Model output discussion 14/04/18

[johnholmes]

44 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i guess im clutching at straws, but doesnt the 8-14 day chart suggest the azh shifting a bit further eastward with slight pressure rise to our south and indeed across the uk in comparison to the 6-10 day chart?  so maybe not quite as unsettled ?. (or wet lol)

It does show this very slightly but I would need it to show rather more of that consistently to start to believe the longer trend on NOAA.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

At last, a westerly! make a change after 6 weeks misty cloudy rubbish

Edited June 7, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Singularity]

 

 Slight delay to the 'proper westerlies' on this run; a bit more of a ridge ahead of the main Atlantic trough. Only one reasonable day of weather gained though - we can't stave off the inevitable for much longer!

p.s. I'm finding I can't see these attachments after I submit the post, is this the case for others too?

[Summerstorm]

9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 p.s. I'm finding I can't see these attachments after I submit the post, is this the case for others too?

Yeah your post earlier had the same problem i'll try and post the +144 hrs UKMO chart now to see if i have a problem as well as the chart doesn't look too shabby especially compared to the GFS output at the same time frame with it having none of the blocking the GFS is suggesting. It also puts less influence on the trough in the Mid Atlantic allowing the AH to be a bit more influential. Would be interesting to see what the extended chart of the UKMO says compared to the GFS at 168hrs also to see whether the atlantic breaks through or whether the AH can hold on. 

Edited June 7, 2018 by Summerstorm

[Djdazzle]

Well GFS beyond 180 is a horror show if you want anything settled or warm.

[geoffw]

has tamara or GP said anything about the long range outlook and if so what was said ?

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well GFS beyond 180 is a horror show if you want anything settled or warm.

This is the scenario I’m worried about and at the worst possible time when summer should be getting into full flow. It sounds really negative but the gfs pattern in the 12z this evening is exactly the sort that can become entrenched over the U.K. for 4weeks delivering days and days of cool wet weather that really wouldn’t be out of place in late October. 

[Frosty.]

Although the Gfs 12z eventually becomes very unsettled and cooler through low res..we still have another week or so of generally warm weather to come according to this run with temps into the low 20's c in many areas on most of the next 7 or 8 days with plenty of fine and sunny weather but an increasing risk of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms..the south in particular becomes warmer and more humid in the next few days with temps into the mid 20's celsius during the weekend..sunday looks warmest with potentially 80F for the southeast..even by  friday next week temps are still around 70F in the s / e..

[Djdazzle]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

This is the scenario I’m worried about and at the worst possible time when summer should be getting into full flow. It sounds really negative but the gfs pattern in the 12z this evening is exactly the sort that can become entrenched over the U.K. for 4weeks delivering days and days of cool wet weather that really wouldn’t be out of place in late October. 

Well I’m clinging to the fact that’s it’s low res and FI! Let’s see what the ECM churns out.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

This is the scenario I’m worried about and at the worst possible time when summer should be getting into full flow. It sounds really negative but the gfs pattern in the 12z this evening is exactly the sort that can become entrenched over the U.K. for 4weeks delivering days and days of cool wet weather that really wouldn’t be out of place in late October. 

If this summer does turn out a poor one I think questions will need to be raised about why UK summers just cant be summer anymore and why the Azores always struggles to develop a decent ridge.  Its now since 2007 that every summer has gone down the pan (apart from 2013).   But im positive that this unsettled spell will be just short lived.

Edited June 7, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Paul]

We've changed the way images in posts work, please see this thread for more info:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89973-changes-to-images-in-posts/

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Although the Gfs 12z eventually becomes very unsettled and cooler through low res..we still have another week or so of generally warm weather to come according to this run with temps into the low 20's c in many areas on most of the next 7 or 8 days with plenty of fine and sunny weather but an increasing risk of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms..the south in particular becomes warmer and more humid in the next few days with temps into the mid 20's celsius during the weekend..sunday looks warmest with potentially 80F for the southeast..even by  friday next week temps are still around 70F in the s / e..

No disrespect but 70f in London the middle of June is really nothing to shout about. In reality that a really poor chart for many with 14-17c most likely.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No disrespect but 70f in London the middle of June is really nothing to shout about. In reality that a really poor chart for many with 14-17c most likely.

I wasn't shouting about anything, just making the point that the Gfs 12z looks quite decent away from the far w / nw for the next week or so..and that's the reliable timeframe.

[Matthew.]

I can’t see anything concerning just yet. Looks like we finally pick up a westerly flow but the Azores ridge looks poised to bounce back on the ECM

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I can’t see anything concerning just yet. Looks like we finally pick up a westerly flow but the Azores ridge looks poised to bounce back on the ECM

Indeed, not the worst end to the run is it, signs of hope..and actually most of the run looks on the warm side, at least across southern uk with the bulk of the unsettled weather from later next week  across the w / nw..I've seen much worse! ..oh yes and it will be good riddance to north sea cloudy muck soon too!

Edited June 7, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

I would t worry too much about the gfs 12z op, its a cold and wet outlier. General ensemble trends are a better indicator, these are all over the place in the 7-14 day period, so no real indicators yet. Still warm options there, I think we may have to wait another 5 days for the unsettled stuff to start arriving before we know what we might get after.

[Frosty.]

Longer term, there continues to be encouraging signs from the GEFS 12z mean that  the more changeable / unsettled atlantic incursion from later next week would be fairly short-lived with the azores high / ridge looking increasingly influential from just after mid june..at least for the southern half of the uk.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

And with the near continent and Spain set to warm up, we should get the benefit from any plumes that materialise. Still too far out though to be confident.

[mb018538]

Another day, another plot twist.

All of the models this morning are scaling back low pressure influence - now shown to be out to the NW, with more of an Azores ridge meaning it probably won't be that bad, and more of your traditional UK NW/SE split in terms of settled weather.

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Another day, another plot twist.

All of the models this morning are scaling back low pressure influence - now shown to be out to the NW, with more of an Azores ridge meaning it probably won't be that bad, and more of your traditional UK NW/SE split in terms of settled weather.

Yes quite a chang. Be interesting to see where the ECM goes further on

[mb018538]

34 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Yes quite a chang. Be interesting to see where the ECM goes further on

Now that's what we want to see....proper Azores high building!

[Matthew.]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Now that's what we want to see....proper Azores high building!

Lots of low pressure around Greenland too. Much potential there!

[Djdazzle]

Although if I’m being fussy, I’d like to see that ridge build more NE as it looks like it could get flattened further down the line.

GFS also builds the ridge, but the HP retrogresses and we end up with a horrid Scandinavia LP.

[johnholmes]

Just trying the new system of downloading files, not sure if it wiull work

It shows the last set of 500 mb anomaly charts for this morning and those for Tuesday just gone.

Showing the comparison and my comments

 

1-net wx 8 june 2018.doc

Edited June 8, 2018 by johnholmes
will not open for me-off out so will ask how to do it later-sorry

[mb018538]

Much better NH profile there - Icelandic low, Greenland low, no arctic high pressure. Exactly what we need to see for a potentially decent UK summer spell.