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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

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Im looking out of my window @150M towards the Oxford storm which is about 50-70 miles away

because its so far theres a great view of the tops & all the lightning inside the structure -

amazing

3591C675-9DE9-48FE-88B0-CBD375B245A7.thumb.png.3aa19f8907143ae2b51d53395a16b8c4.png

3591C675-9DE9-48FE-88B0-CBD375B245A7.png

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Bit closer to them storms and got some amazing footage, what a treat! Didn't expect anything and how it managed to go the other way against all of today's storms I have no idea 

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2 hours ago, Biggin said:

Thats my missus. Sorry bout that :)

lol there has been lightning and a thunderstorm stuck to my northwest, for the past  6 hours

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Just a quick one. When a storm goes over water does it make it stronger? I’m aware of the precipitation aspect but just wondered how much it affects it

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I've just read on facebook a post from the local police that milton keynes has flooding of roads and homes.

We could see all the lightning coming from that way. Its stopped now but went on for a couple of hours. I hope the flooding isnt too bad there. 

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Just now, PurpleButterfly said:

I've just read on facebook a post from the local police that milton keynes has flooding of roads and homes.

We could see all the lightning coming from that way. Its stopped now but went on for a couple of hours. I hope the flooding isnt too bad there. 

There was severe flooding on the M1 Nottingham junctions and apparently the thunderstorms ‘damaged the surface of the road’ 🤔

Caused about 1/2 hour delay. Peh

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Managed to get a shot of the lightning. I have a few videos but I can't upload them as the file size is too large! If I make it smaller the quality isn't very good. 

20180527_214716.jpg

Edited by PurpleButterfly
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Finally have some acc cas here, very slow moving, which is unusual, if anything does develop, it may hang about a while.

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Storm forming of the channel to the south of rye and Hastings 

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1 hour ago, DonnaThw said:

Just a quick one. When a storm goes over water does it make it stronger? I’m aware of the precipitation aspect but just wondered how much it affects it

It can if the sea (or lake) surface temps are high enough - like what happens with hurricanes.

If storms are elevated (above the boundary layer) they can pass over water without getting too bothered by it - even if it’s cold (I think).

However, surface storms produced over land during daylight hours really don’t like crossing a body of water if it’s too cold, and usually fizzle out soon after leaving shore.

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Morning all. Considerably warmer than the past week, no doubt the rise in temperature will coincide with zero risk in the east 🙄

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Very very humid here this morning even under the low cloud and mist.. had some brightness already so expecting it to start burning back very soon... Only just on the edge of it.. 

I think similar storm time to yesterday today... It seems nocternul cooling was respoinsle for that light show yesterday evening.. Trying to sort videos out 

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2 rounds of potential storms today affecting different areas.. NOTE: Todays risk is all dependent on shifting low cloud 

EURO4 breaks out some showers don't take these too literally at to be honest, if they are as elevated as last night then most of us will see a show some people were recording those storms last night 120 miles away! They are just highlighting a risk but I have included my own little map where I think the greatest chance(s) are based on various model data

Peak heating around 12-3pm so thats when you want sunshine the strongest and the best clear spells

EURO4 

Precipitation EURO4 Mo 28.05.2018 15 GMT Precipitation EURO4 Mo 28.05.2018 18 GMT Precipitation EURO4 Mo 28.05.2018 21 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 00 GMT

AROME (Actually clawed back some respect over Saturday night and yesterdays storms)

preciprate_013.jpg?2018052800 preciprate_014.jpg?2018052800 preciprate_015.jpg?2018052800 preciprate_016.jpg?2018052800 preciprate_017.jpg?2018052800  preciprate_018.jpg?2018052800

 

 

Don't really know how well the ICON handles convective PPN but it is very similar to the above in areas..

overview_012.jpg?2018052800 overview_015.jpg?2018052800 overview_018.jpg?2018052800 

 

And Finally the in house model..

Netweather NMM Image Netweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM Image 

 

And there is a lot to tap into when they do blow up IF they do..

nmmuk-6-17-0.png?28-01 nmmuk-6-20-0.png?28-01 nmmuk-6-24-0.png?28-01

 

Risk areas.. For today's showers.. 

Black boxes are me taking a really random guess at where the worst storms will be..

2089855350_riskmonday280518.thumb.png.2eb905082f468e5b54068626731590c8.png

Then there is tonight and overnight into tomorrow morning which looks a little bit more tricky because not all models agree and there are lots of different suggestions.. 

EURO4 suggests that there will be on going elevated convection over Northern France associated with general warming of the day and nocturnal cooling producing some quite beefy thunderstorms HENCE Estofax level 2 for that area.. Now EURO4 is the most bullish about getting them to the UK but I would have thought that people who have missed out right in the South eastern corner will see a light show at the very least given how elevated these storms will be.. 

Precipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 00 GMT Precipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 03 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 06 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 09 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 12 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Tu 29.05.2018 15 GMT

 

AROME for tonight/tomorrow morning

preciprate_024.jpg?2018052800 preciprate_027.jpg?2018052800preciprate_030.jpg?2018052800preciprate_033.jpg?2018052800

Net weather in house model does not entertain the idea really with just a rough elevated shower on the South coast.. There is SOME energy to tap into but not near as much as during the day

nmmuk-28-31-0.png?28-01

Risk areas for tonight SHOULD anything sufficient make it.. 

636993613_riskmonday2805182.thumb.png.2061c5d8ed752d56f651857474195cb7.png

 

Edited by Surrey
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40 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Current temp. 21.9C, Dew Point 15.7C.

Temp here 23.7 with a DP of 17.9 the highest both have been since this warm thundery spell started.

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20 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

280EEC20-E166-48AF-80E1-5532D8ED8CA7.png.f3cd955ead1a3fb4b7239bc6afd7f3b5.png

Just a little bit of hope casting thrown in there too eh Surrey?

😉

Someone had to spot them lol, no it's based on a convergence zone but also thinking black box area should be put around Ipswich south as well 

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