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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
18 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Another poor May day? For the 2007 bank holiday temperatures around here were struggling to above 8C on the Monday with non stop heavy rain.

So where is the downgrade?, if you are expecting more for the month of May you are never going to be happy. Yes there will be storms but a lot of sunshine too but I think you are taking far too much of a negative slant on things.

 
7

11c and cloudy, is a bleddy big downgrade if you ask me. Anyway, moving on............

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Back to the models!! ECM clusters back to the "no idea" one cluster solution, and flicking through the individual ensembles, it is clear to see why.

There's a lot of possibilities beyond D9, but I'd sum them up in three main possibilities: 1. Azores High links to new Icelandic High to the west of a trough centred near the UK (pulling down cool northerlies towards the UK) or 2. Azores High links to Icelandic High to the east of an Atlantic trough (keeping us in a Swly or continental based flow, staying warm and fairly settled), or 3. Azores High and Icelandic High fail to link up, with weak Atlantic troughs moving between them towards the UK.

The GEFS members on the 00Z were much more towards option 1. ECM is probably euqally split between options 1 and 2, with option 3 the minor one.

The Sceuro block now looks like it's finished by D9, but some signs of a resurgence by D12/D13.

Retrogression starting to look more likely between D8 and D12, then. Oops!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

I think you are being quite liberal with those maxes i.e. picking out one gridpoint with most others around it a couple of C lower. I'm sorry but in these parts while it absolutely could be worse, and yes not unusual in late May, 14C (3-4C below average), heavily overcast and with occasional rain is poor.

Nah GFS is well known for underestimating maxes, it will probably still get upto 16C in Bouremouth today which isn't bad considering the cloud cover. In fact yesterday the rain band over the UK was forecast to be a lot more intense then what it currently is. Swings and roundabouts...

Locally some places may be unlucky but for many places the weather looks superb for late May

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A summery Gfs 6z operational with the emphasis on warm / very warm temperatures, a lot of dry and sunny weather and some thunderstorms / thundery rain at times, mainly further south but then after the first day or two in June it becomes generally settled with high pressure dominant at the end of the run.?️?️

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
16 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

11c and cloudy, is a bleddy big downgrade if you ask me. Anyway, moving on............

Yeah but one cool morning over Newbury doesn't mean we should downplay what is a great picture nationally for the next week (aside for the NE tomorrow).  We shouldn't focus on one particular day that was forecast to be cooler relative to recent days. For many other areas today the picture is good for May once again.

image.thumb.png.d84d439cb2e5d9eca7881d59f9906fdd.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Nah GFS is well known for underestimating maxes, it will probably still get upto 16C in Bouremouth today which isn't bad considering the cloud cover. In fact yesterday the rain band over the UK was forecast to be a lot more intense then what it currently is. Swings and roundabouts...

Locally some places may be unlucky but for many places the weather looks superb for late May

Still waiting for my 16C....fully plugged at 14C #Imnotawindupmerchantreally

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
On ‎18‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 16:50, carinthian said:

Sunny Blackpool. Get the high in the right place and can be scorching on the Fylde coast. Currently its warmer than SE coastal resorts. Hope it stays fine for your holiday.

 C

Well done Blackpool, one of todays hotspots at 23c. This set up is ripe for endless sunny days in the NW of England. Been here for 4 days and hardly seen a cloud !

C

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Such a stark difference between forecasts. BBC showing a lot of precipitation while Netweather is going virtually bone dry. 

 

 

E0E5C00D-D3E9-4C05-81B7-33C58512A792.png

357F95F3-A2A8-48E7-B303-387219DFBA16.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Tomorrows upper air temp profile (500mb level ) from the latest UKMO chart shows the  deepest cold upper air location. Any frontal activity should align along its axis from SW to NE. So I think based on this chart the rain zone looks to be from Humber towards SW Wales. The northern extent will be the forecasters problem at this stage . Maybe as far as South Lancashire and South Yorkshire. Further NW looks best again for dryness and sunshine. SE England maybe in for a better warmer day tomorrow. Regarding any further thundery troughs into the outlook period would be hard to locate at this stage  but UKMO met fax usually not far off the mark with -in 48 hour forecast period. 26 C to 27C in some favoured locations later this weekend still very much on the cards as well.

 C

untitled.png

The very latest fax chart for tomorrows still shows another pulse of cloud and associated precipitation to make some progress northwards. Looks like a very slow process and may fail to make much further North than shown on this chart. When you get a predominately horizonal Easterly wind sheer without much opposing vertical sheer close to the frontal boundary ( as in this case ) progress can be slowed and even retarded. See what this evening fax and model outputs indicate. Certainly been a great sunny week in much of North West England so far.

C

fax24s.gif

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The Meto forecast for the weekend just issued on Twitter is massively better than the models are currently indicating. 'Loads of sun' and 'Only a few Thunderstorms' with mid-high twenties widespread over all three days.....

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I always the political threads were the place for pointless point scoring....seems I was mistaken.............

Modelling both hi-res and medium res infers a summery outlook with potential for both unusually high temperatures in favoured spots as well as the potential for both home-grown surface based and imported elevated thunderstorms especially for southern districts....The concern re. the latter is decaying storms can morph into rather more mundane dynamic rainfall....time will tell

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

 

Modelling both hi-res and medium res infers a summery outlook with potential for both unusually high temperatures in favoured spots as well as the potential for both home-grown surface based and imported elevated thunderstorms especially for southern districts.

So far so good on the 12z runs...I must say the models look great..which is more than can be said of our pathetic spineless cricket team.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

I always the political threads were the place for pointless point scoring....seems I was mistaken.............

Modelling both hi-res and medium res infers a summery outlook with potential for both unusually high temperatures in favoured spots as well as the potential for both home-grown surface based and imported elevated thunderstorms especially for southern districts....The concern re. the latter is decaying storms can morph into rather more mundane dynamic rainfall....time will tell

2

Far from point-scoring if I'm honest, just differences of opinions and additional confusion, whilst, the back and forth conversations are probably best left off the forum, I think we all agree. My post requoted below kickstarted some of the discussions on this quiet weather day, I merely mentioned the vast differences between forecasted expectations and the actual weather received. The BBC forecasts and not simply their own were some 8 to 10c short of what was originally expected, only this morning. I noted such forecasts on the Beeb were routinely skipped past in favour of the more important weekend forecasts, but a forecast FAIL is a forecast #FAIL whichever whey they choose to paint it. See my post below for more on this total shambles of a forecast, which could indeed recur itself in the coming days. Not wanting to pee on the chips for people, this forthcoming weekend, but IF and when the crud comes in, you should drop your expected forecast maximums by some MARGIN, that would be my advice, as witnessed today in Newbury and many other parts down South.

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Quick look at the 12s in the semi-reliable.  Here's GFS to T198:

tempresult_kdk8.gif

If standard mobile UK weather is low pressure interspersed with brief high pressures, this looks the exact opposite.   Plenty of high pressure around, just not always over us.  Warmth interspersed with thunderstorms and downpours, I would expect.

GEM less good, seems to contrive to keep a small cut off low close the UK for quite a bit of the run, and has the retrogression signal later.

tempresult_oms5.gif

UKMO ends at T144 pretty good for warmth.

UW144-21.GIF?24-19

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
7 hours ago, Alderc said:

Today is the perfect example of what I was talking about earlier, but got shot for saying. On Monday is was forecast to be 22-25C widely across E+W today, when in reality it is just another poor May day. GFS 06Z doesn't make tomorrow a whole load better apart from the extreme SE and NW. It does however give a slightly better Sunday/Monday more generally across the south than some of the previous runs though.

Hard luck for you, we've actually exceeded the BBC's prediction of 22C here in Manchester this afternoon in almost unbroken sunshine. So some are actually doing better than forecast, and this will be the case over the weekend too.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Really pleased with the Gfs 12z through high res especially, easy to forget it's still spring for another week yet and the models show predominantly summery weather with plenty of warmth, sunshine and some thunderstorms...way better than the jet powering across the uk with cool unsettled atlantic dross!!..lots to enjoy for the rest of May and into early June!?️..as for the cricket...:bad:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Hard luck for you, we've actually exceeded the BBC's prediction of 22C here in Manchester this afternoon in almost unbroken sunshine. So some are actually doing better than forecast, and this will be the case over the weekend too.

such a good area Manchester for weather, 10 days at least unbroken sunshine up there, although maybe cloudier tomorrow, 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Today was a good day in Leeds too to be fair with a max of 22C (higher than forecast) and sunshine from 11am onward. Tomorrow looks horrifying though.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Plenty of very warm / increasingly humid continental weather on the Ecm 12z, the uppers (850's) are high and in any sunshine temps will soar into the mid / high 20's celsius and there is lots of thunderstorm potential too..very summery for most of the run.?️

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192_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Whatever happens, it’s staying very warm probably until the end of next week now. Pretty amazing spell of weather for May, you’d settle for this in mid July! Hope we haven’t been spoiled early this year and the rest of summer is a washout. The pressure patterns recently have been pretty much spot on for what you need for U.K. warmth. Perhaps a tad less easterly influence if we’re being really picky.

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18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Great to see such good runs on 12z output.

It’s a mystery why people on the other side are saying the fine spell is over?

Don’t think anyone is saying it’s over (although if you’d been here today, rain all day and amax of just 14/15 you might think otherwise), just watered down and cloudier than was forecast a day or two ago. 

That said the 12z appear to slightly better, although the upper cold pool developing off the SW of the UK next week could be a nuisance.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean is quite interesting tonight, first at T168 high pressure signal spread large and wide, so some considerable uncertainty:

EDM1-168.GIF?24-0

T192 suggests the retrogression option:

EDM1-192.GIF?24-0

But at T240 the mean seems to suggest a good chance of the UK being in the picture for warm weather:

EDM1-240.GIF?24-0

Again, the uncertainty isn't really over us at T240

EEM1-240.GIF?24-0

Would like to see the clusters, but this looks good compared to recent output.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean pretty much mirrors the operational run earlier, becoming very warm and more humid, especially between sunday and later next week with plenty of sunshine, temps ranging from low / mid / high 20's celsius and with scattered thunderstorms..from what I can tell, the storm risk increases further during the first half of next week..very summery synoptics..plume like conditions.?️?️

ECMAVGEU12_72_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Great to see such good runs on 12z output.

It’s a mystery why people on the other side are saying the fine spell is over?

Evening,! Nobody is saying the fine spell is over but with lower pressure to the south of the uk over the next few days it spells warmth and some violent thunderstorms.  Plenty of energy in the atmosphere to produce warmth sunshine and the like 

ecmt850.096-2.png

h850t850eu-26.png

h850t850eu-23.png

hgt300-4.png

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