Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Summer Sun]

No change from UKMO with high pressure continuing into next week

 

[mb018538]

UKMO is great....GFS 12z completely loses the plot and brings low pressure in very quickly. Hopefully it’s a massive outlier.

[Frosty.]

Really liking the ICON 12z...another early taste of summer!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO is great....GFS 12z completely loses the plot and brings low pressure in very quickly. Hopefully it’s a massive outlier.

Its only middle of May!!!!  Even the best classic summers of 1976, 1983 etc had their unsettled moments in Spring!! Take outliers with a huge lorry load of salt

[snowray]

Yes lets just hope that the GFS 12z is wrong.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes lets just hope that the GFS 12z is wrong.

It usually is..really liking the ukmo / icon 12z..and hopefully the Ecm 12z later!

Edited May 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes lets just hope that the GFS 12z is wrong.

The GFS may be struggling with the northward extent of the jet stream. We are far from a normal pattern.

[Mike Poole]

I'm a little perplexed about the comments re the GFS 12z, unless I'm missing something.  Settled to Sunday

Then a blip

The high pressure rebuilding end next week, T210

T264

T384

Obviously the later part of the run will change, but the general pattern of anticyclonic dominance, interspersed with less settled interludes is as evident on this run as any other?

Edited May 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[MattTarrant]

8 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

The GFS may be struggling with the northward extent of the jet stream. We are far from a normal pattern.

That is not really a logical argument unless this idea was placed to all the models currently being analysed. Why exactly would the GFS in particular being out of kilter? 

I'm not having a go on a personal level, but we need more science to back these claims up!

[Mike Poole]

From the GEFS 12z mean, we can see that the next time we're in-between anticyclones is next Tuesday, T138:

Reflecting the evolution of the op run, but a very clear signal for the next high to roll in, here T264:

And a look at the uncertainty at the same time:

Great for the UK to be away from the region of high uncertainty for a change, love the position of the jet stream.

Edited May 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ANYWEATHER]

51 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

That is not really a logical argument unless this idea was placed to all the models currently being analysed. Why exactly would the GFS in particular being out of kilter? 

I'm not having a go on a personal level, but we need more science to back these claims up!

Models always struggle with blocking patterns  but at this time of year is nothing unusual,  but gfs may be sniffing the coffee 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Models always struggle with blocking patterns  but at this time of year is nothing unusual,  but gfs may be sniffing the coffee 

Gfs 12z looks predominantly fine and rather warm..the Gefs 12z mean looks even better with the jet up near iceland..for those of us who enjoy fine weather, it's looking very good!

Edited May 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

There's lots to like about the Gefs 12z mean, it's showing a prolonged largely settled spell with plenty of high pressure, initially from the blocking high to the E / NE and then more so from the azores high further ahead...and ample warm sunshine

 

Edited May 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z looking good long term, and I think long term is the prize here.  So T120, we're in between highs similar to GFS, but it's not going to be that significant , maybe a bit cloudy at times, here:

But another high builds back in here at T216, so long as this keeps happening (and it's consistent with long range models as far as that goes), we're in for a cracking summer:

Edit: just slip in the T240

Next one on the way!

Edited May 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z looking good long term, and I think long term is the prize here.  So T120, we're in between highs similar to GFS, but it's not going to be that significant , maybe a bit cloudy at times, here:

But another high builds back in here at T216, so long as this keeps happening (and it's consistent with long range models as far as that goes), we're in for a cracking summer:

Yes there's lots to like about the Ecm 12z, especially further south as high pressure continues to rebuild in from the southwest..if that keeps happening during the months ahead, most of us will be enjoying a good / very good summer!

Edited May 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Switching to long range, here's the last four CFS Z500 anomalies for June.  First up yesterday's 18z, and then the three previous ones:

Taken with other output, current trends etc., if anyone isn't calling a hot early summer, they want to take a look at themselves!  (You can quote that back at me if it doesn't happen, but it seems that everything is pointing that way!)

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean doesn't tell us much new early on, still slight, very slight, deterioration of conditions early next week,  then march on the next high at T240, strong signal this on a mean chart at T240:

[summer blizzard]

The current setups we are seeing are probably the result of an MJO wave which moved through the western Pacific in late April and was followed by enhanced trades in the Indian Ocean (Nino like). 

Current output does suggest that we may see trades strengthen in the central Pacific again (Nina like) so look for a potential bout of westerlies into early June should that occur. 

[mb018538]

Hmm, perhaps the first signs of a fly in the ointment today. Disturbance due to run across the country early next week, which could disrupt things later in the week and beyond.

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hmm, perhaps the first signs of a fly in the ointment today. Disturbance due to run across the country early next week, which could disrupt things later in the week and beyond.

A disturbance in the force..Hmm, I find your lack of faith disturbing

Just had a look at the Gfs 00z and it's a pretty summery run which isn't bad considering summer is still 2 weeks away!

[mb018538]

It’s not overly bad....

Frontal rain on the NE fringes not really making it, but some instability in southern England and Wales giving a bit of rain. This is still very much open to debate though.

[carinthian]

21 hours ago, carinthian said:

Horrible day yesterday. Cloud cleared this morning. Picture of our local mountain with snow cover down to 1800m or so. Reports of a substantial snowfall in the local mountains at 2500m and above. Back in the UK this weekend for a bit of cricket watching and real ale search for a week or two. Just looked at our medium forecast charts and nice for much of the UK over the weekend and beyond , especially the West and North. Hints at some sort of convective low or trough development over  France that may affect SE England earlier next week but that's a long way off but worth watching.

C

Morning all, a bit better here this morning and slightly warmer. This mornings latest UKMO model comes on board with a developing upper low over France at 144t. Seems to be a reoccurring theme so far this part of the early summer. Best again looks Western and Central Britain with SE under risk from the development over France but could be marginal .

 C

[Man With Beard]

First look at the Bank Holiday weekend, a pretty good starting point with a 1030mb Azores high slightly displaced in our direction:

  

Warm and fairly settled without being particularly hot is my first thought on seeing those (possibly less settled for the far north).

Potential for something a bit more Nly or NWly to slip into the pattern later on? Though the demise of the eastern block has been exaggerated more than once recently...

[mb018538]

Looking warmer into next week, though with some instability in the atmosphere too:



Looks like we may get some imports from the near continent with some warm and humid air wafting our way. Very much different to the recent warm spells which have been dominated by clear skies and low humidity.

Edit - It's very annoying that you can't expand these attachments! Almost impossible to see!

Edited May 17, 2018 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is largely great, very summery with lots of high pressure and sunshine, during the first half of next week it becomes very warm and increasingly humid as we import continental air into southern uk with an increasing chance of thunderstorms but most of the run looks generally fine and warm / very warm with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius, especially across the southern half of the uk.

Edited May 17, 2018 by Frosty.