather than a solid band. Also used a blue arrow to indicate what looks a more realistic movement of LP over the following 24 hours, as opposed to it somehow slamming on the brakes and dipping south (just my opinion, mind!).

 

Much of the trailing front issues stem from the LP this Thursday being more intense, drawing more in the way of polar maritime air down across the UK; this means the peak thermal gradient and hence the main thermal wind i.e. the jet stream locates further south compared to what GFS keeps going with.

ECM's still the most pessimistic of the 'main' models though. UKMO looks as decent as GFS for Sunday and prospects going forward.

 

Notable that ECM's backed down with respect to the weekend low; it now takes that southeast into mainland Europe, in line with what GFS has gone with on nearly all runs of late (18z of yesterday the exception). Generally, I have observed ECM to be making the wrong call with respect to the movement of LP in our vicinity on a despairingly large number of occasions over the past couple of months, and my opinion as to how useful it is has taken a major tumble. Such a shame, given that this model still outperforms the others for the globe overall and at most or all ranges (but with some occasional hiccups).

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m really not convinced by the 12z’s, TM airmasses arcing around a high pressure really suggests a lot of cloud and again potentially reasonable Synoptics not delivering at the surface. Additionally as the main centre of the Azores high never really displaced from its origins we’ll only ever get a short term benefit from it. If the ecm has a 264 & 288hr slide that low to the north west would be sliding down over the U.K. 

I think we have an unsettled spell likely Wednesday-Sunday with maybe a couple of days better weather following with temps recovering to low twenties, anything else appears to wildly optimistic at this stage. 

That’s probably the most glass half empty view you could take on the 12z runs! It’s unlikely that the temps will be below the low 20s even in the unsettled spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z ensemble mean looks decent to me.  Here at T240, looks better than the op run which threatened to go down hill at the last frame.

 image.thumb.jpg.a3019404c3f11d6dbff503c963878c09.jpg

It's difficult to know at the moment at what point FI kicks in.  Model reliability is poorer in summer than winter, but against that the systems most are interested in are slow moving highs which the models can predict from further out.  Maybe beyond about day 7 is testing the op runs at the moment?  All in all, I'm optimistic for a decent summery spell for the south at least, after the brief unsettled spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That’s probably the most glass half empty view you could take on the 12z runs! It’s unlikely that the temps will be below the low 20s even in the unsettled spell.

To be honest the complicated breakdown in our weather is best taken with loads of salt or perhaps rain Yes the Atlantic is coming in , but any detail is open to subject... the Devil in the detail,.The ten day ops both ecm and gfs show a similar evolution, ,but we all know that won't happen...Watch this space. ...:gathering:

ecmt850.240-9.png

h850t850eu-33.png

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15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That’s probably the most glass half empty view you could take on the 12z runs! It’s unlikely that the temps will be below the low 20s even in the unsettled spell.

Or the most realistic given how much things can change. Making a quote like that is fraught with danger, only the extreme south east will keep temps above 20c come Thursday. The origin of the airmass shown for next week will plagued by cloud if it occurs and as this last week has shown on many occasions favourable Synoptics with +12c 850s don’t always equate to widespread high 20’s. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well an improved ECM this evening, and the mean continues to send the jet stream north , now at 192 hours so fingers crossed the momentum carries on tomorrow. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well an improved ECM this evening, and the mean continues to send the jet stream north , now at 192 hours so fingers crossed the momentum carries on tomorrow. :)

Absolutely, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks even better than this morning's 00z regarding the last third of june..hopefully we will see a return to summery weather during next week, at least across southern uk.

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Well, some hope showing on the anomaly charts, 2 out of 3=GFS and tonight NOAA 6-10. That is the ridging from the Azores are with increasing heights, slight on NOAA but more pronounced on GFS, again less so on EC.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Please remember at hte next issue of both sets above they will change from what is shown this evening

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Summerstorm said:

This took 20 minutes to type so i hope people appreciate my analysis :rofl:

 

 

 

Thank you please keep posting with charts and your views. Everyone has the same right of opinion and especially when you talk through charts. Keep it up.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Probably some model runs to go before we firm up on what happens after the brief unsettled spell, but the 12z FIM9 is going great guns at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.280bb62bae25ced565d8e2543661031f.jpg

And the pub run not looking too shabby at T162, obviously this has a while to run yet, but all looks promising to me!  

image.thumb.jpg.21679898dffebbeec994f62f4d8a5576.jpg

Go summer '18  

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Well, some hope showing on the anomaly charts, 2 out of 3=GFS and tonight NOAA 6-10. That is the ridging from the Azores are with increasing heights, slight on NOAA but more pronounced on GFS, again less so on EC.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Please remember at hte next issue of both sets above they will change from what is shown this evening

Both highlight the retention of a +AO pattern which is driving the mid-lattitude high development. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Now this is what we want to see:

image.thumb.jpg.5426dd2ab64c009a5edbf428f2302ede.jpg

Doubling down on that, here at T252, I want to see more charts like this showing on subsequent runs, but this is an outstanding chart!

image.thumb.jpg.496bc23c8943485ef890f93b9bf9b86b.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I am quite looking forward to a pattern change if i am honnest,get rid of this stagnent few weeks that we have had with claginess coming in off the north sea at times to be replaced by a SWl'y or westerly,don't get me wrong,it has been lovely and dry most of the time with temps well above the average but i do fancy a change,reset the pattern and get the azores high in then enjoy some propper summer weather with the added bonus of plumes coming up from the south⚡☀️

that's more like it.

gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.270d591a79735bc0e00207cc1352dfb4.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I am really liking the 18z run with the jet a lot further north in the latter stages conpared to the 12z heralding another fine spell of weather courtesy of the azores high

bring it on☀️

tempresult_itg0.thumb.gif.ef7215c157ade210d0d5f6dd5a9eed50.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS ensembles well on board with this ridge from the Azores, here the mean  at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.073a9c80446910fe102306c66fcbac61.jpg

Summer '18 is going to happen, I think 

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I’m still erring on the side of caution but Gfs this morning appears to be nudging in the right direction. Irrespective of temperature one thing that is becoming increasingly likely is that June looks like becoming a very dry month. Many places in the south yet to record any measurable rainfall and gfs only hinting at 2-5mm in the next 10days or so. Clearly some very dry ground conditions that could aid some very high temperatures if we could high pressure in a favourable position. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Decent looking ECM too this morning once that disturbance clears away east into next week. Azores high ridging in, settling things down and warming up. Can't be bad!

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