Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Mike Poole]

Heads down for the 12s, and the ICON is on the roller coaster, check this run out:

Great end to the run! I will await the other models before making further comment.

Edited May 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

UKMO at T144, there's a decent spell of warm settled  weather for a lot of the UK if this comes off.

[Matthew.]

[mb018538]

Gfs turns on the flamethrower! Ukmo not quite as good with that keen northeasterly flow picking up, gfs keeps it more towards three continent and draws the warmer air up. Looking good though!

[Frosty.]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Gfs turns on the flamethrower! 

Then it turns off the flamethrower!..quite a cold and unsettled end to may / start to june❄❄❄

Edited May 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

The GEM 12z looks interesting, here with that massive high we've seen on other runs at T180: 

Then this at T240:

Heading to Greenland, hope not, and think not as well.

[Mike Poole]

So we've got an ensemble mean chart at T192, that's 8 days away, from the GEFS with a 1030 contour on it over the UK.  What's not to like?

 there's so many emojis now how do you choose?  I went for comfortable shoes in the end.

[Mike Poole]

CFS watch,   yesterday's runs for June, Z500 anomalies, here we go 18z first:

One dud but, quietly confident that the overall trend is positive. 

Edited May 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Matthew.]

ECM says all’s well up to next Sunday with uppers generally between 5-10 range for England. Looks a much better outlook for Scotland this time also esp the North west where it’s been cloudy.

At +216 the low has lost the fight I think and pushed to it’s little corner

Edited May 19, 2018 by Matthew.

[northwestsnow]

Glorious ECM this evening

Its generally warm all the way through ..

sorry cant post images

 

 

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

As we get to the business end of the ECM, here starting at T120:

Noteworthy how north the jet stream is.  T168:

That low in Spain is worth keeping an eye on in future runs, if that positions correctly could result in a decent plume.

Finally T240 great guns!   I've decided that I'm just going to pick the emojis at random, now here's the end of the run:

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Fabulous mid / late May according to the Ecm 12z..in summary, it's summery

[mb018538]

Superb ECM - may the early start to summer keep on rolling!!

[damianslaw]

 Models all in agreement of a continuation of the dry settled theme - which in turn will deliver for many a predominantly protracted dry spell - something we haven't had for quite some time. However, chance of some thundery outbreaks next week, very localised and small scale features, but some places could see a deluge in a short space of time.

As we move towards Bank Holiday, signal for heights to settle over Scandi but becoming east-west aligned as heights lower over S Europe - there is therefore every chance a quick retrogression of heights to the NW - or just a mid atlantic high, so not surprised to GFS evolution this evening -but that's a long way off.

For now, we have lots more dry settled warm clear sky weather to enjoy, superb all round, comfortable enough for sleeping,comfortable enough for doing outdoor stuff, marvellous for vigorous late spring growth. No hazy skies either. 

We could be about to see two back to back excellent bank holiday weekends - when was the last time we could say that. 

Can it sustain.. probabilities say no.. so just enjoy it. Summer is notoriously more likely to be unsettled than Spring - something that we need to remind ourselves when we are staring at the atlantic in July and August!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is fine and dry southern counties need to keep an eye on those showers (Thunderstorms?) over France they could easily move a bit further north

[carinthian]

On ‎18‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 17:04, carinthian said:

Glad I have picked a good time to visit. A trip to the sunny north country defo on the cards.

C

Back in Sussex this afternoon. Enjoying a pint in the beer garden at The Horse and Groom pub in Rushlake Green. Bit chilly now, thinks its around 13c. See Manchester was 21 c today, will be heading up there on Monday. The model charts are very encouraging for next week almost everywhere ,especially in Northwest England.

C

[Frosty.]

Lovely looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, summery from start to finish with power to add well beyond day 10...generally pleasantly warm settled weather with lots of strong late May sunshine..a risk of isolated thunderstorms across the south during the week ahead with continental inflow, overall it's a superb summer-like anticyclonic looking mean for late spring..nationwide with the jet pushed well to the north, up near greenland, iceland and northern scandinavia...hopefully there will be plenty more charts like these during the next four months!

Edited May 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

looking  a bit damp deep into fantasy world  at the moment

 

[Man With Beard]

The half term week could be a cracker if current charts are to be believed. ECM mean 850s at D11:

which shows 850s over 8C through England and Wales, on a continental ticket without thunder interference that could result in 23-26C - however a mean far removed from the norm normally means clustering even farther from the norm, so I'd guess a fair amount of runs in there anywhere between 25-30C, and I'd include Scotland in that bracket too. The wise money for me is currently on a hot bank holiday + days immediately after. As June arrives, the signal seems to lose its way but no evidence yet the current pattern has a definite end date. 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Back in Sussex this afternoon. Enjoying a pint in the beer garden at The Horse and Groom pub in Rushlake Green. Bit chilly now, thinks its around 13c. See Manchester was 21 c today, will be heading up there on Monday. The model charts are very encouraging for next week almost everywhere ,especially in Northwest England.

C

Glorious in Manchester today and a very light wind which made it feel warmer than 21C in the afternoon.

It has been stunning for most of the last 2 weeks and looks like continuing.

[Frost HoIIow]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Glorious in Manchester today and a very light wind which made it feel warmer than 21C in the afternoon.

It has been stunning for most of the last 2 weeks and looks like continuing.

Make the most of it as the city isn't exactly known for prolonged warmth or dryness, more the opposite. Come June the Atlantic can crank up delivering a cool damp Summer especially for western areas. May is often the driest and sunniest month for Greater Manchester - similar for other north western areas of the UK. Been loads of May's that have been dry and warm around here only for Summer itself to be cooler and damper.

[sparky71a]

6 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Make the most of it as the city isn't exactly known for prolonged warmth or dryness, more the opposite. Come June the Atlantic can crank up delivering a cool damp Summer especially for western areas. May is often the driest and sunniest month for Greater Manchester - similar for other north western areas of the UK. Been loads of May's that have been dry and warm around here only for Summer itself to be cooler and damper.

He sees into the future like he owns it! May be it will be a little different this year... #lowsolaractivity 

[mb018538]

ECM is a barnstormer again this morning!

ukmo iffy once more as the flow isn’t from the right direction. It seems t have a disturbance over Germany at 144 that isn’t there on ecm, and this scuppers the very warmest air moving in. Let’s hope ecm is the form horse here. GEM also very similar.

[carinthian]

8 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Glorious in Manchester today and a very light wind which made it feel warmer than 21C in the afternoon.

It has been stunning for most of the last 2 weeks and looks like continuing.

Looks glorious again today.  Manchester/Chester could be close to one of the hot spots..23C?

C

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the models and it really does look like the Atlantic is going for a nice big nap at the moment.