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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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Well we are around the halfway point of the Spring season and it seems a good time to start a new thread to continue discussions.

A look at the 00z ECM day 4 charts shows that finally some widespread warmth is on the way after the cold,damp and often cloudy conditions of recent weeks.

ecmt850_096.thumb.png.c1f68e16a55262bed15c3bb1474e948e.pngecm500_096.thumb.png.8016d8517315b56720c470718499be05.png

A developing Euro high and a stalling Atlantic trough pushing the jet stream further north and bringing the winds from a warmer south/south westerly direction.

A welcome change of pattern for most of us i would think.

Ok please continue :)

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

What a superb spell of weather is in front of us, the Gfs 6z shows conditions you would associate with high summer..not mid april!.even a risk of the heat sparking a few thunderstorms later!:shok::D🌞🌴 🔥..Enjoy:drinks:

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b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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yes Frosty, lot better, just get tomorrow's shocker rain out of the way (my location) as most areas will be dry tomorrow

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Even though I,m a cold and snow lover at heart. (Despite working outdoors). I must admit to looking foward to a spell of consistent warm temperatures  I love a cold/ snowy winter but backwards springs don,t really rock my boat. At all.  

i really enjoyed the patient winter ( I always thought it would come, especially after the SSW )wait for the snow to arrive latterly in March but now let's Move forward to a decent summer with some good hot spells for those who love that sort of thing, 

Then prepare ourselves for next winter which I have a feeling will make the one  just gone  look like a very tame affair.

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Some of the experienced posters in here have been prepared to comment on the weather we might expect in June based on a few warm days in April whereas I am not very confident of my interpretation of the current model output even at just +216 hours.  Oh, heck - I'll have a go anyway....we all have to start somewhere!

ECM and JMA seem to be almost on the same page with a more settled outlook around the 22/23 April:

image.thumb.gif.b175a60cfa7af4bc71077f75450bf9b6.gif  image.thumb.gif.e8ce2d5dbe1b9759d2f251650d76a866.gif

GFS and GEM however see things differently and are proposing more of an Atlantic influence bringing unsettled and cooler weather back again:

image.thumb.png.fcb0272566db9737b12febd2f17f6ae6.png   image.thumb.png.54b89fd707b8101800b383844daacfa9.png

So it does appear that the models can't agree yet on how the month will progress.  Perhaps things will stay warm and settled for many of us which would be a very welcome change from the cold early Spring we have endured this year.

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Posted (edited)

Heat lasting into Saturday for most of the country on the 06z. Much deserved after such a terrible March and April in terms of bright warm weather.

 

GFSOPME06_177_5.png

Edited by Snowy L
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Excellent run from UKMO 12z great to see the breakdown getting shunted away

UKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.37a8a37a9f02e839b6cac3017752bb8a.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.f52a48de4695f00ab9a13a817cf67d0e.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.42372bfa6e2174b897d00b6cec2176cd.png

After so much cloud and rain of late we really deserve this spell of settled warm weather long may it continue

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The Gfs 12z really cranks up the warmth next week, you could even call it heat with temps widely reaching the low to mid 20's celsius and a few favoured spots hitting 80F..amazing for mid april!..an early taste of summer is on the way for most of the uk.:)🌞

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Posted (edited)

Really impressive GEFS 12z mean next week with temperatures way above where they should be..it will make a welcome change won't it?...in summary next week shows a change to high pressure with increasing temps, sunshine and lighter winds, a chance of a T-Storm later next week but genuinely summery weather across the southern half of the uk with the warmest weather further south, somewhere across the s / se could hit 80F during the second half of next week, not as warm for scotland but a lot more pleasant than most of this spring so far.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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After weeks of waiting, we are finally seeing high pressure becoming more dominant

ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.d68a4714cf4d65ba37c5c9368eae4617.pngECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.b3ac0c7b5e11145266f47129feb1d9d8.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.452d3a8c10fa29a0adf4ecbbc8d83bea.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.9bedbaf38137832165dd27b53838ba31.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.8a55450fdfb06a7f9c8a91a363576e67.png

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The 12z is another amazing run for warmth long may it continue

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.f9d0fae15ac58e854138433deb3e778b.pngANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.5bc7b76562a150bfeb5af463935012f2.png

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Been watching the runs quietly the last few days, good to see the trend towards a high to our rest has been maintained for the coming week - although I think we not going to get the absolute A1 draw on warmth from Siberia, I think 22-25C is a good realistic target as a maximum later this week.

Further on, slightly unclear on the shape of the pattern into next week but a flow from the S or W still looks like the clever money to me, so I'm expecting temperatures to remain average or above, particularly further S and E.

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I must say I like the Ecm trend of rebuilding the azores ridge / high across the uk later in the run, hope that becomes the recurring pattern for the next five / six months because we would have a very good late spring / summer / early autumn if it does!🌞🌞🌞:)

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Posted (edited)

That time of year when it becomes summer sun thread no disrespect meant. :) 

A considerable pattern change on the way jet stream going over top for a sustained period nothing unusual more usual. Looks likely to remain on mild to rather warm side beyond weekend. The Azores high ridging in its been a very long time since we’ve seen it settle in. Likely to remain settled chance of rain for the far NW with cloud more likely to affect west best of the weather in the east -outlook looks good, the second half of April will be remembered as the polar opposite to first.

3E60E37D-ABB2-431A-8155-90CEF1378AB7.thumb.gif.e864633275096e70c9c063b03fd83f7c.gif

Edited by Daniel*
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It's notable from the model output at the moment that the low pressure systems are abnormally weak (possibly due to the recent final warming). No guarantee of long term warmth (they can just as easily park themselves over the UK/Scandinavia) but in this case it's doing us a lot of favours.

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The ECM 00z Op now has a breakdown occurring around the 23rd

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.b269d9588239bfce50fe70bb3ba0f607.png

Whilst this is backed to an extent by the ens the Op could be overcooking the depth of the lows

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.thumb.png.eecce08ac36c15aa965f9ac3cc862a1c.pnggraphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.a451913a40592c9b2cf8cce8cfb8ca98.png

A lot of warm settled weather ahead of any breakdown of which we've already seen it pushed back in recent days...

UKMO extended

ukm2.2018042200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.d3b2ad00251010d73b7654fafbead204.png

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A promising sequence from UKMO between +96 and +144 hr showing the Azores high linking hands with the Euro high....

19/04   image.thumb.gif.76a929aeee3e4e141c711bb729bda9e4.gif

20/04   image.thumb.gif.146b88bd5bf5d52a0ad6f0d04f87afa4.gif

21/04   image.thumb.gif.192c7ed0b6fc2d35fe5c4926704ae0c6.gif

This could keep the Atlantic at bay bringing about another settled spell for a few more days and keep most of us in drier, warmer conditions.  I'm hoping it works out that way....

 

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15 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z really cranks up the warmth next week, you could even call it heat with temps widely reaching the low to mid 20's celsius and a few favoured spots hitting 80F..amazing for mid april!.

12_123_mslp500.png

If anybody ever asks me to explain what a 'Spanish plume' is, I'm going to show them this image! 

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Lovely, looking forward to Tuesday onwards when we get an early taste of summer, perhaps for more than 6 days. A real bonus after the drab weather of the last 2-3 weeks.

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7-day forecast mean shows Europe widely above average

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.eca8171679894e37057e745bb0a0ce97.png

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Posted (edited)

A nice little taste of Summer in the coming week especially Wed/Sat.

Ens graph for Warks showing possible 21C on a couple of days and i am sure some favoured locations will peak higher than that.

viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20180415;tim

Of course knowing our climate and given that it is only April it's odds on that a change is usually waiting in the wings.Signs from the gefs and ecm of at least a partial breakdown looks likely after next week end as some energy from upstream sneaks through the Azores ridge early in week 2.

viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20180415;timecm500.192.png

Still a nice few days to look forward too in the meantime.

 

Edited by phil nw.
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12z UKMO keeps the high with us until the start of next weekend at least

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.76f279fe2fa8aa6f378cca1931d3b14e.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.5242fdabbeca0b4bdeb6e5327f853176.png

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After a taste of summer during the coming week, ECM takes us back into some chillier air as we move into the final full week of April

ECU0-216.GIF.thumb.png.c0cf2721ca5220c562439cf3762d34cb.pngECU0-240.GIF.thumb.png.7798bed1ef31663df76eefeca7984a1f.pngECU1-240.GIF.thumb.png.957e670189eead2a1c505812d267a7a1.png

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Posted (edited)

Hopefully only a blip. Please say this is the case 

Edited by ian34
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