Model output discussion 14/04/18

[ANYWEATHER]

24 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

I'm loving the output at the moment absolutely scorching for the foreseeable future.

Evening! Really? I would not describe the synoptic weather pattern "Scorching" in the up coming days, in fact the models have downgraded the heat for the weekend , but good news the thunderstorm potential still remains with perhaps some Violent thunderstorms for the Bank Holiday weekend....

[Leon1]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Really? I would not describe the synoptic weather pattern "Scorching" in the up coming days, in fact the models have downgraded the heat for the weekend , but good news the thunderstorm potential still remains with perhaps some Violent thunderstorms for the Bank Holiday weekend....

I wouldn't really say downgraded when there is still 15c uppers hitting the SE!

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

I wouldn't really say downgraded when there is still 15c uppers hitting the SE!

When the 6z showed it as far north as the midlands, its a downgrade.

[CheesepuffScott]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

I wouldn't really say downgraded when there is still 15c uppers hitting the SE!

And from my past experience, models, especially GFS usually under-estimate the 2m temp by 2 or 3C. We will have to see, but my hopes are high.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

I wouldn't really say downgraded when there is still 15c uppers hitting the SE!

Exactly, no downgrade..indeed, the Ecm 12z upgrades the heat and the Gfs 12z becomes very warm too, locally hot further south with temps into the 80's F...superb output for summery weather with plenty of sunshine and some storms too, mainly further south.

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Exactly, no downgrade..indeed, the Ecm 12z upgrades the heat and the Gfs 12z becomes very warm too, locally hot further south with temps into the 80's F...superb output for summery weather with plenty of sunshine and some storms too, mainly further south.

It's because some people are obsessed with 30c ! Nowt wrong with days and days of 24 25 26c

[mb018538]

There’s no downgrade, we were just dealt a very warm op run a few times in a row that was top of the ensemble members....were now getting runs more around the ensemble average.

forecasts are still going for 27/28c over the bank holiday....that’s 10c above average....just shows how good May has been that people can even begin to quibble about those sort of temps. Looks fab to me!

[damianslaw]

Not commenting on the models as they continue to show the same theme - high pressure generally ruling for the foreseeable. Would like to hear from those more knowledgeable of longer term background signals and whether any might suggest a shift in the current pattern.. as we move into June we traditionally see a reawakening atlantic, not saying this will happen, but there is a tentative signal heights will come under some forcing from the north with a trough possibly breaking through the azores-scandi high which would result in a mid atlantic high.

For the time being - its de-ja-vu conditions. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think as long as we stay under the influence of the cut off low down over Iberia, and the heights staying to our NE, we are game on for the continued warm theme into June. 

However, if we lose the cut off low and northward deposit of very warm air, along with a westward shift of the high, that’s when we are open to attack from a more northerly source, which would not be welcomed by most after such a brilliant May. I am less worried about the latter now though, as the majority of models backed away from that idea a few days ago. 

[Frosty.]

55 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

It's because some people are obsessed with 30c ! Nowt wrong with days and days of 24 25 26c

I think the heat is due to peak on sun /  BH mon at around 28 / 29c for the hottest spots and then drop back slightly into the mid 20's celsius range...still fabulous considering it's not even summer yet..plenty of sunshine, even for eastern coast's and some thunderstorms dotted around too, mainly for the s and w...perfick summer weather..in spring!

 

[northwestsnow]

Ec mean solid out to day 10 - 

No sign yet of the retrogression that many of us summer lovers fear, have to say this is turning into a classic month in NW England, the SE winds over the weekend will see temps soar here and the chance of one or two storms to boot!

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec mean solid out to day 10 - 

No sign yet of the retrogression that many of us summer lovers fear, have to say this is turning into a classic month in NW England, the SE winds over the weekend will see temps soar here and the chance of one or two storms to boot!

Yes it's a superb Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight..in summary it's summery!..still going strong at day 10 with the azores high building in..lovely stuff

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec mean solid out to day 10 - 

No sign yet of the retrogression that many of us summer lovers fear, have to say this is turning into a classic month in NW England, the SE winds over the weekend will see temps soar here and the chance of one or two storms to boot!

Yes it really has been a stunning month around here, incredible sunshine levels throughout really and very little rain. Today was just stunning with that breeze and lower dew points helping to produce a really deep blue sky. Not cracking the flags but hopefully that will happen from Sunday onwards!

Not much more I can add to what has already been said about tonight's output- stunning and no real end in sight to the warmth!

[John Michael How]

3 hours ago, Sweatyman said:

It's because some people are obsessed with 30c ! Nowt wrong with days and days of 24 25 26c

Itv London weather tonight mentioned likely 30c by Monday in the SE

[MP-R]

What a series of model runs. Really quite uncharacteristic for so early in the season but some fantastic weather conditions (shame I'm going away for two weeks).

The high pressure belt from SW to NE looks like a constant theme with instability around further south. As we head into June I'd expect the Scandinavian high to weaken somewhat with stronger high pressure from the southwest migrating over the UK. This is what often brings the year's best weather in June. What we've had so far is very much a bonus.

[mb018538]

It looks like we can kick the idea of those ultra high temperatures into touch for now - model output seems to have aligned on it still being very warm/hot, though not quite as exceptional as we were being teased with a day or two ago. It also looks like staying warm well into next week, though with pressure relatively low, don't expect wall to wall sunshine. I would have thought plenty of thunderstorms could spark off, or even drift over the channel from our friends in France.

[Summer Sun]

Above average 850's look like continuing into June higher chance of more frequent showers in the south but always less in the north

[JeffC]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Above average 850's look like continuing into June higher chance of more frequent showers in the south but always less in the north

What a refreshing change, the North West being favoured with the pick of the weather! 

Models as far as I can read them suggest below average ppn, we'll be talking hose pipe bans before you can utter the word "drought"! 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It looks like we can kick the idea of those ultra high temperatures into touch for now - model output seems to have aligned on it still being very warm/hot, though not quite as exceptional as we were being teased with a day or two ago. It also looks like staying warm well into next week, though with pressure relatively low, don't expect wall to wall sunshine. I would have thought plenty of thunderstorms could spark off, or even drift over the channel from our friends in France.

Agree on that, with the pressure not being massively high, there's a lot more cloud around than I expected holding the temperatures lower.

[Man With Beard]

The macro pattern for next week is settling down, which is for a warm continental feed to persist the entire week, but the micro detail is a different story.

For northern areas, it looks very settled - very warm in the west and comfortably warm in the east (though always the risk of low cloud on the east coast first thing).

For southern areas, it's a real head-scratcher. There's the potential for very hot days from Saturday right out to the end of the week - in fact, I'd be surprised if 30C wasn't reached somewhere during the period. However, it looks like the Biscay low will be close enough to influence southern areas some of the time, if not much of the time. It's going to be very hard to forecast where rain bands or cloud bands are going to form and pass over. Potentially, one or two days could be closer to 20C if that were to happen. But I don't think a predominately hot and dry week can be discounted either. 

So it's not a classic heatwave, where skies are endlessly blue for days, but statistically we may look back on the period in future years and describe it as one.

Into June, and we still can't call where the pattern is going. GEFS and ECM ensembles have quite different takes this morning at D10:

  

The GEFS looks a strong call for a continuation of the present situation for a few more days. The ECM could be the same, but with far more potential for small disturbances to get in under the high to the north and bring more unsettled weather in.

Still no strong indication of retrogression. I'd stick my neck out and say it isn't going to happen any time soon - I always feel the models put a bit more energy into the Atlantic around D7, so smart money for me is that the pattern from these ensembles means will correct east, rather than west. Just (calculated) guesswork of course

[Frosty.]

A summery Gfs 6z operational, very blocked / slow moving pattern well into early june with predominantly high pressure in control meaning a good deal of dry, warm / very warm and sunny weather with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius..not completely settled with mainly the south being at risk of thunderstorms at times..no complaints from me, it's great to not see any atlantic influence!

 

 

[mushymanrob]

ok, im confused...

not sure what to make of the coming conditions.

i dont understand why all model suits suggest a week or so at least of high 'uppers' from the southeast which id interpret as hot and humid, temps over 25c, t storms/heavy thundery showers at times, for most of the uk.

yet the bbc outlook and accuweather for derby only has temps 21c - 24c... so is the heat restricted to the southeast only? but why would it be relatively cool under very warm uppers of 10c+ ?

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

ok, im confused...

not sure what to make of the coming conditions.

i dont understand why all model suits suggest a week or so at least of high 'uppers' from the southeast which id interpret as hot and humid, temps over 25c, t storms/heavy thundery showers at times, for most of the uk.

yet the bbc outlook and accuweather for derby only has temps 21c - 24c... so is the heat restricted to the southeast only? but why would it be relatively cool under very warm uppers of 10c+ ?

Problem is the continued easterly flow and combined moisture amounts will produce ALOT of cloud at times, so some places at times might find themselves under uppers so 12-15C but temps could struggle to reach 20C.

[Derecho]

Good morning on another fine May day  .

No downgrades to the heat since the last time I posted, with any notable downturn in temperatures limited to T300 in the GFS ensemble members (a few more progressive runs every now and then though).

The retrogression looks iffy to say the least now. This is good for longer term prospects to our warmth.

A bit of a downgrade for thundery potential though, the current chart shows SLP in the southern UK around 1015-1020mb for next Tuesday, a few days ago it was at 1010mb or lower in the south, indicating the Iberian low isn't being developed as strongly.

This may mean home grown storms are more limited across the UK (apart from the far SW) but the chances of some good storms coming off the continent remains. From past events, usually when SLP is above 1014mb and there is no cyclonic circulation the risk of a storm event becoming a dud really increases, so for home grown storms we need the Iberian/Biscay low a bit closer to home.

[Derecho]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

ok, im confused...

not sure what to make of the coming conditions.

i dont understand why all model suits suggest a week or so at least of high 'uppers' from the southeast which id interpret as hot and humid, temps over 25c, t storms/heavy thundery showers at times, for most of the uk.

yet the bbc outlook and accuweather for derby only has temps 21c - 24c... so is the heat restricted to the southeast only? but why would it be relatively cool under very warm uppers of 10c+ ?

The BBC forecasts confuse many people these days, away from the NE Coasts I reckon temperatures will be in the low-mid 20s on many days, with the exception of when organised storms cross the channel overnight, leaving some areas with persistent rain the following day. Speculating when and if that may happen is difficult at this early stage.