Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Lots could change but all recent GFS 18z. 00z and 06z gives June a dogs breakfast start with below average temps.

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Lots could change but all recent GFS 18z. 00z and 06z gives June a dogs breakfast start with below average temps.

 

And it is two weeks away... always easy to point out a cool, wet chart when you get into FI eh?

The GFS is fantastic in the closer range and it will be interesting to see how widespread the storms will get on Tuesday.

The disparity in the output from this morning comes with the strength of the high pressure to our north which emerges next week. With a lot of cold air bottled up in the North Atlantic  there is a chance the Atlantic jet could wake up a bit more and push things further east.

The GFS has been very persistent though in forecasting that not to happen. If it doesn't we are looking at a lengthy warm spell. In fact, using the GFS to calculate forecast CET, I have it at 13.5C to end the month. Given the GFS tends to underestimate maxima it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a CET of around 13.8C at the end if the 06z came off. That would make it the warmest May since 1848.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And it is two weeks away... always easy to point out a cool, wet chart when you get into FI eh?
 

 

I'm aware its in FI and its two weeks away and I'm aware FI should be took with a pinch of salt but I think you missed the part I said lots can change. This is model chat not High pressure chat.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows an Arctic blast at the beginning of summer with snow on northern hills / mountains!

[Derecho]

33 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I'm aware its in FI and its two weeks away and I'm aware FI should be took with a pinch of salt but I think you missed the part I said lots can change. This is model chat not High pressure chat.

Of course it can change... when the output is at T384.  It's hardly a trend is it?, neither the 00z, 18z or 12z showed it. If it had been at something like T180 then it would be a different story.

Plus our weather is driven by the positioning of high pressure cells so maybe you should expect a lot of high pressure chat on the model output thread? 

Edited May 18, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

Lots could change but all recent GFS 18z. 00z and 06z gives June a dogs breakfast start with below average temps.

 

I’ve noticed this retrogressive signal as we move into June with GFS. With such a cracking May on the cards maybe June will be a corker. It sometimes happens after unusually good weather it can go the opposite

[weathergeek]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Think a big shift this morning from UKMO to GFS model after reinvigorates heights again to the north of this latest run . Maybe see a change in the Met Office wording forecast in the outlook period. Again, West and North looks good in this set up and I cannot see much rain or cooler than normal temps in this location. Looking forward to some nice Blighty sunshine on my arrival tomorrow for a couple of weeks visit.

C

I hope you're right, we're currently en route from sunny/warm home in the southeast to holiday near Blackpool! To be honest, I was happy with just dry weather but a bit warmer would be nice too!x

[Mike Poole]

CFS watch, yesterday's runs for Z500 anomalies for June, 18z first:

All looking very promising. So with yesterday's mixed output, and the day before strongly promoting anticyclone dominated weather, I think the long range output is great!

[Mike Poole]

I'm not buying the ICON this afternoon, here we are next Thursday at T135:

...and we end up with this 24 hours later:

Still there the next day (end of run T180), but would surely be pushed away soon after.

Edited May 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[carinthian]

43 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

I hope you're right, we're currently en route from sunny/warm home in the southeast to holiday near Blackpool! To be honest, I was happy with just dry weather but a bit warmer would be nice too!x

Sunny Blackpool. Get the high in the right place and can be scorching on the Fylde coast. Currently its warmer than SE coastal resorts. Hope it stays fine for your holiday.

 C

[Matthew.]

Ukmo looking marvellous at +96 and +120 and +144

Edited May 18, 2018 by Matthew.

[carinthian]

6 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Ukmo looking marvellous at +96 and +120

Glad I have picked a good time to visit. A trip to the sunny north country defo on the cards.

C

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Ukmo looking marvellous at +96 and +120 and +144

Yes, that possible window of unsettled weather early next week has almost disappeared from the model output.  And for the 5-7 day period is looking fine on GFS at T138  and GEM at T150:

 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

28 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Sunny Blackpool. Get the high in the right place and can be scorching on the Fylde coast. Currently its warmer than SE coastal resorts. Hope it stays fine for your holiday.

 C

Same with west Wales where we're going next week, highs up to 20C in Tenby so very warm for a coastal resort in May but unfortunately there's an increasing risk of thundery showers so might not be beach weather for me lol, Blackpool is great and there's much less risk of catching a shower/storm there next week. Enjoy 

Edited May 18, 2018 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Mike Poole]

Really liking the GFS 12z, here's the evolution up to T192, T24 and then daily:

 

Edit: Technology defeated me on this post, I'll try and complete it again:

No real mentions of T850s recently because they are average, but this could change, T192, sucking something up from the south?

Edited May 18, 2018 by Mike Poole

[snowray]

47 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Ukmo looking marvellous at +96 and +120 and +144

I'd love to see charts like that in January though.

[mb018538]

The unsettled stuff hasnt totally gone, there is a bit of instability pushing up from the south at 120 and 144 which could spoil things in a few places. Generally settled and pretty warm though, can’t really moan!

[Mike Poole]

OK if you follow the GFS evolution you can see where this comes from at T240:

But then explain this at T336 

Nonsense.  Here's the GEM at T240:

Now thats a chart with promise to add!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The unsettled stuff hasnt totally gone, there is a bit of instability pushing up from the south at 120 and 144 which could spoil things in a few places. Generally settled and pretty warm though, can’t really moan!

You say ‘spoil’...

[Mike Poole]

GEFS ensemble mean at T192, if you want warm settled weather UK wide with possible thunder in the south, this gives possibilities for both, let's see what happens 

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEFS ensemble mean at T192, if you want warm settled weather UK wide with possible thunder in the south, this gives possibilities for both, let's see what happens 

The GEFS 12z mean is showing generally summery weather natiowide, apart from eastern coasts almost until the end of may but Exeter MO are talking about unsettled with spells of rain and cool temps across W / NW uk next week which is nothing like the mean is showing, indeed it would be the W / NW which gets the warmest, driest and sunniest weather in the set up shown next week..and further ahead.

Edited May 18, 2018 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty representative of the output for next week, high pressure building to our north east and this is re-enforced by heights to our west building NE leaving a shallow trough in between which becomes cut off towards Portugal. Western areas look best and areas south of the Humber should be okay with the wind direction, however NE England and Eastern Scotland could get plagued by low cloud. Southern areas will probably see some afternoon showers on quite a few days next week with slightly lower heights and the highest 850s which will both fuel instability. Looking at the output, it could be possible that we will enter another rather prolonged period of easterly winds, though this time it could be warm or very warm

[Matthew.]

I can’t remember charts like these with high pressure covering the whole Atlantic The Jet is way north, ridiculously so if I may add. What a run!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO/GFS look lovely with plenty of warmth and high pressure on offer, EC looks similar out to 192 were we have this chart-

 

One of the best Mays i can remember looks odds on to finish beautiful.
 

[Summer Sun]

ECM   upgrading the high this evening on the 12z

It could be a long time until this high loses its grip over the UK

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by Summer Sun