Model output discussion 14/04/18

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well yes and no, i would imagine our locale will get quite a bit of rain next week and possibly beyond looking at the 00z runs.

I really am not complaining though, its been a brilliant May and 1st week of June.

Hoping the ooz runs have overdone the jet/Atlantic next week , for sure a more traditional UK split looms..

Well the Met are obviously not buying any sort of high pressure building in just yet, the 14 dayer today is saying likely unsettled out to the 23rd at least. Those tentative pressure builds we have been teased with may have to wait a bit longer, they feel the last week of June could see the high returning. The good thing is that the Azores high is poised to build at the moment, not suppressed back like in the terrible summers we have!



As long as charts like this don't start appearing (June 2012, top 3 cyclonic Junes on record, one of the coldest, wettest and dullest Junes on record) then we are ok!

[Matthew.]

It doesn’t look like the year of Greenland blocking either so I can’t see a poor summer without this feature

Edited June 9, 2018 by Matthew.

[johnholmes]

21 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I'm happy with the Ecm 12z, it shows plenty of fine / warm, sometimes very warm weather...especially further south.

An azores / atlantic ridge pushes east across the uk next week which means a largely fine spell for most of next week further south..it's only a partial breakdown which mainly affects the far NW and the azores high looks nicely poised at day 10..cool atlantic spell?..what cool atlantic spell!!!

Not able to open any of these, no doubt the new system, any idea what I use to get the charts to show anyone. Sad that after so many years we are having this trouble. Hope Paul can magic up some way of being able to post and others to read them.

[johnholmes]

20 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening ! The major Pattern change looks likely around Wednesday next week, no point looking for any detail by then as models struggle with pattern changes ,but the winds blowing from a Westerly direction rather than the East  looks very likely....After months of Continental weather , we may resume normal service from the West , and there will be sparkling Atlantic sunshine to enjoy......Im certainly welcome a change......Just look at the jet stream now , and predicted next Wednesday....

ditto for frosty A

Am I the only one having trouble?

[feno13]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

ditto for frosty A

Am I the only one having trouble?

I cant view them either john

[Djdazzle]

GFS does its usual thing of developing a dartboard low over the UK. One for the bin me thinks - no way that would happen.

[Badgers01]

Nope can’t read them either ...

[Mike Poole]

GEM this evening looks a nice run, a bit unsettled for the north toward the end of next week, but then building the high exactly as many would want:

Bank 

 

[mb018538]

Slightly iffy gfs and UKmo, which have the lows having more influence again this eve. To-ing and fro-ing all over the place! Gem is excellent.

[Daniel*]

The models look very westerly driven this evening it’s not terrible but it’s not good either some much needed rain for north/west, may anchor down longer than what some thought, clearly a period of high uncertainty.

[Methuselah]

All looking better in two respects, though, I think: more variation generally will mean that places threatened with drought will see some welcome rain, whilst those folks who've been repeatedly drenched/flooded, of late, ought to get some decent dry spells...?

What could possibly go wrong with that, eh?

[Paul]

Re the images not working, please see the announcement in the red box at the top of the page - we're making changes to the system today and while that's in progress the upload system isn't working. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems to be working for Mike okay

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems to be working for Mike okay

A workaround for now is to paste links from the image/s into the box I've put an arrow next to

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cool SS seems to have worked! anyway UKMO chart for next wed, at last and end to the easterlies

Edited June 9, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[northwestsnow]

EC looks very warm to hot for the 1s week of the World cup in Russia,this tends to happen a lot in a westerly setup,as the lows barrel towards the UK and then lift up towards scandy or fill, in response we usually see highs over SE Europe, and hot weather roughly across Poland and anywhere south or east of it,sometimes as far north as the baltics.

Im no fan of the upcoming regime, i totally understand why those in the east  want shut of the current one, but i honestly fear it maybe only the SE that escapes the Atlantic rains,i suppose on refection its been a fabulous 6 weeks or so west of the pennines , but i really dont think there will be much cheer again for those away from the SE, perhaps extreme SE.

Background signals i think still support the Atlantic pattern being relatively shortlived, a week or two, Exeter still seeing some hot weather esp for the south later in June so fingers crossed we will see hints of the high fighting back .

[Frosty.]

Longer term the GEFS 12z mean shows the jet forced further north as the azores high ridges towards the uk so the last third of June will hopefully see a return to summery conditions across most of the uk..fingers crossed.

[Djdazzle]

Horrific ECM, no other words for it!

[Eugene]

At long last a change to a more interesting fresher changeable pattern, ECMWF 12Z showing impressive atlantic cold pooling out west/northwest for second half of June. Things could get very chilly indeed esp at night if we tap into some of that and hopefully alot more clear blue sunny skies than these god-awful humid cloudy northeasterlies. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Edited June 9, 2018 by Eugene

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Eugene said:

At long last a change to a more interesting fresher changeable pattern, ECMWF 12Z showing impressive atlantic cold pooling out west/northwest for second half of June, things could get very chilly indeed esp at night if we tap into some if that and hopefully slot mote clear blue sunny skies than thrse god-awful humid cloudy northeasterlies. 

You forgot to mention the total washout.

[mb018538]

Yikes....total disaster 12z ecm!! So much volatility at the moment, everything from high pressure to low pressure and something in between. But this is pure garbage.

[Djdazzle]

You couldn’t draw a worst 240 chart if you tried. It’s vile beyond belief.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

change from easterly breezes at least

[Leon1]

Easterly breezes are great in the South-west! Just dry and sunny!

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You couldn’t draw a worst 240 chart if you tried. It’s vile beyond belief.

This one you mean?

I think this would push a decent high in the direction of the UK in 2 days?  I think we just need to get into this less settled period, and then look for ways out of it, I'm still of the opinion it's a blip.  We'll see.