Model output discussion 14/04/18

[northwestsnow]

MUCH better 00z runs from GFS/UKMO , now keeping the trough to our west and prolonging the heat -

Tricky evolution for the models but less impact from the low this morning.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z looks very summery this morning, lots of high pressure, plenty of sunshine, very blocked and warm / very warm with temps widely into the low to mid 20's celsius..lovely jubbly!

[Frosty.]

As northwestsnow said, much better 00z runs from the Gfs / Ukmo which both look really summery this morning, the Ukmo charts below indicate it becoming very warm with plenty of sunshine and light winds but a thunderstorm risk too, especially further south..

Edited May 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z for the next week or so..it looks very good to me if you like very warm summery weather with sunshine and if you're a thunderstorm enthusiast..it's right up your alley too!

[Frosty.]

Another very warm Bank Holiday..seriously, what's going on with the British weather !!..amazing stuff and looking further ahead, the Gfs 00z looks very impressively summery I think most would agree!..can't hide my enthusiasm for summery weather!

[carinthian]

As Frosty keeps showing, these unusual interesting charts keep cropping up this year, especially for the UK. Super cold in early March to super warm through much of May. The easily controlled Atlantic for much 2018 is certainly putting much of the British Isles in a Continental type regime ! (SO FAR ) but I think the majority on here , love it . Certainly enjoying the weather , especially up north on my visit to UK and not be subjected to endless days of wind blowing off the North Atlantic. A return to Sussex this weekend and more heat and a thunderstorm thrown in for good measure. Like being back in Austria!

C

Edited May 26, 2018 by carinthian

[Frosty.]

For the most part, high pressure dominates the Gfs 6z although during the next week or so there are some thunderstorms, mainly further south but plenty of dry and sunny weather too. As for temperatures, most of high res shows generally warm / very warm conditions, the warmest further s / se..there is a cooler blip but then it becomes warm again and further into June stays blocked warm and anticyclonic..hopefully June will carry on much as most of May has..summery! 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the week ahead, most of the uk will be summery with warm / very warm weather and plenty of sunshine but across central and especially southern areas an ongoing or even an increasing risk of thunderstorms, both homegrown and imported from france. Further ahead the GEFS 6z mean indicates further blocked but generally settled with high pressure in control through the end of may and well into early june with the jet staying way to the north.

Edited May 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z shows the messy evolution predicted over the next week or so might transform into a more warm settled pattern, here to T192:

Which leads to this at T240:

Roll on summer 

 

[Frosty.]

High pressure firmly in charge even next weekend extending right through the following week on the Gfs 12z operational..really loving this blocked / summery late spring pattern which looks like extending into early summer too!..As for the nearer timeframe, warming up further with plenty of sunshine but some thunderstorms continuing to break out across southern areas and also drift up from france with a very continental feel to our weather.

Edited May 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[Derecho]

After a hiccup with the 12z's and 18z's yesterday, things look much better with the cool air associated with the low pressure in midweek hanging back further west.

Today in Southampton has also been a cracking day with temperatures upto 26C and a sunny afternoon too. June 2012 this aint , with high pressure staying in control for the next week according to the 12z. Though the UKMO 12z still looks iffy

Fingers crossed the storms deliver tonight... and for the rest of the BH.

[Frosty.]

If you like it very warm with sunshine and a risk of thunderstorms..the Ecm 12z will delight you, really continental feel to our weather from tomorrow and throughout next week..

Edited May 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Early June looks very warm and settled under high pressure..great Ecm 12z run for summery weather!

 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope so Frosty, because GFS is pants, 15C max next saturday rubbish

[Snowyowl9]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hope so Frosty, because GFS is pants, 15C max next saturday rubbish

Too much of a NEly flow like yesterday most of the week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Too much of a NEly flow like yesterday most of the week.

Ay, bring on the SW'lys

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All. So the Atlantic remains dead for the forseable future and I would imagine Scotland  have had there driest period for some time. The operational model's have been absolutely useless as of late  ,but with a blocking pattern this is nothing new. If I had to have a stab at a forecast for the next ten days well a very similar setup  ,risk of thundery downpours for southern Britain  drier and more settled further north and never no heatwave for the uk. 

[Mike Poole]

At T144, it's a dog's dinner but at least it's a nice one. Here's the main models ECM, GFS and UKMO:

All have jet well north but a problematic low to the SW.  Leading to interesting weather for the UK, warm but with thunderstorms particularly for the south. 

 

Edited May 26, 2018 by Mike Poole

[matty007]

I'm sure I'll get flak for this, but I'm a bit disappointed by the weather the last few days. Good temperatures, but largely ruined by high winds and quite a bit of cloud. This was the case today especially. Very strong sun and a base temperature of 25c, but it felt more like 18-19c in the high wind. A little disappointing compared to what looked on offer a few days ago. Hugely downgraded to be honest. It's certainly not bad, sure, but a little underwhelming to what we could of had. 

[Scorcher]

36 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I'm sure I'll get flak for this, but I'm a bit disappointed by the weather the last few days. Good temperatures, but largely ruined by high winds and quite a bit of cloud. This was the case today especially. Very strong sun and a base temperature of 25c, but it felt more like 18-19c in the high wind. A little disappointing compared to what looked on offer a few days ago. Hugely downgraded to be honest. It's certainly not bad, sure, but a little underwhelming to what we could of had. 

'Hugely downgraded' from what exactly? There were one or two runs showing some really high temps but they were the exception rather than the rule.

It was always going to be breezy in such a setup as this, whether we had imported the really warm air or not.

If you expect extreme runs to verify every time you are going to be disappointed a lot.

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

'Hugely downgraded' from what exactly? There were one or two runs showing some really high temps but they were the exception rather than the rule.

It was always going to be breezy in such a setup as this, whether we had imported the really warm air or not.

If you expect extreme runs to verify every time you are going to be disappointed a lot.

I wouldn't exactly say I expect extreme. 

Fact is, even as little as 2-3 days ago, the forecast was extremely dry, sunny and low wind. Every time I look at the forecast, there's more rain, more cloud and the temps are declining. 2 days ago, Monday was forecast as 28c and sunny, now, 22c with wind, cloud and thunder etc. 

Look, I'm not saying this is bad weather. I would have bitten your arm off for this last year, but you can't argue that it has downgraded quite a lot. Not exactly the lovely settled, warm and sunny outlook it was looking. 

 

 

[Ice Man 85]

9 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I wouldn't exactly say I expect extreme. 

Fact is, even as little as 2-3 days ago, the forecast was extremely dry, sunny and low wind. Every time I look at the forecast, there's more rain, more cloud and the temps are declining. 2 days ago, Monday was forecast as 28c and sunny, now, 22c with wind, cloud and thunder etc. 

Look, I'm not saying this is bad weather. I would have bitten your arm off for this last year, but you can't argue that it has downgraded quite a lot. Not exactly the lovely settled, warm and sunny outlook it was looking. 

 

 

[matty007]

1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Probably true haha. 

[matty007]

A lot lot of lightning here. Virtually constant. And rolling thunder. Struggle to remember the last time I saw so much lightning. 

[northwestsnow]

Amazing ECM this morning if its heat and some storms you are after- high pressure in charge and temps in the low to mid 20s - pressure slack enough at times to bring thunderstorms i would imagine..

On the other hand GFS, while lovely in the medium term does retrogress the pattern sufficiently to allow for a northerly to pull down , so nothing conclusive longer term...

Be interesting if the background signals are supportive of a durable Greenland high..