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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

That low for Thursday will really sweep away the cobwebs and North Sea cloud:laugh:

yes, makes a change though to have a westerly 

ECM1-96.GIF?10-0

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Interesting gem keeps pushing the high pressure outlook - you’d have to think it’s wrong now though with gfs and ecm firming up on the westerly based regime. Looking a bit more disturbed than thought a couple of days back, the next thing to look out for is a route out. Ecm is removing the steep thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard in a weeks time, which should hopefully help slow the jet down. What we don’t want then is things to get so sluggish that low pressure near the UK gets stuck. Keep those eyes peeled.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The GEM this evening is a superb run.  From T144 the high pressure builds and I would love to see the weather evolve like this:

tempresult_zfo7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro tonight is pretty cyclonic..

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The GEM this evening is a superb run.  From T144 the high pressure builds and I would love to see the weather evolve like this:

tempresult_zfo7.gif

Yes mike the GEM 12z turns into a cracker of a run through week 2 with high pressure and temperatures soaring into the mid 20's celsius across southern uk following a brief flirtation with the atlantic..fingers crossed!:)☀️

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes mike the GEM 12z turns into a cracker of a run through week 2 with high pressure and temperatures soaring into the mid 20's celsius across southern uk following a brief flirtation with the atlantic..fingers crossed!:)☀️

Yes, best model by miles for our weather preferences , but minor cannon fodder model, ends with you know what though

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but minor cannon fodder model, ends with you know what though

I wouldn't rule the GEM 12z out, the GEFS 12z mean also indicates a marked improvement across southern uk, especially during the second half of week 2.

Edited by Frosty.
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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I wouldn't rule the GEM 12z out, the GEFS 12z mean also indicates a marked improvement across southern uk, especially during the second half of week 2.

Looking like a return to normal June settings i.e. NW/SE split hopefully nothing to horrendous and long lasting,growers will be happy though 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Rukm1441.gif Rgem1441.gif

UKMO is very close to GEM at +144 so that's encouraging if you'd like to see the Azores High given the best possible chance to get back in early-mid next week.

On the other hand, ECM sure is being stubborn in handling the Saturday low very differently, with the upstream trough then absorbing it and in doing so being able to barge its way right on into the UK - albeit only briefly (this is arguably encouraging in itself...).

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Looking towards the 10day period, let's look at the ECM ensemble mean at T240, decent ridge at least for the south,

tempresult_udv1.gif

I love the T240 FIM9 this sort of evolution is definitely still on the cards.

tempresult_bgv6.gif

Roll on summer 2018 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

While the ECM op really needs the support of the ens when northern blocking is at hand, it is far better at coping without it on a westerly. I think it may have the pattern right tonight, though perhaps a small northerly correction later on (often is the case). 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU12_87_1.png

It seems as though Thursday low has actually turned out more intense then it did a few days ago. Unfortunate because it stops the Azores high ridging in.

A pretty potent low for mid June too!

ECM looks rather poor this evening, hopefully the Azores high will try and make its way across after Thursday's low clears.... but lets see.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

UKMO pick of the big 3 tonight at 144, EC op is poor really, no other way to describe it.The mean is again better longer term,as has been the case for a few days now.

All eyes on 120-144 on tomorrows 00z runs to see if UKMO is sniffing the right evolution.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I notice tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks a lot better than the operational at day 10 which was also the case with the 00z..i.e..the azores high / ridge is a lot closer to the southwest of the uk and the low is further north...at least I'm looking for the positives rather than the negatives!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

The GEM this evening is a superb run.  From T144 the high pressure builds and I would love to see the weather evolve like this:

tempresult_zfo7.gif

It really wouldn’t surprise me to see this become the outcome as we do seem to be quite settled generally and with a continental flow. So maybe a brief Atlantic blast then back to the usual of late but maybe warmer

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
50 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

Quite an accumulated rainfall contrast on the GFS 0z run. 

GFSOPUK00_384_18.png

I hope that verifies, looking at a water shortage hereabouts if not, maybe even with the 2" of rain suggested.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO and ECM 00z both pretty similar at t144 this morning with high pressure trying to move up but a fairly deep low never looks far away from the north

UW144-21.GIF?11-07ECM1-144.GIF?11-12

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and ECM 00z both pretty similar at t144 this morning with high pressure trying to move up but a fairly deep low never looks far away from the north

UW144-21.GIF?11-07ECM1-144.GIF?11-12

I have to say without having had the benefit of looking at the models this morning these sorts of charts always give hope, however in reality these nearly always end up much flatter the low to the north west sinking down over the UK. 

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