Model output discussion 14/04/18

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking across the board it seems as usual in the coming setup that the north will take the brunt of any Atlantic mush with some rain down south. 

But the big question is how long.. Well I think for Northern areas a little longer than for the south as high pressure tries to ridge in. Infact it only looks like a brief blip this moring for the south before high pressure ridges in. This too could aid in settling down the north at times but being closer to low pressure systems the risk is higher of them returning to the north. 

However, it could be that the low pressure systems put up a good fight and there is no ridge building and it stays unsettled for longer but currently this is a very low risk (for the south anyway) 

[Man With Beard]

ECM making a bit of progress towards the other op runs this morning:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2018061100/ECM1-144.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2018061100/UW144-21.GIF

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2018061100/gem-0-144.png

 

Last night's clusters still had a split between unsettled for all and slightly less settled for the south - so between the 00Z op and last night's 12Z op, all bases appear covered:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/06/10/12/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061012_156.png

 

The ensembles last night were the most positive for a few days on the ridge returning D11-D15 (had been on the fence up till then). The two larger clusters are ridge dominated, the other one not overly unsettled either.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/06/10/12/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018061012_300.png

 

This morning continues that trend. Looking through the individual ECM ensembles, by the 24th June I would call roughly 60% of members settled, 20% unsettled and 20% somewhere between the two.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I have to say without having had the benefit of looking at the models this morning these sorts of charts always give hope, however in reality these nearly always end up much flatter the low to the north west sinking down over the UK. 

If your glass is half empty yes. Hard to believe you can even make your negative comments when you haven't even seen the charts! This spring/early summer has been very different to the norm of recent years so I don't think this logic applies.

Big shift this morning which is a trend in the right direction if you are looking for mostly dry conditions to continue.

[Singularity]

I thought it worthy of some note that the 18z GFS run lifted out the weekend low as per recent ECM runs, yet still managed to bring more ridging into play across the S half of the UK by the following Tuesday.

UKMO has now moved toward recent ECM runs with that weekend low, but like the 18z GFS, looks better poised than the ECM 00z to settle things down across S parts of the UK - the ridge probably not reaching quite as far north as GFS took it, but enough to keep it in play as we await a more helpful upstream trough positioning (which is still in the hand of the uncertain tropical forcing).

It sort of feels like we're hammering at a wall that divides 'summer to continue' from 'summer to be trashed', and have seen a few promising cracks appear, but not yet enough to get too excited about just yet.

[summer blizzard]

Euro tries to push the lows further north this morning but the Azores High does not have it in him to stop the cyclonic pattern with westerlies still firmly in charge at day 10..

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

If your glass is half empty yes. Hard to believe you can even make your negative comments when you haven't even seen the charts! This spring/early summer has been very different to the norm of recent years so I don't think this logic applies.

Big shift this morning which is a trend in the right direction if you are looking for mostly dry conditions to continue.

I get what your saying but having viewed charts from the inception of the internet I've seen this scenario many, many times and especially when the jet stream is attempting to ramp up models nearly always overplay the northeast extension of the Azores ridging. Trust me I'm more than happy to proven wrong. 

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I get what your saying but having viewed charts from the inception of the internet I've seen this scenario many, many times and especially when the jet stream is attempting to ramp up models nearly always overplay the northeast extension of the Azores ridging. Trust me I'm more than happy to proven wrong. 

I totally agree with this point. It's only when such ridges get to about T120 that I start to feel more comfortable that they're right. 

It has been a bit encouraging in the past 24 hours, though, to see the direction of travel towards a slightly more amplified ridge between T144 and T168, as this is often the period where the models traditionally start to go the other way. 

This season has bucked all sorts of trends so far, so perhaps this could be another trend to buck

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

The ensembles last night were the most positive for a few days on the ridge returning D11-D15 (had been on the fence up till then). The two larger clusters are ridge dominated, the other one not overly unsettled either.

This morning continues that trend. Looking through the individual ECM ensembles, by the 24th June I would call roughly 60% of members settled, 20% unsettled and 20% somewhere between the two.

yes reasonably positive on the clusters again for the last 3rd of June - heights generally far enough north to limit unsettled spells. That's two successive ensemble runs in this vein.

 

Edited June 11, 2018 by Man With Beard

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

yes reasonably positive on the clusters again for the last 3rd of June - heights generally far enough north to limit unsettled spells. That's two successive ensemble runs in this vein.

 

And GFS6Z certainly pushing the jet back north pretty quickly.

Hoopefully a little momentum towards the Azores high making a real fist of it.

[booferking]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

And GFS6Z certainly pushing the jet back north pretty quickly.

Hoopefully a little momentum towards the Azores high making a real fist of it.

Yep jet looks to be heading North again hope this trend continues been a great start to summer so far.

[Frosty.]

Well...the Gfs 6z operational looks great next week onwards with high pressure and warm / very warm high summer conditions returning, especially across england and wales..hope it's right!

[Frosty.]

Once again, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks much better than the operational at day 10..hope the ops improve and that the mean continues to build on this potential!

Edited June 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

 been a great start to summer so far.

Depends on one's location, it's been a terrible end to spring / start to summer across eastern coastal counties, especially the NE with all the north sea cloud / mist and even sea fog and associated cool temperatures which have frequently rolled much further inland at times but all that will change this week as the atlantic pushes lows through during the midweek period, especially the north. Another point is that many areas have had and indeed still are having high humidity levels but it will be turning much fresher from the west once the oceanic air mass arrives.  

Edited June 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Well...the Gfs 6z operational looks great next week onwards with high pressure and warm / very warm high summer conditions returning, especially across england and wales..hope it's right!

Yes indeed, GFS ups the anti on the northeast extension of the Azores high and would give hope to my week off planned. GFS 06Z ensembles also provide solid support with the Ops run being well within the pack and never an outlier. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean I see a BIG improvement next week as the azores high ridges over the uk with a return to summery weather across most of the uk, especially the southern half.

[stainesbloke]

Looking increasingly likely that the coming unsettled spell will be short-lived, especially for the southern half of the UK. Hopefully some useful rain here before the more settled weather comes back.

[Djdazzle]

37 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Looking increasingly likely that the coming unsettled spell will be short-lived, especially for the southern half of the UK. Hopefully some useful rain here before the more settled weather comes back.

If the trend to move the jet north continues,  the south will see very little rain.

[shaky]

Gfs 12z continues the northward push of the jet up to 192 hours and more warm sunny weather for england and wales at least!!ive not seen meaning full rainfull for a number of weeks now!!incredible!!

[Djdazzle]

It’s annoyingly that the Azores high never quite ridges far enough east to give the UK  a really cracking summer spell. A nice summer spell but no heatwave.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

32 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 12z continues the northward push of the jet up to 192 hours and more warm sunny weather for england and wales at least!!ive not seen meaning full rainfull for a number of weeks now!!incredible!!

Yes good charts, and good riddance north sea mist

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018061112/gfs-0-168.png?12

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s annoyingly that the Azores high never quite ridges far enough east to give the UK  a really cracking summer spell. A nice summer spell but no heatwave.

Looks ok to me with mid to high 20s for most of England which is where all homegrown heatwaves start out, from there they just rise in a degree or two each day under our own HP and not relying on anything continental.  (2013)

Edited June 11, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes good charts, and good riddance north sea mist

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018061112/gfs-0-168.png?12

Remains to be seen how much cloud there is circulating around the top of that HP...the airmass is of a TM nature. It could very easily be muggy and cloudy from Midlands northwards....worst kind of non-descript weather there is in my very honest opinion.

Edited June 11, 2018 by CreweCold

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looks ok to me with mid to high 20s for most of England which is where all homegrown heatwaves start out, from there they just rise in a degree or two each day under our own HP and not relying on anything continental.  (2013)

Not so sure, that airmass will be likely be subtropical maratime in nature and with pressure not really high enough i would have thought plenty of infill about. The 10c 850pha is now only a couple of C above average in the south and that isotherm never makes it over all but the extreme south for a day or so at a time. Really need pressure to fall over western russia and Greenland to high in the right plaxe.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Alderc

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Remains to be seen how much cloud there is circulating around the top of that HP...the airmass is of a TM nature. It could very easily be muggy and cloudy from Midlands northwards.

Snap.....

[Djdazzle]

Agree. Would be ironic if the North Sea muck was replaced by Atlantic crud! Looks ok in the south but won’t be wall to wall sun.