Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

After those awful runs GFS yesterday its looking much better for medium term,  and am I right in saying i can see signs of major ridging developing across parts of Western and Central Europe by end of June? Its a very good sign for heatwave lovers If this becomes a blocked pattern then it could turn into a major heat event for our side of Europe something not seen since 2003/6

 

[Frosty.]

I'm happy with the Ecm 12z, it shows plenty of fine / warm, sometimes very warm weather...especially further south.

An azores / atlantic ridge pushes east across the uk next week which means a largely fine spell for most of next week further south..it's only a partial breakdown which mainly affects the far NW and the azores high looks nicely poised at day 10..cool atlantic spell?..what cool atlantic spell!!!

Edited June 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

agree Frosty, still would be better than a cool easterly spell! EC though is good from Wed

[mb018538]

Not bad at all - the Atlantic onslaught could be a non event at this rate, and just a brief brush with the NW. Far too early to be confident yet though.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening ! The major Pattern change looks likely around Wednesday next week, no point looking for any detail by then as models struggle with pattern changes ,but the winds blowing from a Westerly direction rather than the East  looks very likely....After months of Continental weather , we may resume normal service from the West , and there will be sparkling Atlantic sunshine to enjoy......Im certainly welcome a change......Just look at the jet stream now , and predicted next Wednesday....

[Frosty.]

40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not bad at all - the Atlantic onslaught could be a non event at this rate, and just a brief brush with the NW. Far too early to be confident yet though.

Agreed, it's more like a storm in a chocolate teapot than a major pattern change.. It's looking like a glancing blow with  n / nw uk mostly affected and only briefly with  plenty of fine warm weather the further s / se you are.

Edited June 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't look bad does it..plenty of fine and warm weather, especially further south and then just a bit of a blip from  around T+144 hours, mostly further NW where the most unsettled weather would be and then improving significantly further south as pressure rises again..this actually looks even better than the 00z longer term..at least for southern uk!..and soon an end to the north sea cloudy filth..happy days!

Edited June 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

Eastern areas will really notice the difference once the dull drizzly skies are replaced by fair weather cloud and a real warmup for places close to the eastern coast. 3 weeks this North Sea pattern has held!

[Man With Beard]

Yes as many have mentioned, all change by this time next week. Have to say, the change was very well documented in the extended ensembles over the past week - they are rarely letting me down these days. 

Bit disappointed we didn't get a proper heatwave out of the current pattern - it was close, but pressure just wasn't high enough. Still, lots of great weather on and off, except on the east coast I imagine. 

So the question now is - how far will the trough get south by next weekend? Hard to be sure. Normally, I find the models overdo the northern extent of riding from the south west. But then again, pattern changes are often watered down slightly. So could go either way, and the EC clusters this morning were pretty split between troughing only affecting the NW in a major way / all areas being unsettled. 

Into the last third of the month, and I think things could get interesting especially for Southern areas. It looks likely that a ridge will get established from Azores up through the continent. With an active Atlantic, it looks prime for a cold front to disrupt out to our west at some point and encourage our first plume of the year. Whether it would reach the UK anyway is not a given if it did happen, but one to watch! 

[Mike Poole]

Well the pub run's going with the idea of a ridge from the Azores here with all power to it, I say, T0 to T198 on the 18z:

Charts like this won't work for long, enjoy!

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

18z gets that Azores going with a juicy ridge in Fantasy Imagination which hopefully turns into reality.  Not going to post the screenshots as I hate ruining good movies!!   

[mb018538]

00z runs aren’t too bad, slightly more westerly based than high pressure based (especially the ecm), but gfs and gem get some warmth through with the ridge. The good sign of the lows aren’t going to the south or straight through the UK...so no southerly tracking jet, which gives chances of the Azores high building in time.

[Frosty.]

Generally a pleasant Gfs 00z with the emphasis on high pressure / ridges building in again and again, just the far n / nw occasionally a bit more unsettled as atlantic lows brush across but can't complain about this run as most of the uk, at least the southern half looks predominantly fine and warm.

Edited June 9, 2018 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Generally a pleasant Gfs 00z with the emphasis on high pressure building in again and again, just the far n / nw occasionally a bit more unsettled as atlantic lows brush across but can't complain about this run as most of the uk, at least the southern half looks predominantly fine and warm.

Quite looking forward to the expected pattern-change, Karl; one can take only so much North Sea crud...Who say that the weather can't be boring?

[Summer Sun]

Looking at 00z UKMO a deep low develops later next week with the centre between Iceland and Scotland with pressure always that bit higher in the south

 

Edited June 9, 2018 by Summer Sun

[mb018538]

Just to illustrate the NW/SE split in terms of accumulated ppn for the next 10 days:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018060900/234-777UK.GIF?09-0

Parts of NW Scotland and the fells in Cumbria could receive 100mm+, where as parts of the E/SE corner could see nothing or just 1/2mm. Pretty much your classic UK set up. Expected max temperatures reflecting this too, generally staying in the low 20s in the E/SE, perhaps a bit disappointing at times out west under the cloud and rain.

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Quite looking forward to the expected pattern-change, Karl; one can take only so much North Sea crud...Who say that the weather can't be boring?

Me too Ed..I mean pete..really looking forward to this major pattern change exactly for the reason you mentioned..i.e..North sea crud / filth..good riddance!!!

[northwestsnow]

More emphasis on the Atlantic this morning.Certainly from EC.

Looks very wet for NW Britain - better the further SE one heads but after the promising runs of yesterday a bit of a backward step this morning.

[Summer Sun]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

More emphasis on the Atlantic this morning.Certainly from EC.

Looks very wet for NW Britain - better the further SE one heads but after the promising runs of yesterday a bit of a backward step this morning.

Yes, you can tell our weather will be coming in from the Atlantic again just by looking at the precip charts

[mb018538]

Just for fun - the ECM ensembles (albeit these are from last nights 12z runs, todays wont appear until 10pm tonight):

At 240:

#

Roughly 65% ridge dominated, 30% NW/SE typical UK weather, and 5% totally low pressure dominated

Out at 360 hours:



37% cyclonic low pressure, 35% westerly ridge based, 28% high pressure ridge. No real stand out choice there, so plenty of options on the table. 

[Mike Poole]

The GFS 6z shows a low pressure affecting mostly northern parts on Thursday, this the last remnants of the descent into awful summer weather models were hinting at a couple of days ago (hopefully).  The later part of the run looks great:

Edited June 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Who cares if we get unsettled next week its looking like its going to be a short lived blip. The Azores isn't exactly a million miles away

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Who cares if we get unsettled next week its looking like its going to be a short lived blip. The Azores isn't exactly a million miles away

Well yes and no, i would imagine our locale will get quite a bit of rain next week and possibly beyond looking at the 00z runs.

I really am not complaining though, its been a brilliant May and 1st week of June.

Hoping the ooz runs have overdone the jet/Atlantic next week , for sure a more traditional UK split looms..

[damianslaw]

After what has been a very protracted spell of non-atlantic weather, nearing on 2 months really.. it looks like normal service will be resumed shortly, with westerlies pervading once again, with the typical NW-SE split in evidence. Mind this often occurs as we move through June, the atlantic suddenly stirs again - it is all to do with the steeper temp gradients developing between the warm landmass over USA and the colder arctic airmass to the north - the arctic is still preety cold in June, this year the cold has been bottled up in the past few weeks, and ready to advect southwards interacting with the increasing heat over USA- hence a rejuvenated jetstream.

Question is how long will the more unsettled atlantic pattern reign, the azores high will never be far away, and I suspect we will see it ridging into SE parts and trying hard to nose NE, so the wettest coolest and windiest conditions will be reserved for the NW quarter of the UK, mostly dry still in the SE, but often cloudy.

The NW has been very dry since early April, but quite a bit of rain now looks likely mid June, redressing the balance.

[MP-R]

Looks like a similar sort of interlude to June 2005. Winds from a northeasterly quadrant until about the 12th, an Atlantic interlude until the 17th while the pattern reset to summer mode thereafter.

Only in the poorest summers does June end up being exhibiting Atlantic weather at length. We have time on our side. If it were mid August I may think differently.