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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z is a tale of roughly two halves... largely warm through high res  into early low res with plenty of fine sunny weather and a few heavy showers dotted around..whereas most of low res is cooler and generally unsettled. 

GFSOPEU12_195_1.png

This is a very decent chart at 195hrs though Frosty. I think we've been spoilt recently- in many summers we would be crying out for a chart like that.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Remember this mean chart from the ECM ensembles yesterday T240:

EDM1-240.GIF

Here's the chart from the GEFS ensemble mean for the same time T216:

gens-21-1-216.png?12

I think the horror show has been averted!  The GEFS chart consistent with other 12z output and the change to a westerly over a ridging Azores high will actually give decent weather to more of the country so I'm all for it.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Ecm is also fairly benign this evening....thankfully that nasty low that was shown last night looks to be headed into biscay rather than slap bang over the uk. With this set up it just looks like a continuation of the status quo for a while longer.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

yes as a summer lover im very happy with EC and UKM this evening, the temps will be warm for most with some storms with a bit of luck.

It does look like the Atlantic will begin to push towards day 9 onwards and thats a trend that cant be ignored but no complaints from me so far, its been a fabulous May and likely first week of June.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes as a summer lover im very happy with EC and UKM this evening, the temps will be warm for most with some storms with a bit of luck.

It does look like the Atlantic will begin to push towards day 9 onwards and thats a trend that cant be ignored but no complaints from me so far, its been a fabulous May and likely first week of June.

It may (hopefully) be a weak attack with the Azores high building in soon after.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The ECM 12z spells hope whereas yesterday's warned of the danger of opening a Pandora's box of hellish weather.   Yes the Scandi blocking is on the decline, but today's runs are all supportive to an extent of a ridge from the Azores taking hold.  This thread all about the longer term prospects, so here's ECM at T168:

ECM1-168.GIF?03-0

T240 showing battle with high pressure from the south and a low pressure system to the northwest at T240, high pressure likely to win this one. I think:

ECM1-240.GIF?03-0

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It may (hopefully) be a weak attack with the Azores high building in soon after.

Yes there is a big surge of energy in the Atlantic later on the EC tonight so a breakdown from the continental airmass that has dominated for so long is likely imo, we'll hope its shorlived..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The latest 2 Ecm runs end rather differently don't they.:whistling:.I prefer the 00z.

240_mslp500.png.3a2a529c49d5d64fe471a387ae083a82.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening! Well the dead Atlantic continues with a very slack weather pattern over the Uk in the foreseeable future....very warm at times with light winds , but still potential for some intense thundery downpours as we head into the days ahead, impossible to predict at this point but the threat is there so watch the Netweather radar!

slack.png

slackx.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Morning all,

Runs very similar again this morning with the slack pressure patterns over the UK. I actually quite like the end part of the GFS run today, which makes repeated efforts to ridge the Azores high in:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018060400/gfs-0-240.png?0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS rubbish until about 234, when Azores high comes in, before that yuk

gfs-0-234.png

Does this not belong in the moan thread though?

Rubbish for who? And why is it rubbish out to 234? Gfs shows some lovely weather for many this week ..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does this not belong in the moan thread though?

Rubbish for who? And why is it rubbish out to 234? Gfs shows some lovely weather for many this week ..

 

Agree with Northwestsnow here. Regional forecast for my area is sunny every day this week and in 20s.

strange post.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does this not belong in the moan thread though?

Rubbish for who? And why is it rubbish out to 234? Gfs shows some lovely weather for many this week ..

 

Agreed, I counted quite a few largely fine days with temperatures into the 20's celsius well before T+234 hours..far from rubbish!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Does this not belong in the moan thread though?

Rubbish for who? And why is it rubbish out to 234? Gfs shows some lovely weather for many this week ..

 

Good for the west, bad for everywhere else. 

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GFS was stop on as early as Friday/Saturday with its outlook for this week and has done very well with its cloud forecasts. Looks like we've got about two hours before the cloud comes in here, tomorrow looks a write of for sun so hopefully something better by the middle of the day as some drier air gets dragged into the easterly.

Further out still some uncertainties, will it? won't it? Re the Azores high ridging up north east to us or will some energy from the Atlantic finally come our way from the North West, looks like another day or two will be required to confirm.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

GFS was stop on as early as Friday/Saturday with its outlook for this week and has done very well with its cloud forecasts. Looks like we've got about two hours before the cloud comes in here, tomorrow looks a write of for sun so hopefully something better by the middle of the day as some drier air gets dragged into the easterly.

Further out still some uncertainties, will it? won't it? Re the Azores high ridging up north east to us or will some energy from the Atlantic finally come our way from the North West, looks like another day or two will be required to confirm.

Forecast say there will be less cloud tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland

The BBC forecast expects high pressure to North of us to win out and the low to sink towards Bay of Biscay. As a result pleasantly warm everywhere and a bit more unsettled further south.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

The BBC forecast expects high pressure to North of us to win out and the low to sink towards Bay of Biscay. As a result pleasantly warm everywhere and a bit more unsettled further south.

Let’s hope we see all this Northern Blocking that we have had since March appear next winter ,extremely unusual to see Northern  Blocking last for so long .

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Looks like cloudy mild according to GFS 06z with at times potentially frustrating surface condition defying the synoptics continuing through into next week until a horror show appears in FI with a bullseye low becoming anchored over the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

It's really sick how many sunshine hours there has been last 3 weeks, a fantastic heat wave with record may. For now Both GFS/ECM shows a transition to more rainy and windy conditions when we go into the middle of june. For sure the warm conditions can't last forever

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
49 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

It's really sick how many sunshine hours there has been last 3 weeks, a fantastic heat wave with record may. For now Both GFS/ECM shows a transition to more rainy and windy conditions when we go into the middle of june. For sure the warm conditions can't last forever

A deterioration was always likely into June, though the duration of this settled spell did take me by surprise slightly as I thought we'd see the deterioration closer to the turn of the month. 

Still, I've seen little evidence to suggest that May won't be the best that we see of summer. This isn't to say we will not continue to see settled or even plumey spells as we progress over the next 11-12 weeks. 

It won't be hard, but we're likely to see things turn a lot more unsettled over the next month... And I don't think many people can grumble at that, given what we've enjoyed thus far. 

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