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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

After the GFS 6z went right down the toilet in the later stages, the 12z does the opposite.  Here's the first half:

tempresult_rjx8.gif

Largely settled, but low pressures encroaching from various directions to put some flies in ointments in certain areas.    Then the second half, obviously this is just to illustrate possibilities, well into FI .

tempresult_ubr4.gif

The thing that strikes me on recent output is the ridging from the Azores to the UK, this is where decent summer weather comes from. ☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

After the GFS 6z went right down the toilet in the later stages, the 12z does the opposite.  Here's the first half:

tempresult_rjx8.gif

Largely settled, but low pressures encroaching from various directions to put some flies in ointments in certain areas.    Then the second half, obviously this is just to illustrate possibilities, well into FI .

tempresult_ubr4.gif

The thing that strikes me on recent output is the ridging from the Azores to the UK, this is where decent summer weather comes from. ☀️

Yes, i know it's FI but it really is chalk and cheese with the 6z/12z!

I looked at the ensembles this morning (0z) and assumed more of the same, i.e current nondescript pressure pattern for the UK long term (High to N, slack Low over europe) but when i checked this afternoon (showing the 6z suite) I thought bloody hell summers over!  If the 12z actually verified it 1976 again.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ukmo 12z, even without the benefit of viewing the 850's these charts suggest to me that it's going to become warmer and more humid, indeed very warm further south with a continental inflow and an increasing risk of thunderstorms again but plenty of fine and sunny weather too.

PS..the Gfs 12z becomes really nice through low res..actually, high res is pretty good too with further summery temperatures.:smile:

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

12_312_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
13 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yes, i know it's FI but it really is chalk and cheese with the 6z/12z!

I looked at the ensembles this morning (0z) and assumed more of the same, i.e current nondescript pressure pattern for the UK long term (High to N, slack Low over europe) but when i checked this afternoon (showing the 6z suite) I thought bloody hell summers over!  If the 12z actually verified it 1976 again.

Yes, you mention the ensembles, and the extent to which the 12z suite support the op run is significant I think, here's the mean at T240:

gens-21-1-240.png?12

And if you look at the individual realisations, that ridge from the Azores to the UK is there on most of them.  Let's see if the ECM follows suit.   I'm certainly not ruling out 1976 repeat at this point! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As Mike mentioned, the GEFS 12z mean shows strong azores high / ridge influence through the mid june period which would bring a warm settled spell to most of the uk.:smile:☀️

21_288_500mb.png

21_312_500mb.png

21_336_500mb.png

21_360_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z looks nice at T120, with a ridge from the Azores:

ECM1-120.GIF?04-0

Thereafter a bit of a messy evolution, but by T240 along the same track as other output, promising:

ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

As ever im thankful for Tamara for here superb analysis of the background drivers and i'm actually feeling a little more optimistic that any breakdown of the status quo might not prove to be as bad as i feared a few days ago, ie extensive Greenland blocking and southerly tracking lows (and attendant jet).

 

It still looks likely we will see some kind of maritime intrusion longer term , the hope is it will not become entrenched.

In the meantime a mainly dry warm week looks odds on for many..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 12z..with 850's like these and given some sunshine I think low to mid 20's celsius, even higher for the most favoured parts of the s / e at times and a good deal of fine weather is indicated but also an increasing risk of thunderstorms returning for parts of the south later this week, more widespread risk for a time next week and becoming more humid too..the summery spell continues..signs that the azores high beginning to ridge in later.:smile:?️☀️

24_thickuk.png

48_thickuk.png

48_mslp850.png

72_thickuk.png

72_mslp850.png

96_thickuk.png

96_mslp850.png

120_thickuk.png

120_mslp850.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

192_mslp850.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

thats 3 consecutive runs now these charts have suggested troughing over the uk for the 6-14 days period.

that must be concerning knowing their accuracy when consistent, and would suggest the gfs 06z will be closer to the mark then other runs that suggest ridging ....... unfortunately

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
On 21/05/2018 at 11:02, mushymanrob said:

sorry chaps, whilst there are some stunning outputs currently if you like it hot, the anomaly charts dont agree with the ops as to where the high will be centered, and the anomaly charts are more often then not correct. they have been suggesting high pressure evolution just west of north now for several days which to me suggests consistency.
so to my eye, this chart
610day_03.thumb.gif.5125ea3aa7eb78acddea7429ba93411f.gif

will not lead to this


GFSOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.67a4d48d0352f9c632f984191c730fe0.png

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

thats 3 consecutive runs now these charts have suggested troughing over the uk for the 6-14 days period.

that must be concerning knowing their accuracy when consistent, and would suggest the gfs 06z will be closer to the mark then other runs that suggest ridging ....... unfortunately

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Given how wrong the anomaly charts were last time I'd saw a warm and muggy SE'ly is the more likely option then!

That chart you post for the 29th on May 21st was remarkably close to the actual chart!

image.thumb.png.6f72dbf0ba0d7a30b1da17690085bab3.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Now that's an Azores ridge:

fim-0-240.png?12

It's the FIM9 at T240.  In situations like this where the pattern may change I like to keep a kind of super-ensemble in mind of the high res runs, and experimental FIM9 is as high res as GFS, so it counts.  

ECM ensemble mean at same time, inconclusive I'd say, I preferred the GEFS mean, but still looks like there's lots of realisations to the good in there.

EDM1-240.GIF?04-0

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

thats 3 consecutive runs now these charts have suggested troughing over the uk for the 6-14 days period.

that must be concerning knowing their accuracy when consistent, and would suggest the gfs 06z will be closer to the mark then other runs that suggest ridging ....... unfortunately

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

It makes you feel a little nervous doesn't it! I think the UK is a "corridor of uncertainty" on that chart - pretty even chances between the Atlantic pushing through the gap between weak ridges SW and NE, or the ridges joining forces to keep the most unsettled weather out. 

I'm a bit surprised that the chart does not have a stronger Azores High ridging towards the SW UK though, as much op/ens output seems to be headed that WAY (latest EC ensemble mean less bullish but might be due to the evening out of clusters, we'll see later). 

However great posts from @Tamaraand @Singularitytoday show how the demise of the ridge may be overstated, along with this morning's clusters. Let's hope! 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

I think the east may have real problems this month in terms of dullness if we continue to see a Scandinavia high, low to the south and no Azores high linkup. I’ve never experienced such dullness in June from memory with this week not looking much better. Essentially we have northern blocking to the Northeast. At least it’s dry on the whole by the looks of precipitation anomalies

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire
58 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I think the east may have real problems this month in terms of dullness if we continue to see a Scandinavia high, low to the south and no Azores high linkup. I’ve never experienced such dullness in June from memory with this week not looking much better. Essentially we have northern blocking to the Northeast. At least it’s dry on the whole by the looks of precipitation anomalies

Looking at around the 11th for the wind to start changing direction, giving some relief to us in the N.E. (Middlesbrough)

Another dull week to go yet. That'll be 1 sunny day out of 23? By the time it shifts... Remarkably stubborn weather pattern.  

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
5 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I think the east may have real problems this month in terms of dullness if we continue to see a Scandinavia high, low to the south and no Azores high linkup. I’ve never experienced such dullness in June from memory with this week not looking much better. Essentially we have northern blocking to the Northeast. At least it’s dry on the whole by the looks of precipitation anomalies

Seems to have happened a lot in recent years with easterly winds predominating in June and as a result those of us in the east suffering from dullness. I suppose the only consolation is that we can get our own back in July and August. Bring on the south westerlies and a return to this

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Last night's clusters were indeed a split between a renewed Azores ridge and low pressure 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018060412_240.

Good news for Eastern areas is the easterly wind looks set to abate... for a while. Later on, some clusters are keen to bring NE ridging back:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018060412_360.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

OPs this morning aren't great. GFS is positively vomit inducing to be honest.

GFSPANELEU00_240_1.png

A quick look at the postage stamps, and it doesn't really sit in with the general theme, and is by far the most unsettled (apart from P12 maybe). Looks like a few model headaches ahead though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 hours ago, cheese said:

Seems to have happened a lot in recent years with easterly winds predominating in June and as a result those of us in the east suffering from dullness. I suppose the only consolation is that we can get our own back in July and August. Bring on the south westerlies and a return to this

Yes vile here today, would like the wind to change from horrid easterly, does change next week at last, deep FI even better

gfs-0-198.pnggfs-0-372.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Well make what you want of this one from GFS at t240.. Quite a change in the upper air profile over Europe with the Atlantic jet into the heart of Euroland replacing weeks on end  of the flabby atmosphere dynamics that have been the dominant feature of UK/ Euro weather . Obviously changes ( slower evolutions ) will occur but I doubt to the speed of this extent, so I remain very wary of the latest GFS output for day 10.

C

GFSOPEU00_240_21.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Using the 500 mb anomaly charts and a quite definite shift from them, first showing over the weekend and continued . That is for the 500 mb flow to be trough dominated rather than ridge dominated. So quite a change. No major Atlantic development but a noticeable change in upper flow and consequently in that at the surface.

For me it shows the end of countless days of a surface flow off the N Sea, selfish perhaps, but thank goodness as it seems to have lasted for a long time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

With the 8-14 NOAA showing no real change from the 6-10 then it seems we have this upper pattern for 6-14 days at least?

I don't feel this is a knee jerk reaction but others may?

It is what the anomaly charts that I use have consistently shown and in the 6-14 day range, when consistent are usually not far off the upper air pattern. Beyond 14 days I hardly ever venture. And yes I am delighted to be shut of the almost non stop cloud and lowered temperatures on about 2 of 3 days for well over 10 days. Best I check to make sure I have the time scale correct.

Edited by johnholmes
Just my personal view on the next 2 weeks
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

For me it shows the end of countless days of a surface flow off the N Sea, selfish perhaps, but thank goodness as it seems to have lasted for a long time.

 

 

Agreed, it's a blessing in disguise, those of us across the eastern half of the uk are cheesed off with the cool murky north sea filth..even though there has also been some summery weather at times too..looking at the GEFS 00z mean, there are signs the azores high could be ridging in around mid june or soon after.:smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
43 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Well make what you want of this one from GFS at t240.. Quite a change in the upper air profile over Europe with the Atlantic jet into the heart of Euroland replacing weeks on end  of the flabby atmosphere dynamics that have been the dominant feature of UK/ Euro weather . Obviously changes ( slower evolutions ) will occur but I doubt to the speed of this extent, so I remain very wary of the latest GFS output for day 10.

C

GFSOPEU00_240_21.png

Conversely , the Canadian Global Model indicates a less dynamic change in the weather pattern than the GFS. Think this maybe be more on the mark at day 10 with a slower evolution . Of course time will tell .

 C

untitled.png

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