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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

On other aspects, who thinks these two highs are going to merge on the ECM 12z, T168?

Yeah it does. Nice chart hopefully blocking off the Atlantic from infringing into the UK unfortunately it doesn't look particularly strong but with reasonable uppers as well it looks quite pleasant 

ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That last chart Frosty, is what we should all want! not E'lys, or even worse NE'lys

As captain said earlier we might lose the mist from June as we end up in a col and variable wind directions so looking better after the next few days Atlantic

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Please forgive me, I have no knowledge of the weather, I've only been on here for 13 years but the Ecm 12z shows charts that some people might like!...:D:shok::whistling:

 

I wouldn't worry about it :D Ice Man and cheese are notorious on here for posting negative drivel without much evidence to back it up. More interested in moaning! I suppose it keeps the forum diverse in its personalities!

I see no ramping on here at the moment anyway. We are in a remarkable spell of weather right now and long may it continue. The charts show no real end in sight to the settled conditions with the odd thunderstorm to keep us on our toes. The only ones I feel bad for are eastern coastal counties who may hang on to the sea haar and thus experience lower temps and gloomy skies.

I think some need a re-education as to what a weather 'ramp' actually is!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Frosty you are a glass half full poster but you are not a ramper. Nothing wrong with a bit of optimism - I and many others enjoy your posts, so keep it up!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Was going to reply robustly to some comments above but decided not to. Run out of chocolate teapots. 

ECM seems stuck. So here's the JMA at T192:

J192-21.GIF?28-12

Try telling me the UK isn't going  to have some fun with that set up.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, I don't understand the negativity, I can't remember a better late spring than this..another cracking BH Monday too! and it's set to carry on into early summer too..bring it on!:D☀️?️⛈️

That's the thing. It wasn't cracking everywhere mate. Hour of sun ain't much cop . We've got this to look forward to most of the week at best

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

That's the thing. It wasn't cracking everywhere mate. Hour of sun ain't much cop . We've got this to look forward to most of the week at best

yes, not great certainly tomorrow for our locations, better for weekend though maybe?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

That's the thing. It wasn't cracking everywhere mate. Hour of sun ain't much cop . We've got this to look forward to most of the week at best

Sorry to hear that mate, it was a very good day across many areas and that's what I meant really..looking ahead, the general pattern still looks great, miles better than cool zonality in my opinion.:)

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The problem is posting charts without an explanation is that it just doesnt present the full picture, some of those ECM charts for Wed/Thurs look great on the surface how add in some of the other details and reality is quite a bit different. With a moist flow over the north sea both Wednesday and Thursday will see a lot of cloud that will be very stubborn to move away from all but the west and maybe part of Wales and the south coast, a number of places likely to stay in low double digits where that cloud persists.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Perhaps some early indications of where were heading next after this current humid and quite cloudy easterly flow. And thats the Azores high coming into play cutting off the easterly flow but maintaining the very warm conditions for most. One thing for sure is the Atlantic seems very sluggish to non existant at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The problem is posting charts without an explanation is that it just doesnt present the full picture

You should visit the short range model output discussion, knocker always gives plenty of explanation / detail.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

Perhaps some early indications of where were heading next after this current humid and quite cloudy easterly flow. And thats the Azores high coming into play cutting off the easterly flow but maintaining the very warm conditions for most. One thing for sure is the Atlantic seems very sluggish to non existant at the moment.

That would be better for more of the U.K. The hope then would be for the high to drift east allowing a plume to develop.

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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You should visit the short range model output discussion, knocker always gives plenty of explanation / detail.:)

I don’t need that, plenty of others do  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don’t need that, plenty of others do  

Why did you complain about it then?..even ive been known to describe what the charts ive posted are showing

Anyway, the models are showing plenty more warm / very warm weather with plenty of sunshine on most days as well as scattered thunderstorms.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

In the reliable timeframe - its more of the same, strong robust heights stretched through the NE atlantic and through Scandi, and an upper low languishing to our south - hence a sustained easterly flow. North and west will see the best of the sunshine and most likely continue dry, southern and eastern parts plagued more by cloud at times especially east coast - classic sea fret and haar conditions, all very normal at this time of year. Indeed easterlies are at their yearly maxim in late May/early June. 

Chance of further thundery outbreaks in southern and central parts, with an injection of humidity and instability caused by the upper low to the south.

Staying warm for all, but not quite the heat of recent days. Low-mid 20 maxima, rather than anything nudging the high 20's - still very good for the time of year, more akin to what we would expect in late July/early August.

Longer term, I've been looking at the jetstream profile, signs a slow breakdown, with the jet taking on a more amplified flow, with the upper low perhaps interacting with the main northern arm in time, which would produce a plume of sorts thanks to the influence of the azores high, but then the atlantic will finally move through. So a role reversal eventually with the NW more exposed to rain and wind and cooler conditions, the south and east warmer and drier - more normal service then, and this echos Met Office thoughts. Until then, another week to ten days of generally very good weather, but expect to see the longer range model outputs begin to show a more atlantic influence once we move into the second week of June... again this is par for the course in June - the 'return of the westerlies'.

 

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29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Why did you complain about it then?..even ive been known to describe what the charts ive posted are showing

Anyway, the models are showing plenty more warm / very warm weather with plenty of sunshine on most days as well as scattered thunderstorms.:)

It was a general comment, I’ve noticed that goes on here and wasn’t aimed at anyone otherwise I would have quoted them

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

It was a general comment I’ve noticed that goes on here and wasn’t aimed at anyone otherwise I would have quoted them

Phew that's a relief, I thought you were having a go at me..:whistling:

Anyhoo, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows plenty of high pressure and very warm weather further ahead!?️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 hours ago, cheese said:

No offence, but your 'living memory' is about as reliable as a chocolate tea pot. 

It's been an excellent May all things considered (certainly not the best in living memory), but that doesn't mean I won't complain about poor weather when it does occur, even if it's against a backdrop of generally nice weather.

Depends on whose memory we're talking about- if you can't remember 1992 then it's certainly the best by some distance. I was born in 1987 so can't remember the weather in 1992 at all. This month has been a lot better than 2008 and 1998 in these parts.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

In the reliable timeframe - its more of the same, strong robust heights stretched through the NE atlantic and through Scandi, and an upper low languishing to our south - hence a sustained easterly flow. North and west will see the best of the sunshine and most likely continue dry, southern and eastern parts plagued more by cloud at times especially east coast - classic sea fret and haar conditions, all very normal at this time of year. Indeed easterlies are at their yearly maxim in late May/early June. 

Chance of further thundery outbreaks in southern and central parts, with an injection of humidity and instability caused by the upper low to the south.

Staying warm for all, but not quite the heat of recent days. Low-mid 20 maxima, rather than anything nudging the high 20's - still very good for the time of year, more akin to what we would expect in late July/early August.

Longer term, I've been looking at the jetstream profile, signs a slow breakdown, with the jet taking on a more amplified flow, with the upper low perhaps interacting with the main northern arm in time, which would produce a plume of sorts thanks to the influence of the azores high, but then the atlantic will finally move through. So a role reversal eventually with the NW more exposed to rain and wind and cooler conditions, the south and east warmer and drier - more normal service then, and this echos Met Office thoughts. Until then, another week to ten days of generally very good weather, but expect to see the longer range model outputs begin to show a more atlantic influence once we move into the second week of June... again this is par for the course in June - the 'return of the westerlies'.

 

Could we leave it until the 3rd week of June please, I'm on holiday from the 10th!

Watching the charts nervously now they're coming in to range. I am after all, the bloke who went on holiday at the exact time the summers of 1976 & 1996 ended, so I have form.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
32 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Could we leave it until the 3rd week of June please, I'm on holiday from the 10th!

Watching the charts nervously now they're coming in to range. I am after all, the bloke who went on holiday at the exact time the summers of 1976 & 1996 ended, so I have form.

You’d better cancel then!

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

In the reliable timeframe - its more of the same, strong robust heights stretched through the NE atlantic and through Scandi, and an upper low languishing to our south - hence a sustained easterly flow. North and west will see the best of the sunshine and most likely continue dry, southern and eastern parts plagued more by cloud at times especially east coast - classic sea fret and haar conditions, all very normal at this time of year. Indeed easterlies are at their yearly maxim in late May/early June. 

Chance of further thundery outbreaks in southern and central parts, with an injection of humidity and instability caused by the upper low to the south.

Staying warm for all, but not quite the heat of recent days. Low-mid 20 maxima, rather than anything nudging the high 20's - still very good for the time of year, more akin to what we would expect in late July/early August.

Longer term, I've been looking at the jetstream profile, signs a slow breakdown, with the jet taking on a more amplified flow, with the upper low perhaps interacting with the main northern arm in time, which would produce a plume of sorts thanks to the influence of the azores high, but then the atlantic will finally move through. So a role reversal eventually with the NW more exposed to rain and wind and cooler conditions, the south and east warmer and drier - more normal service then, and this echos Met Office thoughts. Until then, another week to ten days of generally very good weather, but expect to see the longer range model outputs begin to show a more atlantic influence once we move into the second week of June... again this is par for the course in June - the 'return of the westerlies'.

 

Judging by the overnight run from the Ecm and subsequently the lack of posts for over a 12 hr period it would appear this summation may be right on the money. ☔ :help:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
29 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Judging by the overnight run from the Ecm and subsequently the lack of posts for over a 12 hr period it would appear this summation may be right on the money. ☔ :help:

Nothing wrong with the Ecm 00z, plenty of very warm weather from what I can see. More storms, more sunshine, more above average temps..beats cool zonality for sure!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

everything still looks ok, it just seems like we have been stuck in this pattern forever, I’m guessing some people (east coast dwellers especially) would like some sort of change now!

 

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