Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Will Whittaker]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

everything still looks ok, it just seems like we have been stuck in this pattern forever, I’m guessing some people (east coast dwellers especially) would like some sort of change now!

 

Norfolk seems to have been fogbound for a week or two.  And looks to be for the coming week. Very depressing. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows plenty more summery weather continuing across most of the uk (away from some cooler misty east coasts) well into early june and following this week's thundery theme, it looks like becoming generally more settled with high pressure in control throughout next week with potentially plenty of sunshine and warmth. Beyond that there are signs of change to more unsettled atlantic conditions although there is a little support for the blocked summery very warm spell to continue through to mid june.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not great again for this region, many runs now bring the NE'ly back on Sunday, FI still I suppose but hate E/NE'lys

[Captain Shortwave]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

everything still looks ok, it just seems like we have been stuck in this pattern forever, I’m guessing some people (east coast dwellers especially) would like some sort of change now!

 

Across the board things improve in some ways in the east of Thursday with mid twenties possible even close to the NE coast (possibly) on Thursday and Friday.

   

Temperature variations caused more by shower distribution, in fact that is why I refer to the improvement in certain aspects as there could be a lot of slow moving thundery downpours.

UKMO looks decent from Thursday onwards with variable winds becoming south easterly into the following week.

   

 

GFS.......

   

It drifts that low eastwards and starts to interact with a cold pool over Scandinavia which swings the winds back to the NE, in fact there are a couple of weak fronts which push across the north sea to bring patchy rain and drizzle as opposed to the thundery downpours of late. GEM agrees to a degree and of course the ECM this morning was similar in evolution to where the UKMO is sitting. 

 

Edited May 29, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is looking very summery well into early june across the uk, as did the 6z earlier..it shows increasing high pressure influence and a continuation of the generally warm / very warm weather most of us have become used to..hopefully even the cool / cloudy / misty/ foggy east coastal areas will see the sun again soon! In the meantime, more warm and humid conditions to come this week with thunderstorms in places but also some dry and sunny weather too.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not great again for this region, many runs now bring the NE'ly back on Sunday, FI still I suppose but hate E/NE'lys

You should live this side of the Peak/Pennines to really experience a flow off the N Sea, in any month.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

whoa, a SW'ly, FI on EC actually not bad, as long as that low dosen't get too close

[A.J]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

whoa, a SW'ly, FI on EC actually not bad, as long as that low dosen't get too close

I wouldn't mind that....some interesting weather for a change....anything to change this cloudy monotonous nonsense my locale has experienced this past week

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You missed all the storms AJ? shame because Penkridge was battered

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z, judging by the uppers (850's) I see plenty more warm / potentially very warm weather to come inland depending on sunshine amounts with an ongoing risk of thunderstorms but plenty of dry weather too. Even at the end of the run with that atlantic low / trough getting closer, the atlantic still looks very sluggish / disorganised with plenty of high pressure / ridging across the W / NW atlantic.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Not sure I like the overall evolution of the ecm tonight, just smacks of low pressure getting stuck over the U.K. for days in the following frames! Thankfully just one run and a long way off at present, so let’s keep an eye out and see what we get in the days ahead. Staying on the warm side for another week looks nailed on though.

[A.J]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

You missed all the storms AJ? shame because Penkridge was battered

yup.....might have been possibly 2 cloud farts, but they might well have been of my own making...lol.....both ARPEGE & WRF make little of tonights/tomorrow feature here and the NMM is laughably wrong already....still,, I live in hope! 

Edited May 29, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[damianslaw]

Mmm not looking quite as settled as I was thinking yesterday, high pressure anchoring itself in an orientated position that would enable low heights and trough activity to languish and stay in situ over central UK in the days ahead, some places could see quite a bit of rain in the days ahead, others very little, more so in the far NW - place to be at the moment. This is a highly abnormal weather pattern, to see troughs and shallow low pressure features moving in from the south, and push north west is all quite odd. Classic thundery outbreak torrential storm territory.

As we move into early June signs heights will retrogress somewhat, and further slow moving trough activity will persist to our SW, but perhaps a strong ridge building to the east enabling a plume of sorts to hit SE parts, so a possible rise in temps again - but temporary.

Longer term - increasing signs the atlantic will eventually break through, but not in zonal gusto, more like cyclonic slumberness, with heights sitting to the NW - not a good summer pattern.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

So that classic summer we've all been dreaming of doesn't look like its going to happen? Unless the Atlantic is going to be just a temporary break.  

[Derecho]

31 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

So that classic summer we've all been dreaming of doesn't look like its going to happen? Unless the Atlantic is going to be just a temporary break.  

How can you make a forecast for the rest of the summer when its May 29th? lol

The 18z looks really good still and the showers become less widespread after Friday/Saturday whilst still remaining warm. Even the best summers can have a poor week of weather within them, this is the UK after all....

[Will Whittaker]

6 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Across the board things improve in some ways in the east of Thursday with mid twenties possible even close to the NE coast (possibly) on Thursday and Friday.

   

Temperature variations caused more by shower distribution, in fact that is why I refer to the improvement in certain aspects as there could be a lot of slow moving thundery downpours.

UKMO looks decent from Thursday onwards with variable winds becoming south easterly into the following week.

   

 

GFS.......

   

It drifts that low eastwards and starts to interact with a cold pool over Scandinavia which swings the winds back to the NE, in fact there are a couple of weak fronts which push across the north sea to bring patchy rain and drizzle as opposed to the thundery downpours of late. GEM agrees to a degree and of course the ECM this morning was similar in evolution to where the UKMO is sitting. 

 

We should have had this in January would have been legendary winter. Never mind these easterlies do get stuck. Dry but chilly. Not what is wanted tbh.  

[carinthian]

Morning all. If we look at the much broader NH 500mb chart for 240t you just get a picture of how unusual the pressure pattern is over Europe. Just one huge slack or flabby pressure gradient over the land mass and the continued amazing longevity of the presence of high pressure extending to the NW of the British Isles. So based on this chart , not much change. The NW of Britain doing well in the sunshine and above average temps and Southern Britain still at risk to thundery outbreaks triggered by the increasingly convective heat forces over the continent. Maybe as the June progresses plume conditions could bring some hot conditions from Iberia towards Southern Britain. Certainly a very interesting few months of weather synoptics you guys are experiencing. Much better than constant zonal Atlantic flow ( my view anyway ).

C

[Uncle_Barty]

8 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

How can you make a forecast for the rest of the summer when its May 29th? lol

The 18z looks really good still and the showers become less widespread after Friday/Saturday whilst still remaining warm. Even the best summers can have a poor week of weather within them, this is the UK after all....

Indeed. June 1976 was unsettled for a time.

[mb018538]

Ignore it, just an inflammatory pointless post!

Still lots of uncertainty this morning, but overall remaining warm. No sign of any Atlantic breakthrough either, so the split jet and very slow moving theme looks like rolling on for a while longer.

[Matthew.]

24 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Indeed. June 1976 was unsettled for a time.

If it wasn’t for the last week it wouldn’t have been anything special apart from how dry it was of course. 1940 however was spectacular throughout for sunshine and warmth

Edited May 30, 2018 by Matthew.

[Djdazzle]

24 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

If it wasn’t for the last week it wouldn’t have been anything special apart from how dry it was of course. 1940 however was spectacular throughout for sunshine and warmth

There was also a hot spell at the start of the month. I think you are underselling June 1976 a tad as it had a CET of 17.0 and no June has come close since to matching that.

[Summer Sun]

9 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

So that classic summer we've all been dreaming of doesn't look like its going to happen? Unless the Atlantic is going to be just a temporary break.  

Assuming the Atlantic does, of course, breakthrough it looks doubtful this morning on ECM with high pressure still the dominant feature

[northwestsnow]

Phew,! Much better 00z runs this morning from GFS/ECM with high pressure more dominant - potentially very warm as the low stalls in the Atlantic ala ECM.

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. If we look at the much broader NH 500mb chart for 240t you just get a picture of how unusual the pressure pattern is over Europe. Just one huge slack or flabby pressure gradient over the land mass and the continued amazing longevity of the presence of high pressure extending to the NW of the British Isles. So based on this chart , not much change. The NW of Britain doing well in the sunshine and above average temps and Southern Britain still at risk to thundery outbreaks triggered by the increasingly convective heat forces over the continent. Maybe as the June progresses plume conditions could bring some hot conditions from Iberia towards Southern Britain. Certainly a very interesting few months of weather synoptics you guys are experiencing. Much better than constant zonal Atlantic flow ( my view anyway ).

C

The ECM 850hpa temperature positive deviation at 240t sort of confirms the longevity of above average temps, especially in the NW of the British Isles. Nearly off the scales in some places !

C

[Singularity]

 

 

 

So comparing GFS 18z (left) with GFS 00z (right), we see a slightly faster trough off the East U.S. Coast and this leads to interaction with the mid-N. Atlantic trough that initiates disruption of that feature with no more progress being made toward the UK. Then, the merged troughs initiate a revival of the jet pattern that has dominated during recent weeks; storms tracking from SW of Greenland to Svalbard and often on across the Arctic Ocean from there.

 

ECM's not sped that near-US trough up as much, but it still gets close enough to affect the mid-N. Atlantic one. Having said that, the extent to which trough disruption has been added suggests that at least in part, this is simply the models correcting for something overlooked beforehand. 

The usual caveats apply of course; the near-US trough could be adjusted slower again, and/or the mid-N. Atlantic trough disruption reduced.

Even so, it's amazing to be contemplating a very warm continental flow for much or all of next week, having only very recently moved out of a lengthy spell of such conditions (albeit not for all of us, I know).