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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

850s aren’t always a good indicator though....people play this game in winter!

The North Sea is still pretty cool, so a brisk easterly, especially one set in for this amount of time will inevitably drag a lot of cloud on. Earlier in this spell it was decent here, but the last 2/3 days has been a tad cloudy for large parts of the day. The thing that has made it horrid is the 75-80% humidity we now have, 22c is feeling pretty rank to be honest. Much preferred the other warm spells in April and early May that had gin clear skies and low humidity.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 5

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?01-18

 

Day 6

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?01-18

The GFS and UKMO perhaps suggesting that winds will start to veer more south easterly from the middle of next week onwards with a stronger draw of warm air from the south. So potentially after a couple of cooler and cloudier days to start the week we should hopefully see temperatures rise again into the mid or possibly high twenties. It still looks humid though with the shower risk probably increasing again.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It does seem at in the 6-10 day period we're going to see the jet steam move south from its outrageous position so far, here T144, T240 from GFS 12z:

gfs-5-144.png?12

gfs-5-240.png?12

But if this is the 'return of the westerlies' then they look innocuous and temporary.  GFS still keen to ridge the Azores high NE, here T300:

gfs-0-300.png?12

GEM ends the run promisingly too:

gem-0-240.png?12

So to sum up my reading of the 12s so far, a settled week next week (sunshine variable on location) maybe more a NW SE split for a while and signs more promising thereafter, to be confirmed or not by subsequent runs no doubt.

Edit, worth including the GEFS mean at T240, also supporting the Azores high still having an influence.

gens-21-1-240.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC coming up with a bit of a change from the 00z run, still looks warm out to 168 but could be thundery as the azores high doesn't get to ridge in at 120.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is dodgy compared with the Ukmo run! Not looking as warm or settled.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Yes the ECM 12z run does look quite different to recent output, start here at T192

ECM1-192.GIF?01-0

All looks a bit of a mess quite frankly.  Moving on to T216:

ECM1-216.GIF?01-0

Leaves the UK in a slack messy pattern, no Atlantic for sure, banked, but could it turn out better in the long run?

Here's T240 chart:

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC coming up with a bit of a change from the 00z run, still looks warm out to 168 but could be thundery as the azores high doesn't get to ridge in at 120.

Good news is the Ecm 12z doesn't show any sign of the atlantic getting organised and as with the 00z, the azores high looks like it would build / ridge in subsequently..it's a preety good run actually with plenty of high pressure, warmth and some sunshine, and a further risk of thundery activity.:smile:

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes its an OK run all in all, temps above average for early June so possibly 20-25 , likely warmer towards the SE - cooler in the far NW but even here hopefully mainly dry. I suppose thundery activity could be possible with pressure around 1015MB as we head into next weekend.

I suppose its potentially wrong with it being so different to ukmo at 144.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes its an OK run all in all, temps above average for early June so possibly 20-25 , likely warmer towards the SE - cooler in the far NW but even here hopefully mainly dry. I suppose thundery activity could be possible with pressure around 1015MB as we head into next weekend.

I suppose its potentially wrong with it being so different to ukmo at 144.

 

It could be a lot worse, could be cool unsettled zonal cr*p..all in all, very decent for early summer for many of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

It’s a very interesting start to summer and much different from what we’ve been used to for a good few years all down to around the solar minimum period from what I’ve read. So will we continue to see high pressure shaping Ne from the Azores or will it position northwards at some point. The difference between very wet and very warm. If it wasn’t for this nuisance 8 thing I’d have much more confidence in more of the former:D

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I think the ecm would likely be slightly unsettled, pressure is low enough for showers to form.....Ukmo keeps the warmer feed and pressure that bit higher, and with an ESE feed probably send temps back to the 25-27c range. The good thing is no Atlantic onslaught whatever way you look at things!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC mean keeps temps above average out o day 10 although there are signs now that the air will become more Atlantic than continental longer term,

Plenty of nice warm weather to enjoy in the meantime, with some thunderstorms to boot.

If i were picky i would like to see a move towards sending the jet a little further north day 6 onwards-..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Ukmo and ecm both have little spoiler low coming into play by the end of next week - could bring some showers or longer spells of rain into the U.K. the gfs op doesn’t do much with it, but plenty of ensemble members have it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Good news is the models..especially the Gfs 00z show high pressure building in next week with plenty of warm and sunny weather across the uk.

And stav on radio 5 live said it too so it must be true!:D?️☀️

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As alluded to, the GFS does build pressure back somewhat before finally breaking down for a while post day 8-9.

Might there be light at the end of this humid tunnel..

GFSOPEU00_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As alluded to, the GFS does build pressure back somewhat before finally breaking down for a while post day 8-9.

Might there be light at the end of this humid tunnel..

GFSOPEU00_240_1.png

I wouldn't bank on it, it has been regularly showing some sort of breakdown at that sort of time scale, only to keep backing down. I think you may get your wish next week but not in the way the GFS is showing- there may be days of heavier cloud like today from these annoying shallow lows that seem to keep forming. If the ECM is correct we will still keep the continental influence, however.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Anyway, looking at the GEFS 00z mean, longer term, the azores high looks influential and the jet is well to the north of the uk.:smile:

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

And back to the models

For what it's worth here are the 500 mb anomaly charts and my comments in my file about them

Saturday 2 june

 

Ec-gfs and changes on ec with showing again a cut off low and main ridging ne of this = uk and Europe; gfs more like its chart above with stretched ridging from well west into Europe towards Scandinavia including uk but no cut off s of it

Noaa 6-10 shows some ridging ne of uk still, less than chart above but a more w’ly pattern showing. On its 8-14 the ridge has gone and a weak trough shows over uk area from an overall faily slack westerly

Overall then not a major pattern change, and again it may only be a blip but it does, and this fits with the charts over the past few days, a tendency for a more westerly based upper air pattern. But no major atlantic pattern showing so far.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows more of the same summery weather next week with plenty of sunshine and following a few quieter days, the risk of thundery showers returns but temperatures next week are widely into the low / mid 20's celsius range..very nice...the azores high then ridges in with less showers and more in the way of dry and bright weather..there is a cooler unsettled blip through low res, especially further north but the azores high returns, at least for southern uk later in the run.:smile:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, weatherguru14 said:

same reason you go off topic  a lot of the time :)  anyway this mist and murk is dreadful. I hope this nice weather you keep predicting  we get sunshine with it.

Ay, and EC 00Z looks not great, all depends on where you live, but for here absolute east cloud fest, all next week

ECM1-168.GIF?02-12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean doesn't look bad at all, indeed especially across southern uk it looks generally warm and apart from some more thundery showers developing next week, longer term it's  predominantly fine weather thanks to the azores ridge influence which grows even stronger from around mid june..northern britain becomes less settled and that bit cooler than further south but it doesn't look to me as though a full on atlantic onslaught is on the way...far from it!:smile:

21_342_500mb.png

21_366_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Preety good ukmo 12z this evening, sure there is a risk of thundery showers at times but equally plenty of dry and sunny weather...and generally warm or indeed becoming very warm and humid with a very continental flavour...no sign of the continuing blocked pattern weakening even by T+144 hours..the jet still way to the north!☀️

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield

This current pattern appears deadset on reloading high pressure from the Azores. To those far more technical in their knowledge than I, how do you see this current set up breaking down? Talk of the MJO and tropical forcing etc... Is the recent and current weather a direct influence from that? 

In previous years, when the Azores and Scandinavian highs connect, we've had a toppler low diving over the UK that then becomes trapped between highs and leaving us in days even weeks of being stuck in a trough. 

This year seems so different, the jet seemingly loving it's trip way up to the north, almost so much It's going to be fascinating seeing how it all breaks down. 

Perhaps I'm a pessimist and can't imagine the prospect of a long anticyclonic dominated summer, but just maybe this year's shaping up to be just that!

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