Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Summer Sun]

UKMO t144 shows the high getting back in place

[Frosty.]

The ICON 12z is looking good..very good actually, becoming considerably warmer during the coming days with high pressure and plenty of sunshine, temps into the low to mid 20's celsius across england and wales.

[Frosty.]

There's some cracking weather on the Gfs 12z..a summery end to spring according to these charts!

There's plenty of excellent weather before then too with high pressure and increasing warmth and very warm continental air spreading up across southern uk early next week and more humid with some thundery showers further south for a time..really summery.

Edited May 17, 2018 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks great, ukmo on the other hand not nearly as convincing with the Atlantic looking much more menacing.

ps thanks mods

Edited May 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

Much like the 6z before it, the GEFS 12z mean is indicating a summery spell as we approach the end of spring with plenty of high pressure and warmth, continental air and a brief slight fall in pressure across the south during the first half of next week bringing a risk of thundery showers but generally it's looking warm and settled for most.

[Mike Poole]

Just looking at the 12 suite, I think everything remains very promising, and the slight deterioration early next week on most output looks exactly that - slight.

Model comparison at T180, ICON:

GFS, rather between two stools:

GEM likewise:

CMA, more continental flow:

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, a bit better here this morning and slightly warmer. This mornings latest UKMO model comes on board with a developing upper low over France at 144t. Seems to be a reoccurring theme so far this part of the early summer. Best again looks Western and Central Britain with SE under risk from the development over France but could be marginal .

 C

Major difference at 144t comparing GFS  model with the latest UKMO model. For some reason the UKMO drops heights to the North and East, sort follows their worded forecast as reported earlier. Whereas, GFS maintains the high pressure across much of the country. This scenario is well backed by our forecasts over here. North and West Britain not getting the cooler temps and rainfall in the period post 144t as Met Office have suggested in their medium term forecasts. See what ECM  brings. Maybe UKMO model going off one ! 

 C

Edited May 17, 2018 by carinthian

[mb018538]

As you’d expect from the cracking gfs run, it’s right at the top of the ensemble members.

 

Looks like huge uncertainty even at 5 days time, varying temp and ppn spikes.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

As you’d expect from the cracking gfs run, it’s right at the top of the ensemble members.

 

Looks like huge uncertainty even at 5 days time, varying temp and ppn spikes.

Looks dodgy heading into June.....

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Major difference at 144t comparing GFS  model with the latest UKMO model. For some reason the UKMO drops heights to the North and East, sort follows their worded forecast as reported earlier. Whereas, GFS maintains the high pressure across much of the country. This scenario is well backed by our forecasts over here. North and West Britain not getting the cooler temps and rainfall in the period post 144t as Met Office have suggested in their medium term forecasts. See what ECM  brings. Maybe UKMO model going off one ! 

 C

ECM looks like a halfway house between GFS  and UKMO models at 144t, sort of sitting on the fence. If GFS longer term charts come off , you will be in for a very nice spell of early summer weather.

C

[Frosty.]

There's plenty of high pressure and warmth on the Ecm 12z for most of the uk during the days ahead with a good deal of dry and sunny weather, the exception being the far NW where it looks cooler and more unsettled. Early next week there is an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out across the s / se due to a warmer more humid continental inflow and then things briefly turn cooler / fresher from the NW before the azores high builds in later next week and it warms up again, at least across southern uk...it's still spring but there is more summery weather on the way, especially across southern uk.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

The only caveat to the ECM 12z is at the end, where other models have settled weather, this run throws a brief spanner, although I expect the high pressure to ridge in again in the next frame or two. T240:

Looking at the ECM mean, however, next ridge of high pressure still oncoming at same time, strong signal:

Interesting to compare these, the ECM mean is seeing nothing of the low east of Iceland on the op run, suggesting it's a rogue feature.

Edited May 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Now that's bank holiday weather with this slightly reverse fish shaped high pressure nosing in on the FIM9 at T240 :

Edited May 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Lincs Observation]

47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's plenty of high pressure and warmth on the Ecm 12z for most of the uk during the days ahead with a good deal of dry and sunny weather, the exception being the far NW where it looks cooler and more unsettled. Early next week there is an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out across the s / se due to a warmer more humid continental inflow and then things briefly turn cooler / fresher from the NW before the azores high builds in later next week and it warms up again, at least across southern uk...it's still spring but there is more summery weather on the way, especially across southern uk.

 

 

Its all looking good and backs up the metoffice post i put up last week about them being bullish about the next few weeks, stunning is what id say.

Quick one for you frosty, i find it ironic reading your posts which i do everyday with great interest about the prospects for the coming weeks and the heat and sun, but its your name tag FROSTY that make me chuckle when i read about heat. Maybe you should change it this summer to SWEATY lol on account of the warm weather not your personal hygiene id like to add 

LO 

[CheesepuffScott]

I need to change my profile picture to something more summery. Not sure what though. Although I am going to Weymouth for the bank holiday weekend so may gave me a few nice photo opportunities.

[Mike Poole]

CFS watch, June Z500 anomaly charts starting with today's 0z, then the last 4 runs:

One bad one in there, couple meh, couple promising.  Should always be taken in context of a large sample set of runs, of course, the previous days runs were better.

Edited May 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[BlueHedgehog074]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

CFS watch, June Z500 anomaly charts starting with today's 0z, then the last 4 runs:

One bad one in there, couple meh, couple promising.  Should always be taken in context of a large sample set of runs, of course, the previous days runs were better.

As a personal preference, charts 1 and 5 would do nicely! (Seem the least unsettled looking)  ?

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC mean with little sign of the jet moving south, in fact if anything the opposite with the jet lifting further north.

 

[Mike Poole]

The ICON 18z run is finished and it looks great at T120, the end of the short run:

This unsettled blip might not even happen.

GFS 18z  at T156

Edited May 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Lovely 00z runs with HP generally in charge.. looks like ukmo has shifted a bit to the GFS this morning.

[Scorcher]

Yes more great charts this morning, I've been saying for a week or two now that this could be one of the great Mays in terms of sunshine.

No heatwave being shown this morning by any of the main models but the GFS looks much better than the ECM for warmth- suggestions by the GFS that some central and southern areas could reach the mid 20s from Tuesday onwards.

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by Scorcher

[carinthian]

13 hours ago, carinthian said:

Major difference at 144t comparing GFS  model with the latest UKMO model. For some reason the UKMO drops heights to the North and East, sort follows their worded forecast as reported earlier. Whereas, GFS maintains the high pressure across much of the country. This scenario is well backed by our forecasts over here. North and West Britain not getting the cooler temps and rainfall in the period post 144t as Met Office have suggested in their medium term forecasts. See what ECM  brings. Maybe UKMO model going off one ! 

 C

Think a big shift this morning from UKMO to GFS model after reinvigorates heights again to the north of this latest run . Maybe see a change in the Met Office wording forecast in the outlook period. Again, West and North looks good in this set up and I cannot see much rain or cooler than normal temps in this location. Looking forward to some nice Blighty sunshine on my arrival tomorrow for a couple of weeks visit.

C

[Summer Sun]

Looking at 00z UKMO high pressure will be with us most of next week quite a prolonged dry and pleasantly warm spell developing now

[summer blizzard]

Euro this morning has a somewhat messy break (i suspect dry and cloudy) next Mon-Weds. 

GFS largely abandons it..

[mb018538]

ECM is iffy later on in the run on the 00z....this chart doesn't look great:



Looking good though right through the weekend, and until Wednesday & Thursday many remain warm and dry. After this, it's a bit up in the air.