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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Turned out pretty good mike, especially across the southern half of the uk with plenty of high pressure / ridging and warm at times with sunny periods and generally light winds.

Here's the Ecm 12z run, as I said earlier it turned out pretty good considering how disappointing things looked recently but generally the 12z runs offer significant encouragement for mainly pleasant weather and with a strong signal, especially from the GEFS for a very warm anticyclonic late May. 

72_mslp500.png

96_mslp500.png

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120_mslp500.png

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168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looking good! Happy with that output for sure. High pressure very close to the U.K. for a good chunk.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Really quiet in here..anyway tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows plenty of azores ridging next week, even azores / scandi high link up early next week when it also looks warm...so, the emphasis would be on largely settled weather with pleasantly warm sunny spells, especially across southern uk, the jet is away further nw / n along with the main thrust of the cool unsettled atlantic dross!:)

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Friday night I guess. Anyway ICON 18z looking peachy at the end of run at just T120:

icon-0-120.png?11-18

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Models looking good next week, plenty of pleasant settled weather with sunny spells.

 

PS..wish David Snow would stop leaving stupid faces on every post i do, he's following me around like a bad smell..have a word with him please mods.:)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Models looking good next week, plenty of pleasant settled weather with sunny spells.

 

PS..wish David Snow would stop leaving stupid faces on every post i do, he's following me around like a bad smell..have a word with him please mods.:)

Why not put on ignore and also report to the team?

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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL

As far as the weather is concerned looking at the latest charts it looks as though after this blip in the east and southeast today and tomorrow the weather will then improve. It has started to rain here already and looks set to continue for some time, therefore the BBQ I planned is definitely out later today.

I hope the still cool evenings and overnight period for mid week does not result in ground frost as it will play havoc with young plants I have on my allotment.

Kind Regards

Dave

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Meanwhile back on topic:

Next Saturday GFS 6z is developing a dart board just South East off Greenland (948mb) . Good news for us that it aids the HP development across UK giving settled conditions with Nationwide temps around 21C 

 

temps.png

next sat 1.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some posts have had to go, Please report any issues and not discuss in here as to keep the thread informative and readable.

Many thanks, Please continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm really liking the GEFS 6z mean, especially in the mid / longer term which looks increasingly warm and anticyclonic.:)

21_126_500mb.png

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21_366_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

So, a pleasing turnaround by the models after that concerning consideration of height rises heading NW from our vicinity and setting up a major blocking system. Here's a brief look at what's behind this change of heart:

ecm500.144.png ecm500.120.png

Day 5 of yesterdays ECM 00z (left) and today's ECM 00z (right). The main points to note are that a compact low is located north of Scandinavia on both runs, and that the 00z of today has the trough in the Atlantic extending down west of the UK quite a bit more than the 00z of yesterday.

ecm500.168.png ecm500.144.png

A day later and what a difference those changes have made! Yesterday's 00z had the low north of Norway stalling out while the Atlantic trough flattened the ridging across the UK - both working against building heights across to Scandinavia - while today's 00z has the low north of Norway getting caught up in the trough complex across Greenland and the extension of the Atlantic trough down west of the UK supporting ridge development across us and toward Scandinavia, rather than inhibiting it.

This also has the effect of trapping more in the way of low pressure across central Europe, which further supports UK-Scandinavian height rises going forward.

Not only that, but the absorption of the low north of Norway gives the trough complex across Greenland a boost, helping it to stick around and prevent any path opening up for high pressure to head northwest from the UK or Scandinavia.

ecm500.216.png ecm500.192.png

A couple of days further on and the differences are vast with respect to the UK's weather - but in terms of the overall pattern around us, they're not so pronounced - it's just that the earlier changes playing advantage to the Scandinavian height rises have allowed a blocking high to develop that's large and strong enough to keep the Atlantic troughs from reaching the UK. That the trough isn't as crazily intense also helps!

As many are aware, it's not just ECM that has turned the leaf since yesterday morning; a comparison using GFS reveals an equally dramatic adjustment to our weather conditions - and with more in the way of changes around us too (just look at the Greenland heights!):

h500slp.png h500slp.png

p.s. is anyone else finding the automatic link embed feature has stopped working all of a sudden?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Bar the occasional unsettled blip, the Gfs 6z operational was very acceptable with plenty of high pressure / ridging and generally pleasantly warm temperatures, just a bit cooler next midweek as the high pulls west into the atlantic with a fresh Northerly breeze but that's soon cut off as the high drifts eastwards across the uk...low res is even better with areas of high pressure dominating our weather through late may.:) 

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Afternoon all.  Well after the exceptional bank holiday weather, there was predicted a downturn of course, but some of the models a few days ago predicting significant rainfall look wide of the mark now.  It's been cloudier and cooler of course, and now prospects are looking up again.  

Here's a GIF of the ICON 12z, next 7.5 days, and looks outstanding, where we go from here, the rest of the 12s should provide some guidance.

tempresult_ryh2.gif

UKMO solid at the end of the run:

UW144-21.GIF?12-18

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The big story so far on the 12 suite must be the GEM, here at T192, solid settled warm weather, super chart, home grown heat here, would feel great:

gem-0-192.png?12

GFS seems to be stuck at T132, but direction of travel looking good I'd say:

gfs-0-132.png?12

Edit: GEM done now, hope this comes off at day 10:

gem-0-240.png?12

2m temps:

gem-9-240.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

First time I've posted the ICON..and it won't be the last if it keeps showing charts like these from the 12z!:D

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168.png

icon-9-171.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The 12z ARPEGE at the end of the run T114, has the high placed pretty much perfectly for gorgeous summer weather:

arpegeeur-0-114.png?12

Loving the model output, looking forward to loving the actual weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It's been delayed tonight,but here's the GFS take on  things, here to T192:

tempresult_jvw0.gif

The signal for a UK high is now so consistent that I'm pretty sure it will happen next week! how long it lasts open to question, but all looks good from the models at the moment.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z is shaping up nicely, first of all we have a scandi  / azores high link up early next week with sunshine and warm temps into the low 20's celsius, especially tuesday. Midweek becomes cooler as a small feature to the NW of scotland drifts east to the north of scotland and as high pressure drifts further west the  winds briefly come in from the north but that's short-lived as high pressure then builds in from the west and becomes centred over the uk for a time before drifting NE into Scandinavia with pleasantly warm sunny spells but a few cold nights under clear skies with a touch of ground frost in prone spots but then by next weekend it becomes warmer by day and less chilly overnight and still largely fine with light winds and some pleasant mid may sunshine for most of the uk, later it becomes less settled and a bit cooler across the far w / nw..the run ends with high pressure building in from the southwest...plenty of predominantly fine pleasantly warm weather to come.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

not to keen on this though, looks like winter coats at 7.20am, mornings, especially Wed and Thurs, will be lucky to avoid a ground frost

ECM1-120.GIF?12-0

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