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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    After the 00z runs, had  seemingly reached a consensus, re. the weather over the extended, Easter weekend. The 12z UKMO and GFS runs, have diverged again. The UKMO 12z, keeps us on the cold side, throughout and runs a low east, to our south, on Easter Sunday/Monday,

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    GFS 12z, however after introducing a cold-ish N to NE flow, early on Easter Sunday. GFS then goes on to develop a milder S to SE flow, over our region, during Easter Monday.

    gfs-0-90.png?12?12

    gfs-0-120.png?12?12

     

    In either of these scenarios, it wouldn't be a total surprise, for our region to experience a little wintriness, in any showers, that do form, on Easter Sunday.

    Not long to wait, to view ECMs, take on the situation over the weekend.

    Regards,

    Tom.

    Edited by TomSE12
    Added chart
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    Taken by a pal Hunstanton 

    glorious morning across Esher Common !! autumn is well and truly in full swing ..

    With the official stats now out, here's the Met Office chart comparing Summer 2018 with other similar years. For much of our Region 2018 was the hottest, but with some variations such as Norfolk and K

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Had about 3 hail showers in the space of half an hour.. Good start to spring showers! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Also looks like our first real chance at some thunder and lightning tomorrow! Oh how our weather never fails to keep us on our toes 

    nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.2538f0e48180a7ccbeab774ca34b6b83.png5abbd07b4540d_nmmuk3hrprecip(1).thumb.png.1dab5218f93361a4d6c981f95144e2ab.png

    5abbd08007353_nmmuk3hrprecip(2).thumb.png.e9de9dc4919e13a029c24bd1149c3d6d.png

    ukcapeli.thumb.png.40dcd617bb7f36741bba8695e1380838.png

    ukcapeli.thumb.png.40dcd617bb7f36741bba8695e1380838.png

    We need sun tomorrow till about 2ish would be ideal 

    ukcapeli (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester

    Temporary white covering with hail about 15 mins ago you can tell it’s April this weekend. Currently 6c and now just heavy rain .. !

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    I reakon I could scrape a frost tonight again 5.9c here...

    UKMO 12z brings a lot of wintryness to the SE over the weekend ...

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 hour ago, Surrey said:

    Also looks like our first real chance at some thunder and lightning tomorrow! Oh how our weather never fails to keep us on our toes 

    nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.2538f0e48180a7ccbeab774ca34b6b83.png5abbd07b4540d_nmmuk3hrprecip(1).thumb.png.1dab5218f93361a4d6c981f95144e2ab.png

    5abbd08007353_nmmuk3hrprecip(2).thumb.png.e9de9dc4919e13a029c24bd1149c3d6d.png

    ukcapeli.thumb.png.40dcd617bb7f36741bba8695e1380838.png

    ukcapeli.thumb.png.40dcd617bb7f36741bba8695e1380838.png

    We need sun tomorrow till about 2ish would be ideal 

    ukcapeli (1).png

    Wow the red blob in the channel looks interesting, reminds me of may last year.

    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    UKMO is really quite cold I don’t think we’re quite yet done with white stuff. Much to dismay of others a very wet day today although there were some sunny spells contrasting with ominous shower clouds.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    I reakon I could scrape a frost tonight again 5.9c here...

    UKMO 12z brings a lot of wintryness to the SE over the weekend ...

    Steve is there any sign of some Warmth and Spring Sunshine? I'm a massive coldie but that's winter done now for me, and after working in the rain all day today I'm sick of it!

    Really cannot wait now for some better weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    18 minutes ago, Matty J said:

    Steve is there any sign of some Warmth and Spring Sunshine? I'm a massive coldie but that's winter done now for me, and after working in the rain all day today I'm sick of it!

    Really cannot wait now for some better weather.

    Well if the low tracks up the west of the UK it will warm up quick however the consensus feel is towards the east- I think we are consigned to cold for another week yet....

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Awoke early, and unlike the last few mornings, with clear skies and moonlight, streaming through the bedroom windows. The last few mornings it's been a case of " Raindrops keep fallin' on my bed" (Apologies to Burt Bacharach and Hal David) No, our bathroom adaptation hasn't caused a hole in the roof!! Just a very bad pun, for way too early, in the morning. I'll get my Dressing-Gown!!

    I see the 12z ECM run , finally completed after I went to bed, last night. And it backed the GFS take on things, rather than UKMO. A cold start to the extended Easter weekend but trending much milder, during Easter Monday. As I stated last night, wouldn't be at all surprised to see a bit of wintriness, in showers that do form on Easter Sunday, the upper air still looks cold enough.

    ECM0-96.GIF

    In NON-RELATED weather news. "George the Builder", has completed all his work on adapting our bathroom. All that's left is for "sparkies" to finish installing the shower unit and others to come in and lay the flooring. Ascertained when talking to Lewisham's Borough Surveyor, that we're having a "level access shower room" and not a "wet room", installed. But George assures me, there will still be enough of a gradient to the flooring, for any water that escapes outside of the shower area, to be channelled towards the "water tray", drainage area. So hopefully no repeat of the scenario which befell my son and daughter, when they moved into their "new build" house, over in Chislehurst!! They have a "wet room", as my son, Antony, has advanced Huntington's Disease. Taylor/Wimpey's builders, had indeed created a gradient on their "wet room" floor but had angled it away from the drainage area and towards the door, of the bathroom!! Within a week of them moving in, water "escaped", out of the "wet room" and onto the landing, ruining a few hundreds pounds worth of newly laid, carpet and underlay. Quite rightly, my son and daughter received adequate compensation from Taylor/Wimpey, via their Housing Association, London and Quadrant. It was one of many "snagging problems" they encountered, on their arrival in Chislehurst.

    Off out, with wife Colette today, on an "Easter Egg Hunt". It's a tradition with my wife that, all the family should have an Easter Egg, despite their age. So were off out to get our "children" some. My son is 37 and my daughter 34. Antony has a passion for Mint Aero and as Sainsbury's don't stock them, it means a trek over to Tesco's, on the southern side of Bromley. Hopefully we can get all the family one, there. Hayley is a Galaxy Minstrels fan.,

    Want to get out early before the strong late March sunshine, gets a chance to help trigger some heavy, possibly thundery showers, later. I'm still somewhat Brontophobic and don't fancy getting caught outside, in lightning and thunder. :nonono:

    If you do get some thundery showers today, I hope all you Brontophiles, enjoy it.

    Regards,

    Tom.

    Edited by TomSE12
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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    Finished looking for the illusive -20c 850 hpa isotherm (deep blues) over UK (although it came very close this Winter/Spring)

    It's time to start looking for the +20c 850 hpa isotherm (reds)! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Still think it feasible, that any showers that develop in that cold-ish NE flow, on Easter Sunday, could contain some wintriness. Upper air, still pretty cold.

    ECM1-72.GIF

    ECM0-72.GIF

    Regards,

    Tom.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    28 minutes ago, Djmiles said:

    Going to need my thermals for the next week! :cold:

     

    A5F0E562-2FC7-43BB-9495-163406E6B967.png

    Lol I think something is broken.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    This morning in South Ockendon started with promising weather of lovely bright sunshine but sadly it did not last more than 2 hours.  The sky clouded over which led to heavy showers rain and cooler temperatures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Over 18C please!
  • Location: Ashford, Kent

    Bright and sunny this morning, nice in the greenhouse away from that nagging cold wind. Nasty cold rain now with a 'feels like' of 3C - even feeling cooler indoors, so heating turned up a notch AGAIN *grump*

    Getting fed up with this yo-yoing between winter and spring, it's not doing the garden much good either, several of my larger shrubs have died  :( 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    6 minutes ago, interested & confused said:

    Bright and sunny this morning, nice in the greenhouse away from that nagging cold wind. Nasty cold rain now with a 'feels like' of 3C - even feeling cooler indoors, so heating turned up a notch AGAIN *grump*

    Getting fed up with this yo-yoing between winter and spring, it's not doing the garden much good either, several of my larger shrubs have died  :( 

    Keep getting colder myself, as the air temp is so up and down. 

    Raining here now started around 2:30

    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex

    ‘orrible out there. Chucking it down since about 2. Which is a shame after a promising morning. Similar expected tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Thunder lightning hail rain hail more thunder mental in Ascot! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Bloody hell, what a sky! Hello storm season 2018

    DSC_0818.thumb.JPG.3667a4912db699b3e38c81fd5d3d93bb.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: hull
  • Weather Preferences: snow,fairly warm in summer
  • Location: hull

    lets hope the weather is good for all the important rugby league matches this weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Still feel there could be some wintry showers over our region, during Easter Sunday, in a still very cold N to NE flow.

    ECM1-72.GIF

    ECM0-72.GIF

    Then the weather turns much milder, during Easter Monday and IMO, even further north will only see, temporary snowfall,as milder air, floods north. Scotland should see more substantial snowfall, though.

    ECM1-96.GIF

    ECM0-96.GIF

    Then the GFS and ECM 12z runs diverge. GFS wants to introduce a very brief, "Dwarf from the North".

    gfs-0-180.png?12?12

    gfs-1-180.png?12?12

    Whilst ECM keeps it milder.

    ECM1-192.GIF

    ECM0-192.GIF

    With blocking over Greenland , then being shown to finally relinquish it's grip ,as we move deeper into April, will this have been the last "hurrah", or does "Mother Nature" still have some wintry surprises, in store??

    Regards,

    Tom.:hi:

     

     

     

     

     
     
     
     
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    Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl

    A maximum of just 8.8c here today and that was reached before midday, it's gone downhill since with rain and drizzle being blown about in gusty winds. A depressing day again.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    got thunder lightning hail torrential rain.....frogs the lot

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

    got thunder lightning hail torrential rain.....frogs the lot

    The April showers have certainly started early!

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